After a year since his triumph from 17th on the grid, Max Verstappen presented yet another remarkable Sao Paulo performance, surging from the pitlane to achieve a podium position in Formula 1. The question remains, could the reigning champion have secured the victory?
In the previous year, Verstappen benefited from favorable weather conditions, capitalizing on his expertise in wet conditions to explore alternative racing lines on the Interlagos circuit, enabling him to efficiently maneuver through the pack.
Gaining 16 positions in wet circumstances was truly exceptional, but this time Verstappen managed to replicate this achievement in dry conditions. Following Red Bull’s decision to modify his car’s setup beyond the permitted parameters and introduce a new engine, Verstappen commenced the Brazil GP from the pitlane.
However, even Verstappen’s latest impressive showing in Sao Paulo was not without complications. Verstappen encountered an early tire puncture resulting from track debris, which necessitated a pit stop during a virtual safety car period on lap 6, pushing him towards a three-stop strategy.
According to McLaren’s Lando Norris and Andrea Stella, the speed demonstrated by Verstappen to conclude the race just 10 seconds behind Norris suggested that, if he had started from a more advantageous grid position, the four-time world champion would have likely outperformed them.
“They exhibited a performance and a rhythm during the race which indicated that, absent the difficulties in qualifying, I believe Verstappen would have been a strong contender for the win,” Stella commented, with Norris echoing similar sentiments, partially explaining why the British driver was not overly enthusiastic about his margin over the Red Bull competitor as they approached the final series of races.
Andrea Kimi Antonelli fended off Max Verstappen for his best-ever grand prix result in second.
Photo by: Sam Bagnall / Sutton Images via Getty Images
Verstappen’s unexpected 16th-place qualification might seem perplexing, but it likely stemmed from Red Bull’s incorrect ride height selections during qualifying. Consequently, they chose a pitlane start to adjust their setup in the opposite direction.
Furthermore, incorporating a new engine offered a slight enhancement in straight-line speed, aiding in overtaking maneuvers into Turn 1 at Interlagos, a key passing area. In contrast, other competitors with less of a speed advantage appeared to be constrained within DRS trains.
The RB21’s speed was so potent that Verstappen twice emerged ahead of Norris after the latter’s pit stops, holding a 10-second lead over Norris with 17 laps remaining.
This raises the question of whether Verstappen should have opted for a third pit stop to equip soft tyres, or if he should have attempted to maintain his position and retain the lead. Could he have potentially secured victory with just two pit stops?
The actual effect of Verstappen’s puncture
Paradoxically, an argument could be made that Verstappen’s early puncture may have inadvertently benefited him, or at least not significantly hampered his race as one might anticipate. Verstappen was among the few drivers to begin on hard tyres – or even use the C2 compound at all – and the other drivers who used this tyre compound did not achieve notable progress and sought to transition away from it at the earliest opportunity.
Alonso’s underwhelming performance on the hard tyre also discouraged McLaren from attempting a one-stop strategy with Oscar Piastri to mitigate his 10-second penalty. Instead, the Australian opted for soft tyres with 32 laps remaining, compelling him to make a subsequent stop for medium tyres later.
Max Verstappen blitzed the midfield with his heavily changed set-up
Photo by: Mark Thompson / Getty Images
While we can only speculate about Verstappen’s optimal pace on the hard tyre, the VSC event presented him with a relatively inexpensive opportunity to transition from the unpopular hard tyres to the more favorable medium tyres. After dropping back to 18th place, Verstappen truly showcased his abilities with two remarkable stints on the medium compound.
However, according to Red Bull team principal Laurent Mekies, the notion that his puncture was a blessing in disguise is flawed, because his lap six pit stop effectively mandated a three-stop strategy.
“In fairness, the VSC event somewhat mitigated our disadvantage, thereby limiting the setback, but we undoubtedly lost ground,” the Frenchman asserted. “Extending the initial sequence – hard, medium – by a few laps might have eliminated the need for that final pit stop.”
As Liam Lawson demonstrated with his 52-lap stint on medium tyres, completing the race with a two-stop strategy was certainly feasible. However, the high degree of tyre degradation would have meant that Verstappen would have been desperately trying to hold off Norris and the Mercedes cars, with Norris rapidly closing the gap at that juncture.
Instead, by adopting an aggressive approach with soft tyres, he had the chance to go on the attack and potentially benefit from a late safety car deployment. Verstappen also noted that the necessity of overtaking numerous cars caused greater tyre wear compared to someone like Lawson, who was meticulously managing his tyres until the end.
When asked about the possibilities if he hadn’t experienced the puncture, Verstappen responded: “It’s impossible to say. I’m unsure whether the hard tyre would have been a truly effective choice. I felt comfortable on the medium and soft tyres.”
Mekies doesn’t think Interlagos was “winnable” for Verstappen
Photo by: Hector Vivas / Getty Images
“Perhaps the medium tyre provided a slight advantage in grip, based on what I observed around me. However, being consistently in dirty air causes constant sliding, making it impossible to ascertain definitively. Undoubtedly, it wasn’t ideal. Pitting again, rejoining the pack on medium tyres, and then having to fight through the field again slightly compromised the initial stint on the medium tyres.”
“Having to overtake numerous cars leads to consistent tyre overheating, rendering the final eight to ten laps of that stint somewhat challenging. Nonetheless, it was a very strong race for us.”
For these reasons, Stella believed Red Bull’s three-stop strategy “was the correct choice,” and Mekies also did not think a win was achievable if Red Bull had made different strategic decisions. “No, we don’t believe it was winnable,” Mekies explained. “We will likely never know our potential finishing position, but the pit wall team thoroughly discussed the options.”
“At some point, a decision is necessary, and that decision was made. I think it provided us with an opportunity to strongly contend for a podium finish, which we ultimately achieved. Perhaps with one more lap, we might have secured P2, but I don’t think there was any realistic way to maintain P1, considering the tyre degradation and our position.”
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– The Autosport.com Team
