UFC Baku goes down this weekend (Sat., June 21, 2025) inside Baku Crystal Hall in Baku, Azerbaijan. To earn their massive site fee (from another questionable source), UFC is bringing out recent Light Heavyweight title challengers for the main event. Jamahal Hill vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. was supposed to go down in Kansas City, but after Hill withdrew, UFC decided to send these two out to the South Caucasus.
UFC Baku’s co-main event has Azerbaijan’s own Rafael Fiziev taking on Ignacio Bahamondes in the Lightweight division. Fiziev is coming off a short notice loss to Justin Gaethje, while Bahamondes is soaring right now after a stoppage of Jalin Turner (watch highlights).
The remainder of the main card is designed to lure local interest. Among those fights are Curtis Blaydes vs. Rizvan Kuniev (another rebooked fight), Nazim Sadykhov vs. Nikolas Motta and Muhammad Naimov vs. Bogdan Grad. The main card also features Myktybek Orolbai vs. Tofiq Musayev. Musayev, a former RIZIN champ, has been signed specifically for this card.
UFC Baku’s “Prelims” are headlined by Seokhyeon Ko vs. Oban Elliott. Elliott slides over to Azerbaijan after not getting a visa to fight in Vegas (guess that White House connection isn’t all it’s cracked up to be). The “Prelims” also include Tagir Ulanbekov vs. Azat Maksum and Ismail Naurdiev vs. Jun Yong Park.
As always, there’s lots to bet on this card and we’ve got odds for all the fights below:
UFC Baku Main Card Money Line Odds
Jamahal Hill (+105) vs. Khalil Rountree Jr. (-125)
This is a match-up of the one of UFC’s most likeable Light Heavyweights and Jamahal Hill.
Rountree Jr. earned heaps of praise with his very gutsy performance opposite Alex Pereira last year. A lot of people snorted at the fact Rountree was getting a title shot after a year on the sidelines (due to a PED test failure) and a win over Anthony Smith. However, Rountree gave us an excellent fight and hurt Pereira a few times before he was worn down and finished in the fourth round (see it here).
Hill fought Pereira in 2024, too. That didn’t go well. Pereira TKO’d him in the first round and then dunked on him to create an MMA photo for the ages (see it here). After that Hill was finished, in the third round, by Jiri Prochazka (see it here).
Hill’s last win was against Glover Teixiera in 2023, where he won the Light Heavyweight title. He’s suffered with shoulder and knee injuries since then.
This is a kickboxing match through and through with neither man likely interesed in taking the other down. Neither of these guys have ever attempted a takedown in UFC, let alone landed one.
Hill has a three-inch reach advantage and lands a ton more offense than Rountree. Hill lands 7.05 significant strikes a minute. That leads the division. He only absorbs 4.02 sig. strikes a minute, giving him a very healthy striking differential.
Rountree’s stats are less impressive. He lands just 3.73 sig. strikes a minute, which is below average. He absorbs 4.51 sig. strikes a minute. Negative striking differentials are a big red flag for me.
An X-factor in this fight is durability, though. Rountree can, and has, taken a lot of punishment in his career and has been able to withstand a lot of it, despite being finished with strikes three times.
Hill has been finished three times, too. Though, one of those was that weird loss to Paul Craig where his arm got injured (see it here).
The optics on Hill are that he is less durable than Rountree, thanks to his last two losses and Rountree’s epic beating at the hands of Pereira.
I’m not sure that’s fair, though. I think a lot of people are looking for reasons to pick Rountree over Hill since Hill is so unlikeable. Hey, I’m with them, I don’t find Hill that appealing either. But I do think he might be the better fighter in this match-up and that his line is benefitting from fan distaste more than smart money.
I think Hill should be a moderate favorite in this fight. His pick ‘em line is tempting to me. But, I’m also not that enthusiastic about betting on him, because I’m not his biggest fan and I think he can still get slept by Rountree.
Because of that, I’m looking at round totals and methods of victory in this fight.
The round total is set at 3.5 with the over at +170 and the under at -220. Exact method of victory – KO/TKO/DQ is a laughable -400. You can get +300 if you think both these guys can make it through all five rounds and we see a decision (I don’t).
Winning Round is a nice prop bet over on DraftKings. You can get +240 for a first round finish and +330 for a second round finish. Third, fourth and fifth round finishes are +450, +700 and +1100 respectively. That’s definitely worth throwing a dart at since this fight feels so likely to end inside the distance.
Of those possibilities I like the second round finish. That accounts for some feeling out in the first and the toughness of Rountree, in case it’s Hill who shows he’s the much better striker in this one.
For my best bet here, I’m picking something rather conservative. I’ll find a tastier prop bet in my long shot section. I think this one probably ends somewhere around the second or third round, for that reason, I don’t think we’re going to get any “championship rounds” on Saturday.
Best bet: Fight to Start Round 4 – No (-180)
Rafael Fiziev (+105) vs. Ignacio Bahamondes (-125)
All eyes will be on Fiziev in his return to Azerbaijan here. However, I think he’s been set up to fail. Bahamondes is a problem at Lightweight and I think he’s going to send a message to the division in Baku.
Since dropping a decision to L’udovit Klein, Bahamondes has been on a tear. He has three straight “Performance of the Night”-winning performances. Those include a head kick knockout on Christos Giagos (see it here), a right hook finish over Manuel Torres (see it here), and a triangle choke on Jalin Turner (see it here).
The win over Torres saw the 27 year-old Chilean spoil the Noche UFC vibes for Torres and the crowd. I think he spoils things for Fiziev in Baku, too.
Fiziev, on the other hand, is on a three-fight losing skid. Two of those fights were decision losses to Justin Gaethje. The first of those was very competitive, the second (Fiziev’s most recent fight), not so much. The other loss was a leg injury induced TKO to Mateusz Gamrot.
That second Gaethje fight was only in March. Fiziev’s last win, a KO of Rafael dos Anjos, was in 2022.
This is going to be a striking match-up, with neither man that interested in taking things to the ground. Fiziev is the more likely to go for a takedown. He might find that tough to do, though, given that Bahamondes’ primary training partner is Belal Muhammad and he has a 81.8 percent takedown defense (fifth highest in the division).
If this is going to play out on the feet, I think Bahamondes will be too long and dynamic for Fiziev to handle. Fiziev is a very dynamic striker himself, with lots of tricks up his sleeve, but I think his best years are behind him. Bahamondes’ best years are ahead of us.
Fiziev lands 4.85 sig, strikes a minute. That’s pretty average. He absorbs marginally more than that (4.95). There’s that red flag, again.
Bahamondes lands over seven sig. strikes a minute, which puts him at fourth in the division (behind Terrance McKinney, Manuel Torres and Estaban Ribovics). Bahamondes is also seventh in striking differential (he abosrbs just 4.36 sig. strikes a minute). Bahamondes is also sixth in knockdowns per minute.
With Fiziev and Bahamondes absorbing roughly the same amount of strikes, but ahamondes landing way more of them, I think we might see Fiziev wilt the pressure on Saturday.
Granted, we’ve not seen Fiziev get overwhelmed much in his UFC career. But I am just very high on Bahamondes. Bahamondes also fights with a lot of verve and confidence. I don’t think this occasion will get him. It didn’t at Sphere, last year. I think he’ll have fun in there with Fiziev and piece together nasty combinations before getting a finish.
The point spread is Bahamondes -3.5 at +140. That’s very tempting for me, especially since I can see a finish coming for Bahamondes.
Bahamondes by KO/TKO/DQ is +400. That’s also very tempting. I’m going to go conservative with Bahamondes here, but look out for my long shots below where I’ll go for something nutty.
Best bet: Ignacio Bahamondes -3.5 (+140)
Curtis Blaydes (-258) vs. Rizvan Kuniev (+210)
Third time’s a charm, right?
This match-up was supposed to happen in February and was then reschedule for UFC 313 in March. The March fight didn’t happen after Blaydes got sick on fight day. This has all meant that Kuniev has had to wait almost a year to make his UFC debut after getting first round technical knockout on Contender Series.
Prior to that, Kuniev has fought in PFL and Eagle FC, where he was Heavyweight champ.
Blaydes was crushed in a minute by Tom Aspinall in his last fight (see it here). Before that, he finished Jailton Almeida, in a fight he was losing (see that here).
This is Heavyweight so anything can happen. But, I think Blaydes is too big and too good a wrestler for Kuniev, a pretty one dimensional Heavyweight, to handle. I’m not expecting much fireworks in this one. It could be a pretty dull lay-and-pray affair from Blaydes.
Best bet: Curtis Blaydes moneyline (-258)
Tofiq Musayev (+140) vs. Myktybek Orolbai (-166)
Musayev might get the biggest crowd pop of the night. Yes, Fiziev is more famous in the U.S., but Musayev has been fighting to big crowds in this part of the world and further east for awhile. During the recent conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, Musayev also put his career on hold to serve in the military. This partisan crowd will love that.
As a fighter, Musayev is best known for lifting a RIZIN Lightweight title after beating Patricky Pitbull in a 2019 tournament. In RIZIN, he beat Johnny Case, Damien Brown and Daron Cruickshank. His only loss was to the very dangerous submission artist Roberto Satoshi. Musayev recently had a stop in Bellator where he KO’d Sidney Outlaw and then lost to an Alexander Shabily body kick.
He most recently fought at RIZIN’s Landmark show here in Baku. He won that fight, over Koji Takeda, by technical knockout.
Orolbai, meanwhile, hasn’t fought since Oct. 2024 when he and Mateusz Rebecki put down a Fight of the Year candidate. Rebecki won that fight, by split decision, after both men did an ungodly amount of damage to each other. In that fight, Orolbai took a lot of the damage early and took a while to respond and almost win back the fight. That was his first loss in UFC after impressive wins over Elves Brener and Uros Medic.
Orolbai is a wild man. If he fights Musayev like he fought Rebecki, though, I think he gets put down. Orolbai showed tremendous toughness in the Rebecki fight, but that kind of damage can take something from a fighter. Remember when Chang Sung Jung earned his Korean Zombie nickname against Leonard Garcia and was then immediately KO’d by George Roop?
Orolbai, a former Welterweight, is a lot bigger than Musayev. But I think Musayev’s stirking is fast and hard enough to level the scales in that regard. I also think the crowd support will be a considerable factor in firing up Musayev and helping him fight his best fight.
The round total for this one is set at 1.5. That’s a little low, but I get it. These guys only know how to attack. Orolbai’s toughness and slow start has me thinking this one goes over.
I’ll avoid round betting here and just stick with the hometown favorite.
Best bet: Tofiq Musayev moneyline (+140)
Nazim Sadykhov (-455) vs. Nikolas Motta (+350)
Sadykhov looked great in his last fight. His win over Ismael Bonfim went down as a doctor’s stoppage, but this wasn’t one of those funky endings. This was a legitimate stoppage with Bonfim’s eye getting messed up due to a beautiful question mark kick Sadykhov threw in the first round. Sadykhov is quietly undefeated in UFC with wins over Terrance McKinney and Evan Elder and an exciting draw opposite Viacheslav Borshchev.
Brooklyn’s Sadykhov is of Azeri heritage, so expect the roof to blow off when he walks out on Saturday.
Motta, meanwhile, is coming off a decision win over Maheshate Hayisaer. Prior to that he TKO’d Tom Nolan (as a +275 underdog). Motta has two stoppage losses in UFC. In 2023 he was ended by a Manuel Torres elbow (see it here). And, in his UFC debut, he was stopped by Jim Miller (see it here).
I think Sadykhov is on the rise, but he’s going to be tested here by Motta. Sadykhov has very nice striking and he sprinkles in a little bit of wrestling (averaging one and half takedowns a fight).
Motta is all striking. He pins his hopes on good takedown defense. He’s got an 82 percent rating there, so he’s pretty hard to take down. The only person who has managed that is Trey Ogden, who is a better than average wrestler and who needed 16 attempts to get those.
That takedown defense means we are probably going to be spending this entire fight standing. Sadykhov is the big favorite with Vegas, but I’m going to preach caution on his line here.
I think he’s probably going to win, but I think it’s going to be close. And if the occasion gets the better of Sadykhov (it’s probably going to be quite emotional and potentialy distracting fighting in Azerbaijan for the first time) then there could be an upset on the books.
The round total on this fight is another 1.5 rounds and I think that’s a little off. I’ll take the over there, believing this is a close fight that will go to the judges.
Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-120)
UFC Baku ‘Prelims’ Under Card Odds
Muhammad Naimov (-290) vs. Bogdan Grad (+235)
Naimov looked very solid in a pretty dominant unanimous decision over recent TUF finalist Kaan Ofli. That followed a loss to “Jungle Boy” Felipe Lima. The Lima fight was competitive, with Lima coming in on short notice. Lima looks like a very exciting prospect so I’m not mad at Naimov getting subbed by him late (see that finish here).
Grad came off a war with Michael Aswell on Contender Series to book a debut fight with Lucas Alexander in February. Alexander started that fight well but then gassed out and was finished by Grad in the second, by ground and pound (see it here).
This could be a Fight of the Night. Both Naimov and Grad are very tough and quite versailte with good striking, wrestling and grappling.
Grad fights a lot more chaotic than Naimov. He lands 5.83 sig. strikes per minute but absorbs an absurd 7.84. That number, calculated through three Octagon appearances, is warped by the 155 strikes he took in his win over Aswell (he landed 102 in return). His numbers will likely regress towards the mean after a few more fights, but those numbers are still quite concerning.
Naimov also has a sig. strike deficit, though it’s less extreme. He lands 2.94 sig. strikes a minute and absorbs 3.77. Naimov’s numbers have been calculated over six contests. Strangely, he’s landed less strikes in most of his UFC fights. The only fights he’s landed more in were against Ofli (where he landed 32 to Ofli’s 31) and in his win over Erik Silva (where he landed 1 to Silva’s 0, before Silva got injured).
In his loss to Lima he was outstruck 37-30. In his win over Nathaniel Wood he was outstruck 50-48. In his win over Jamie Mullarkey he was outstruck 39-28. In his Contender Series loss to Collin Anglin he was outstruck 88-52.
If this fight just happens on the feet, then I think Grad is going to find some success. His striking should get through Naimov’s pourous guard and he might even have the power to stun him.
If Naimov is smart, he’ll be looking to minizmie his striking exposure through wrestling. Problem is, Grad is a very willing wrestler, too. I think we could see a bit of stalemate with wrestling, with a lot of time spent on the fence with both men reversing positions a lot. Naimov looks a little bigger and more muscled than Grad, so he might be able to pin Grad to the fence for longer periods of time.
Ultimately, I think this fight is too close to call. For some reason Vegas set the round total for this fight at 1.5, too. That is way off, in my opinion. I think this is heading for a decision. So do most people, though. The over is currently -250. I’d rather take that than pick a winner here. I do slightly favor Grad, but not enough to go in on the underdog.
Best bet: Over 1.5 rounds (-250)
Seokhyeon Ko (+390) vs. Oban Elliott (-520)
Elliott looked incredible in his last fight, schooling and then KOing Bassil Hafez to win a Performance of the Night bonus under the bright lights of Madison Square Garden (see it here). That was his eighth win in a row (three in UFC). He was then due to fight in the APEX opposite Ramiz Brahimaj. Maybe he’s lucky he didn’t meet Brahimaj given how good he looked that night in the APEX. Elliott will instead get another big stadium and a much more beatable name in the form of Ko who is coming off Contender Series.
Elliott is one of the biggest favorites on the card for a reason. And I think he’ll get the job done inside the distance, again.
Best bet: Under 2.5 rounds (+124)
Ismail Naurdiev (+164) vs. Jun Yong Park (-198)
Naurdiev cruised to a decision over Bruno Silva last time out, giving the Brazilian his fourth loss in a row (Silva was then hospitalized by Marc-Andre Barriault six months later). That was Naurdiev’s return fight to the UFC after a four year absense. His spot on that card was earned due to the fact this was going down in Abu Dhabi. Naurdiev is a known quantity for those fans, due to his history in BRAVE CF between UFC stints.
Park looked strong when he took a split decision over Brad Tavares in a fun fight. ‘“The Iron Turtle” was dropped in that fight, but was able to regroup and land takedowns on Tavares (something very few have ever accomplished) to get the close decision win. Before that, he lost a split decision to Andre Muniz. The Muniz loss broke a streak of three straight rear naked choke wins for the South Korean.
Park’s activity and motor should be enough to get past Naurdiev, who is not especially excellent at any one thing. Naurdiev is good defensively, so I don’t think Park will land a big shot that wobbles him. Park doesn’t need to do that, though. He can earn decisions due to his relentless forward movement and how positive/aggressive he is. Whether someone lands or not is a bonus for most judges nowadays.
Naurdiev might land a nice counter or two on Park, but I don’t think it will be enough to dominate the narrative of the fight. If Park can land a takedown or two, which I suspect he can and will, then it’s a wrap.
Best bet: Jun Yong Park moneyline (-198)
Daria Zhelezniakova (+220) vs. Melissa Mullins (-270)
Zhelezniakova looked rusty when Ailin Perez took her down, submitted her and then twerked on her head (see it here). Prior to this, “The Iron Lady” took a decision over Montserrat Rendon in her promotional debut.
In the opposite corner, Mullins’ two UFC wins are over the other two women fighting on this card: Klaudia Sygula and Irina Alekseeva. In her other UFC fight, she lost to Nora Cornolle by head kick.
Mullins is a big Bantamweight, as shown by her missing weight for both the Sygula and Cornolle fights.
This is a really inane fight to make. Mullins beat Zhelezniakova by first round ground and pound in 2022. I think this is one of those fights where if you told the UFC matchmakers it was a rematch they would say, “Oh yeah?” and then shrug. They clearly don’t care about these undercards (so why should you, right?).
Anyways… rant over. Mullins is big, physical and aggressive. I expect she overwhelms Zhelezniakova, again.
Best bet: Under 2.5 rounds (-135)
Irina Alekseeva (-278) vs. Klaudia Sygula (+225)
Neither of these women are UFC quality (if that’s even a thing nowadays). Both women are coming off losses to Melissa Mullins, who is barely UFC quality herself.
Before her Mullins fight, Alekseeva defeated Stephanie Egger with a knee bar (see it here) in a Bantamweight fight where she weighed in at 140 pounds. That was her UFC debut.
Sygula’s Mullins fight was her debut.
Sygula looked terrible in that fight. She looked like she didn’t want to be there. Alekseeva at least seems to have more of “that dog in her.”
Best bet: Irina Alekseeva moneyline (-278)
Tagir Ulanbekov (-425) vs. Azat Maksum (+330)
Ulanbekov returned from a year long absence to defeat Clayton Carpenter at UFC 311 in January. He smothered Carpenter in that fight, earning a very Team Khabib kinda win. His previous win was a submission over Cody Durden.
Ulanbekov was supposed to fight Kyoji Horiguchi at this event. The former UFC title challenger has won it all in Bellator and RIZIN since getting armbarred by Demetrious Johnson in the last second of their fight in 2015. Horiguchi pulled out of this fight last month, dealing this card a massive blow.
Maksun, meanwhile, has stepped in to take his place. The Kazakh Killer is 1-1 in UFC with a split decision win over Tyson Nam and a unanimous decision loss to Charles Johnson (in a “Fight of the Night”).
Ulanbekov will be in the title picture soon enough at 125 pounds. He’s facing a fellow wrestler here. But, he should be far better on the ground than Maksun.
With the odds as they are, I’ll go for the over instead — believing this is a wrestle heavy fight that goes the distance.
Best bet: Over 2.5 rounds (-260)
Hamdy Abdelwahab (-172) vs. Mohammed Usman (+142)
Abdelwahab was the recipient of some shameful judging in Riyadh in February. That decision, which robbed Jamal Pogues of a win, was one of the worst decisions I’ve seen in recent years (some of the others have also happened in this part of the world, favoring local-ish fighters).
That ‘win’ gave Abdelwahab a 4-0 pro record. His record is marred by a 2022 no contest against Don’Tale Mayes due to a failed drug test that resulted in a lengthy ban (this was back when USADA was a thing).
On the flip side, Usman is on a two-fight losing streak having dropped decisions to Thomas Petersen and Mick Parkin.
As much as I’d love to see Abdelwahab lose to make-up for that Pogues decision, I think he’ll be too fast and athletic for Usman to handle. Usman couldn’t keep up with Petersen and ended up being a pretty easy target to hit. I think the same will happen in this fight.
Best bet: Hamdy Abdelwahab moneyline (-172)
UFC Baku Long Shots!
Here’s a couple of long shots for Saturday night’s action.
Two-fight parlay: Ignacio Bahamondes and Jamahil Hill to win by KO/TKO/DQ (+1325)
I’m really high on Bahamondes at this event. I think he’s primed to get stake his claim for fights with the elite and storied talents of the Lightweight division. Fiziev is coming off a recent loss to Justin Gaethje and a long time out before that. I’m less confidence in Hill in this parlay, given how durable Rountree looked against Pereira. But, when you take emotion out of this and look at Hill as just a fighter, it’s hard to deny his striking and power are among the best in the division.
Ignacio Bahamondes to win in round 1 (+900)
As I said above, I think Bahamondes will have a big coming party in Baku. Fiziev is very tough and has never been finished in the first round, but that’s why I’m getting such good odds here. Bahamondes hits very hard (and has great kicks) and he’ll enjoy a significant reach advantage on Fiziev. Maybe he catches him cold/quick?
Tofiq Musayev vs. Mytykbek Orolbai – First Minute Finish (+1200)
Talk about quick! I think the hometown crowd might work against some fighters on this card, but I don’t think that will be the case for Tofiq Musayev. Musayev has fought in front of this crowd before and he knows what to expect. He’s also the only Azeri fighter on the card who actually lives and trains out of Azerbaijan. I think the crowd will boost Musayev in this fight and he will run through Orolbai — who is very tough, but also just came off a hell of a beating.
LIVE! Stream UFC Baku On ESPN+
LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT CROSSROADS! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) crashes Baku Crystal Hall in Baku, Azerbaijan, on Sat., June 21, 2025, with UFC Baku. Former 205-pound champion, Jamahal Hill, collides with veteran “War Horse,” Khalil Rountree Jr., in a blistering main event mashup scheduled for five, five-minute rounds. In UFC Baku’s co-main event, No. 11-ranked lightweight contender, Rafael Fiziev, locks horns with 155-pound striking sensation, Ignacio Bahamondes, with a spot in the lightweight Top 10 up for grabs.
MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Baku fight card RIGHT HERE, starting with the ESPN+ “Prelims” undercard bouts at 12 p.m. ET, followed by the remaining main card balance on ESPN/ESPN+ at 3 p.m. ET.
To checkout the latest and greatest UFC Baku news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive here.
