Examine our updated starting pitcher assessments and supplementary lineup construction aids designed to facilitate well-informed fantasy baseball roster selections. MLB predictive insights for the day’s scheduled contests will be included each morning. MLB contest probabilities are sourced from ESPN BET
, and all fantasy guidance aligns with ESPN 10-team configurations using standard scoring protocols.
Note: All data reflects its state at the time of distribution. For real-time changes, covering overnight developments and urgent updates that may influence today’s MLB matchups, ensure you consult the latest fantasy baseball bulletins.
Navigate to: Pitching insights | Hitting insights | Predictive betting
Bullpen resource chart
Pitchers to consider Thursday
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In his initial half-dozen professional appearances, Parker Messick has recorded four quality starts, contributing to a 4-2 record for the Cleveland Guardians during his outings. This Thursday, Messick is slated to participate in his most significant game to date, hosting the Detroit Tigers. Both teams are closely matched in the AL Central standings leading up to the final game of their three-game series. Messick’s ERA of 2.08 might appear overly favorable, yet his 31 strikeouts against only five walks in the initial 34 2/3 innings are commendable. Although the Tigers perform well against left-handed pitchers, Messick’s recent performance, home-field advantage, and the game’s critical nature position him favorably for consideration.
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Nick Lodolo‘s availability is marginally higher than the standard 50% threshold, but given the Cincinnati Reds’ quest for a playoff berth and the Pittsburgh Pirates’ season conclusion, the Reds’ left-hander is worth a streaming attempt. While Lodolo’s recent performances aren’t exceptional, his strikeout rate of 23.8% surpasses the average, and his walk rate of 4.6% is notably lower. The Pirates’ offense showcases the third-lowest wOBA and the second-highest strikeout rate against left-handers at the Great American Ballpark.
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Following a temporary transition to the bullpen in early September, Michael Lorenzen rejoined the Kansas City Royals’ rotation and effectively contained the Toronto Blue Jays, limiting the AL East leaders to one run across 7 2/3 innings. Lorenzen’s concluding start of the season presents an appealing opportunity against the Los Angeles Angels. While Lorenzen is not particularly known for generating strikeouts, the Angels lead the league in strikeout frequency against right-handers.
Pitchers to potentially overlook Thursday
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Thursday’s slate offers a limited selection of compelling streaming options. A general guideline suggests prioritizing starters engaged in pivotal games for their respective teams. This includes Brayan Bello, who is scheduled to pitch for the Boston Red Sox in their away game against the Blue Jays. The Blue Jays have secured their postseason entry but are still vying for the AL East title and the top seed. The Red Sox are in control of their wild card aspirations but haven’t officially clinched a playoff spot. Bello is currently experiencing a downturn, having lost his previous two starts. More critically, his performance hasn’t been particularly strong, marked by a modest strikeout rate of 17.9%, and the Blue Jays exhibit one of the league’s lowest strikeout frequencies. Typically, this segment features pitchers rostered in over half of ESPN leagues, yet since Bello is ranked as the slate’s foremost streaming option, a cautionary recommendation is warranted.
Premier pitching advantages for today
Seattle Mariners pitchers versus Rockies hitters
Offensive performance: A | Park rating: A+ | Umpire influence: C | Temperature factor: A | Wind effect: C | Home advantage
A typical pitcher is projected to achieve an ERA of 2.88 under these conditions.
Minnesota Twins pitchers versus Rangers hitters
Offensive performance: B | Park rating: A | Umpire influence: D | Temperature factor: B- | Wind effect: C | Away game
A typical pitcher is projected to achieve an ERA of 3.77 under these conditions.
New York Yankees pitchers versus White Sox hitters
Offensive performance: B | Park rating: B | Umpire influence: D | Temperature factor: C- | Wind effect: C | Home advantage
A typical pitcher is projected to achieve an ERA of 3.78 under these conditions.
Challenging pitching matchups for today
Chicago White Sox pitchers versus Yankees hitters
Offensive performance: F | Park rating: B | Umpire influence: D | Temperature factor: C- | Wind effect: C | Away game
A typical pitcher is projected to achieve an ERA of 5.45 under these conditions.
Miami Marlins pitchers versus Phillies hitters
Offensive performance: F | Park rating: D | Umpire influence: C | Temperature factor: C- | Wind effect: D | Away game
A typical pitcher is projected to achieve an ERA of 5.30 under these conditions.
Arizona Diamondbacks pitchers versus Dodgers hitters
Offensive performance: F | Park rating: D | Umpire influence: B | Temperature factor: D+ | Wind effect: C | Home advantage
A typical pitcher is projected to achieve an ERA of 4.84 under these conditions.
Hitters to consider Thursday
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Braxton Ashcraft is often overshadowed among the emerging pitchers of the Pirates, yet he’s concluding a promising initial season. However, the 25-year-old right-hander’s playing time has been reduced towards the season’s end, implying the Reds will also face a less formidable Pirates bullpen for a significant portion of their NL Central game. TJ Friedl, Spencer Steer, Noelvi Marte, Gavin Lux, Austin Hays, and Tyler Stephenson are potential candidates to bolster a lineup on a day featuring only 12 games.
Optimal hitting advantages for today
Houston Astros LHB versus Athletics pitchers
Starting Pitcher Quality: B | Bullpen Quality: A+ | Park rating: B | Umpire influence: A | Catcher Framing: C | Temperature factor: B | Wind effect: B | Away game
A typical hitter is projected to achieve a .348 wOBA under these conditions.
Philadelphia Phillies LHB versus Marlins pitchers
Starting Pitcher Quality: B | Bullpen Quality: B | Park rating: C | Umpire influence: C | Catcher Framing: C | Temperature factor: C | Wind effect: B | Home advantage
A typical hitter is projected to achieve a .345 wOBA under these conditions.
Athletics LHB versus Astros pitchers
Starting Pitcher Quality: C | Bullpen Quality: A | Park rating: B | Umpire influence: A | Catcher Framing: B | Temperature factor: B | Wind effect: B | Home advantage
A typical hitter is projected to achieve a .344 wOBA under these conditions.
Challenging hitting matchups for today
Colorado Rockies RHB versus Mariners pitchers
Starting Pitcher Quality: C | Bullpen Quality: D | Park rating: F | Umpire influence: C | Catcher Framing: F | Temperature factor: D | Wind effect: C | Away game
A typical hitter is projected to achieve a .272 wOBA under these conditions.
Arizona Diamondbacks LHB versus Dodgers pitchers
Starting Pitcher Quality: F | Bullpen Quality: F | Park rating: B | Umpire influence: D | Catcher Framing: C | Temperature factor: C | Wind effect: C | Home advantage
A typical hitter is projected to achieve a .280 wOBA under these conditions.
Boston Red Sox RHB versus Blue Jays pitchers
Starting Pitcher Quality: D | Bullpen Quality: D | Park rating: C | Umpire influence: C | Catcher Framing: D | Temperature factor: D | Wind effect: C | Away game
A typical hitter is projected to achieve a .290 wOBA under these conditions.
Predictive Analysis
Superior/inferior pitcher/hitter alignments and anticipated betting outcomes are derived from THE BAT X, a methodology developed by Derek Carty leveraging sophisticated techniques employed by MLB management, considering diverse variables such as player skill, stadium features, bullpen strength, atmospheric conditions, umpire tendencies, defensive strategies, catcher pitch-framing expertise, among others. Comprehensive betting forecasts for all players, teams, and games can be accessed at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value quantifies the merit of a wager, assessing the likelihood of winning against the offered odds. A $1.00 stake on a bet with a $25 Expected Value, placed 100 times, would anticipate a cumulative profit of $25 on the $100 investment despite individual wins and losses.
Key Home Run prop opportunities today
Francisco Alvarez | OVER 0.5 HR (+500)
Forecast: 20% chance of success, with an EV of $20.24
Supporting factor: A pronounced increase in Alvarez’s exit velocity on flyballs has been observed recently, with an average of 99.9 mph in the last week compared to a season average of 96.5 mph.
Francisco Lindor | OVER 0.5 HR (+400)
Forecast: 23% chance of success, with an EV of $14.75
Supporting factor: Lindor’s launch angle has increased to 18.1 degrees over the past two weeks, up from his season average of 14.5 degrees.
Matt McLain | OVER 0.5 HR (+800)
Forecast: 13% chance of success, with an EV of $13.22
Supporting factor: McLain’s Barrel% has surged in the past week, from his 2025 rate of 7.8% to 37.5%.
Key Pitcher prop opportunities today
Braxton Ashcraft | UNDER 4.5 K (-110)
Forecast: 62% chance of success, with an EV of $20.85
Supporting factor: Ashcraft’s strikeout rate of 9.09 K/9 is higher than his projected true-talent level of 8.60 — a deviation of 0.49 K/9.
Drew Rasmussen | OVER 3.5 K (-155)
Forecast: 70% chance of success, with an EV of $22.25
Supporting factor: Adam Hamari, known for favoring pitchers, will likely oversee the strike zone today.
Nolan McLean | UNDER 5.5 K (-160)
Forecast: 70% chance of success, with an EV of $22.03
Supporting factor: The Chicago Cubs are projected to have the fifth-lowest strikeout-prone lineup on the slate today, with an underlying K% of 21.6.
Top YRFI/NRFI opportunities today
White Sox @ Yankees | YRFI (-110)
Forecast: 54% chance of RUN with a $3.86 EV
Mets @ Cubs | YRFI (+105)
Forecast: 51% chance of RUN with a $3.57 EV
Dodgers @ D-Backs | NRFI (-115)
Forecast: 54% chance of NO RUN with a $2.13 EV
