This weekend marks the commencement of Florida’s pathway to the Kentucky Derby, sponsored by Woodford Reserve, featuring the 37th running of the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park. This essential Derby preparatory event awards a total of 42 qualifying points, distributed among the top five finishers as 20-10-6-4-2. The Holy Bull, contested over 1 1/16 miles, has consistently served as a significant early-season gauge, having produced three eventual Kentucky Derby champions throughout its history. Go for Gin clinched this race in 1994 before subsequently triumphing in the 120th Kentucky Derby. Funny Cide placed fifth in the Holy Bull before his eventual victory in the Run for the Roses in 2003. More recently, in 2006, Barbaro secured the Holy Bull title prior to his consecutive wins in the Florida Derby and the Kentucky Derby. A total of nine three-year-olds were originally registered for the Holy Bull Stakes, however, Buetane was withdrawn earlier in the week, and trainer and co-owner Chad Summers informed the media that Game for It also faced a strong possibility of being withdrawn.
Below is an overview of the contenders, listed by their starting gate position, from the inside rail outward:
Making his three-year-old debut, Incredibolt, a colt by Bolt d’Oro from Riley Mott’s stable, already possesses 10 Kentucky Derby qualifying points, secured by a 1 ¾ length triumph in the Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs in late October. His consistent jockey, Jaime Torres, retains the ride. Roger That Dana will be making his fourth career appearance, exclusively at Gulfstream Park, under trainer Luis Ramirez. This Awesome Slew ridgling achieved a runner-up finish in his most recent outing, the Mucho Macho Man Stakes, overcoming long odds of 23.90-1 with Renzo Rojas, who will again be in the saddle. Project Ace drew the third post position for trainer Dale Romans. This War of Will colt has secured a first, second, and third-place finish in maiden auction races at both Churchill Downs and Keeneland, each time with Corey Lanerie aboard, who is scheduled to ride him again on Saturday. Global Aviator is embarking on his second career start, having successfully won his maiden debut in a dirt sprint at Gulfstream Park in late November, employing a rallying move from last to first. Joe Bravo will maintain his partnership with this runner for trainer and owner Rohan Crichton. Cannoneer, a yearling purchased for $1.75 million, drew post five for trainer Brad Cox. This Into Mischief colt is listed as the 2-1 second favorite on the morning line, and impressively dominated his second career start at Churchill Downs by 7 ¼ lengths, claiming his first victory and achieving a 99 Equibase Speed Figure, which stands as the highest among all horses entered. Nearly, the 9-5 morning-line favorite, has triumphed in his last two races by a cumulative 14 ¼ lengths on Gulfstream Park’s dirt main track for the acclaimed partnership of trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey John Velazquez. Bravaro boasts an unblemished record from two starts and is coming off a victory in the Sleepy Hollow Stakes, held at Belmont at the Big A in late October. Tyler Gaffalione will be taking the reins for trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. for the very first time.
Assessment and Key Runners:
At morning-line odds of 8-1, Bravaro presents compelling value as an unbeaten colt who already boasts a stakes victory on his record. This progeny of Upstart underwent strong training during the summer at Saratoga before securing a win in his career debut, a dirt sprint at Belmont at the Big A in late September, where he registered an 84 Equibase Speed Figure. A month later, Bravaro extended his distance to a one-turn mile in the Sleepy Hollow Stakes, also at Belmont at the Big A, pulling clear in the final three-sixteenths of a mile to win by 2 ½ lengths and improving his Equibase figure to a 90. The Sleepy Hollow victory was particularly significant because both the third and fifth-place finishers subsequently returned to dominate their next races. Following that performance, Bravaro was transferred to Palm Meadows and has maintained good form since, preparing for his return in the Holy Bull after a 98-day absence from racing. Horses coming back from layoffs of 90 days or more have shown considerable success in graded stakes races over the past six months, achieving a 21% win rate with a 40% return on investment. This successful cohort includes Skippylongstocking, who triumphed in last Saturday’s Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes at Gulfstream Park with these very same connections. Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. and jockey Tyler Gaffalione have proven to be a particularly potent combination in dirt routes at Gulfstream Park, achieving a 31% win rate over the last three years while placing in the top three 69% of the time. While Saturday will mark Bravaro’s inaugural two-turn challenge, he has already displayed adaptability, continuous improvement, and a powerful closing kick, positioning him as an attractive contender at an excellent value.
Nearly has demonstrated significant efficacy on the Gulfstream Park main track, exhibiting a consistent pattern of advancement with each race. The son of Not This Time placed a distant sixth in his career debut at Belmont at the Big A on October 26, before relocating south and impressively winning his second start by a commanding 9 ¼ lengths at Gulfstream Park approximately one month later, elevating his Equibase Speed Figure from 58 to 86. He made further strides in his subsequent outing, extending by one furlong to seven furlongs in an open allowance optional claiming event at Gulfstream on January 2. Nearly surged clear to secure a five-length victory over the odds-on favorite, Confessional, achieving a personal best 92 Equibase Figure and maintaining a clear trajectory of improvement. The Todd Pletcher-trained horse currently holds the highest late pace rating at 112.5, a crucial indicator given that horses with the leading late pace rating in graded stakes on dirt over the last year have achieved a 27% win rate and a 59% top-three finish rate across 293 starts. John Velazquez, who piloted Nearly to his last two triumphs, remains in the saddle, further enhancing the colt’s credentials given their established rapport. Nearly has continued to train vigorously since his allowance optional claiming win, including a swift four-furlong bullet work on January 24. While Saturday’s Holy Bull will mark this colt’s initial attempt at a two-turn route and a step up in competition, he has displayed both inherent talent and ongoing development, and his lineage suggests the extended distance should be well within his capabilities.
Incredibolt stands as a formidable candidate for victory, priced at reasonable 9-2 morning-line odds, as he approaches the Holy Bull exhibiting a distinct trend of improvement. The dark bay or brown colt placed a disappointing fourth, eight lengths behind, in his August debut dirt sprint at Ellis Park. However, he made substantial progress when stretching out to a one-turn mile maiden special weight race at Churchill Downs in September. In that particular event, he surged clear in the stretch to claim a two-length victory, elevating his Equibase figure from 73 to 86. Incredibolt continued his upward trajectory approximately one month later when navigating two turns for the first time in the 1 1/16-mile Street Sense Stakes. He mounted a powerful rally to win by 1 ¾ lengths over Universe, a rival who subsequently finished second in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes, trailing the highly-regarded Further Ado. Incredibolt achieved a career-high 94 Equibase Speed Figure in the Street Sense, further solidifying his consistent development. The Street Sense Stakes has consistently proven to be an effective steppingstone on the Derby trail, exemplified by last year’s victor, Sovereignty, who after a layoff, shipped to Gulfstream and triumphed in the Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes in his next outing, followed by wins in the Kentucky Derby and other major races during his Horse of the Year campaign. Incredibolt has recorded a series of impressive workouts at Palm Meadows since the Street Sense and is notable as one of only two entrants in this field with a prior two-turn win. While trainer Riley Mott’s barn has not yet hit peak form at Gulfstream this season, Incredibolt’s current condition and progression indicate he is capable of delivering a strong showing on Saturday, further solidifying his position on the path to the 152nd Kentucky Derby.
The remaining participants in the race, along with their top Equibase Speed Figures from comparable events, include Roger That Dana, Project Ace (83), Global Aviator (80), Cannoneer (99), and Game for It (71).
Candidates for Victory, Ranked by Preference:
Bravaro
Nearly
Incredibolt
