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Jump to: Pitching notes | Hitting notes | Betting tips
Reliever depth chart
Pitchers to consider on Tuesday
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Notwithstanding a few late-season stumbles, Shane Smith presents a 2.84 earned run average and 0.95 walks plus hits per inning pitched ever since the mid-season point, accumulating 122 strikeouts across 131 innings. Most Rule 5 draft selections spend their season in relief roles, assuming that they aren’t sent back to their original franchises. Smith might start as many as 29 games. His 27th comes at home against the Baltimore Orioles. Injuries and unproductive hitters have the Orioles observing the rest of the AL East battle for a playoff spot. The White Sox have likewise been eliminated from contention, but that hasn’t hampered Smith, who boasts a 3-0 record, a 2.25 ERA, and a 0.71 WHIP across his previous four appearances.
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Accruing three consecutive victories, Eduardo Rodriguez is assisting the Arizona Diamondbacks in remaining competitive for the third NL wild card position. He commences the season’s second-to-last week with an important home contest versus the San Francisco Giants. The Giants lead the Diamondbacks by half a game, while trailing the New York Mets by one and a half games for the final wild card. Rodriguez has attained a 0.49 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP over his last three games, all of which were quality starts. The Giants possess the lowest weighted on-base average when facing left-handed pitchers.
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Cade Horton is the presumptive favorite for NL Rookie of the Year. He’s built a strong case with a 7-1 record, a 0.94 ERA, a 0.78 WHIP, and 42 strikeouts across his last nine outings, comprising 47 2/3 innings. He’s presented with a prime opportunity to maintain his momentum when the Chicago Cubs visit the Pittsburgh Pirates. Horton is set to compete against the league’s lowest-scoring team.
Pitchers to be cautious of on Tuesday
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The Mets plan to utilize Clay Holmes and Sean Manaea in conjunction on Tuesday, and potentially for the remainder of the season. Even if this approach bolsters Holmes’ statistics, he will probably only manage four innings at most, thereby capping his strikeout potential while negating any chance for a victory. Indeed, Manaea represents a better selection given his eligibility for the win as a multi-inning reliever. Regardless, neither is advised when the Mets host the San Diego Padres at Citi Field.
Ideal Pitching Matchups Today
Atlanta Braves pitchers vs. Nationals hitters
Offense: B | Park: A | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: B | Wind: B | Away
The typical pitcher should expect a 3.81 ERA in these conditions.
Milwaukee Brewers pitchers vs. Angels hitters
Offense: C | Park: B | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: C+ | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher could achieve a 3.84 ERA in this matchup.
Houston Astros pitchers vs. Rangers hitters
Offense: C | Park: B | Umpire: B | Temperature: C+ | Wind: C | Home
The typical pitcher would likely manage a 3.97 ERA in this environment.
Challenging Pitching Matchups Today
Philadelphia Phillies pitchers vs. Dodgers hitters
Offense: F | Park: F | Umpire: C | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Away
The typical pitcher might expect a 5.60 ERA in this setting.
Minnesota Twins pitchers vs. Yankees hitters
Offense: F | Park: D | Umpire: C | Temperature: D- | Wind: C | Home
The average pitcher would be expected to achieve a 5.45 ERA under these circumstances.
Miami Marlins pitchers vs. Rockies hitters
Offense: A | Park: F | Umpire: N/A | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Away
The average pitcher would likely post a 5.38 ERA in this situation.
Hitters to consider on Tuesday
Favorable Hitting Matchups Today
Colorado Rockies batters vs. Marlins pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: A | Park: A+ | Framing: C | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Home
The typical hitter can expect a .357 wOBA in these conditions.
Miami Marlins batters vs. Rockies pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: B | Park: A+ | Framing: C | Temperature: D | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter should achieve a .356 wOBA in this matchup.
New York Yankees LHB vs. Twins pitchers
SP: C | Bullpen: A+ | Park: B | Umpire: B | Framing: B | Temperature: B | Wind: C | Away
The typical hitter is expected to post a .341 wOBA in this environment.
Difficult Hitting Matchups Today
Washington Nationals LHB vs. Braves pitchers (Game 2)
SP: F | Bullpen: B | Park: F | Framing: C | Temperature: D | Wind: D | Home
The average hitter could expect a .252 wOBA in these conditions.
Chicago Cubs RHB vs. Pirates pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: C | Umpire: A | Framing: C | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The typical hitter would likely post a .272 wOBA in this scenario.
Los Angeles Angels RHB vs. Brewers pitchers
SP: F | Bullpen: C | Park: D | Framing: D | Temperature: C | Wind: C | Away
The average hitter can anticipate a .276 wOBA under these circumstances.
Betting tips
Optimal/suboptimal pitcher/hitter matchups and betting estimations are calculated via THE BAT X, a mechanism developed by Derek Carty, utilizing contemporary methodologies employed in MLB front offices, considering aspects such as player ability, ballparks, bullpens, weather patterns, umpires, fielding, catcher pitch-framing skills, among various factors. Betting evaluations for each player, team, and contest are available at EV Analytics.
Note: Projected Value indicates the quality of a bet, assessing its probability of success relative to the offered odds. By consistently betting $1.00 on a pick displaying a Projected Value of $25, one can expect to realize a profit of $25 on a total outlay of $100 over multiple iterations.
