UFC Baku is just hours away …
It all goes down this afternoon (Sat., June 21, 2025) inside Baku Crystal Hall in Baku, Azerbaijan. In the main event, former Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) Light Heavyweight champion, Jamahal Hill, takes on former 205-pound title challenger, Khalil Rountree Jr.
We have a fight week series at MMAmania.com called “Weekend Lock,” where we share one bet that we feel could slap in Baku when the chaotic dust settles. We also want to hear what our readers think (that’s you!), so please tell us your most confident UFC Baku betting lock in the comments section below (full UFC Baku odds here).
Last week’s recap: We nailed UFC Atlanta’s Weekend Lock as Michael Chiesa and Court McGee fought to a decision. It was awful (but don’t tell that to Chiesa).
Let’s keep on, keeping on below:
UFC Baku’s co-main event is an incredibly fun Lightweight showdown between No. 11-seeded Rafael Fiziev vs. Ignacio Bahamondes.
Bahamondes enters the fight riding a three-fight win streak and as the -148 betting favorite, while Fiziev is mired in the first three-fight skid of his career.
While I don’t disagree with the betting line, as Bahamondes has looked awesome and “Ataman” is on a dreaded losing streak, I’m taking the underdog (Fiziev) as this weekend’s lock at +124.
Here’s why:
I see UFC Baku’s co-main as a mirror image of last week’s UFC Atlanta main event between Kamaru Usman vs. Joaquin Buckley. Usman, a long-reigning champion, was counted out because of his losing streak (and age), yet his losses weren’t bad. Like Usman, Fiziev’s losses don’t tell the full story.
Fiziev’s three losses are to Justin Gaethje (two competitive wars) and Mateusz Gamrot (when he shredded his knee in the second round). Besides those, he’s been nearly flawless in the promotion and is ultra-dangerous with his striking.
There’s no doubt Bahamondes has been on a roll, finishing his last three opponents — Christos Giagos, Manuel Torres and Jalin Turner (watch highlights) — and looking much improved. And it feels like he is using his height and reach to his advantage, but isn’t afraid of getting into a slugfest if need be.
At 28, “Nacho” has youth on his side against the 32-year-old Fiziev, as well as a six-inch height advantage. But, ultimately, the level of competition brings me back to Fiziev. I also can’t shake Bahamondes’ unanimous decision loss to Ludovit Klein, which exposed his struggles against versatile strikers like Fiziev.
This is Fiziev’s fight to lose, given his superior striking precision. Oh, and he is fighting in his home country, so there’s that intangible, too.
For what it’s worth, this X/Twitter user is going the other way, picking Bahamondes to stay hot:
Ignacio Bahamondes vs. Rafael Fiziev
Pick: Bahamondes to Win, -130
Fiziev will have his work cut out for him navigating a reach disadvantage in tandem with over a half-foot difference in height. Bahamondes also appears much more defensively responsible.
UFC Baku Stats Comp: pic.twitter.com/g0H1M5D8h7
— MMA RAX (@MMA_RAX) June 19, 2025
- Rafael Fiziev via TKO/KO/DQ: +300
- Rafael Fiziev via submission: +2000
- Rafael Fiziev via decision: +275
- Draw: +5000
- Ignacio Bahamondes via TKO/KO/DQ: +400
- Ignacio Bahamondes via submission: +800
- Ignacio Bahamondes via decision: +180
Do you agree with our lock of the weekend? Please sound off in the comments and let us know your most confident UFC Baku pick this weekend. Correct “lock” predictions will be shared in our “Best of the Best” article next week, too.
LIVE! Stream UFC Baku On ESPN+
LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHT CROSSROADS! Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) crashes Baku Crystal Hall in Baku, Azerbaijan, on Sat., June 21, 2025, with UFC Baku. Former 205-pound champion, Jamahal Hill, collides with veteran “War Horse,” Khalil Rountree Jr., in a blistering main event mashup scheduled for five, five-minute rounds. In UFC Baku’s co-main event, No. 11-ranked lightweight contender, Rafael Fiziev, locks horns with 155-pound striking sensation, Ignacio Bahamondes, with a spot in the lightweight Top 10 up for grabs.
Don’t miss a single second of face-punching action!
Remember that MMAmania.com will deliver LIVE round-by-round, blow-by-blow coverage of the entire UFC Baku fight card right here, starting with the ESPN2/ESPN+ “Prelims” matches online, which are scheduled to begin at 12 p.m. ET, before the ABC main card start time at 3 p.m. ET (also on ESPN+).
To check out the latest and greatest UFC Baku: “Hill vs. Rountree” news and notes be sure to hit up our comprehensive event archive right here.
