Following the race in Hungary, Max Verstappen speculated that his run of victories in Formula 1 might be over for the current season. However, he has secured wins in two of the three subsequent grands prix, leading to renewed discussions about a potential battle for the championship.
With convincing triumphs in Monza and Baku, a central question has emerged: Does Verstappen possess the capacity to genuinely contend with McLaren for the 2025 drivers’ title?
The PACETEQ graph displayed further down indicates Verstappen achieved the fastest race pace in two recent events. Prior to this, he had only accomplished this feat at Suzuka, Imola, and Jeddah, although he didn’t win in Saudi Arabia due to a penalty.
Team insiders suggest the recent upturn in performance is due to a combination of factors. Firstly, Red Bull has adjusted its strategy, placing more emphasis on driver input and reducing its reliance on data. Secondly, Verstappen mentions that enhanced comprehension of the RB21 allows for more effective optimization of the car’s setup, however sensitive it may be.
A third influential factor is the introduction of a new floor. According to Helmut Marko, the upgrade introduced at Monza not only improved performance but also the car’s balance, while also providing a slightly larger operational window.
After the Monza victory, the main point of discussion centered on the degree to which that performance was specific to the track, a point Laurent Mekies readdressed after the Azerbaijan Grand Prix.
Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing
Photo by: Federico Manoni / NurPhoto via Getty Images
“Our feeling is that we managed to replicate some of the positives we experienced in Monza during the Baku race,” Mekies stated. “Baku presents solely low-speed corners with reduced downforce demands, a combination that suited us. This is a different set of circumstances compared to Monza, which is encouraging for us.”
The subsequent graph illustrates the average race pace per lap in Baku, confirming Verstappen’s significant advantage. The difference between Verstappen and George Russell exceeded three-tenths of a second per lap. However, it’s important to note that some figures might not be fully representative. Data collected on Friday indicated that McLaren and Ferrari should have exhibited higher speeds than suggested in the graph. Both teams faced disappointing qualifying rounds, which resulted in the majority of the race being spent navigating disturbed airflow, preventing them from achieving their optimal pace.
“Assessing the gap to George Russell is reasonably straightforward,” Mekies confirmed. “I believe the difference was approximately a couple of tenths [per lap], but no more.”
“McLaren is more challenging to assess due to their difficulty in finding clean air. We observed them achieving extremely high speeds during various points on Friday and Saturday. Determining their actual race pace is difficult, but it’s clear there is no room for complacency on our part.”
Heat and high downforce on a street circuit – the Singapore challenge
The caution from Mekies is valid, given the approaching challenge of the Singapore GP. This event, based on predictions, will combine characteristics unfavorable to Red Bull, like a bumpy street track and the need for high-downforce setups.
Marko joked, adding, “Besides requiring high downforce, Singapore is also extremely hot, which our car seems to dislike. This will be a true indication of where we stand.”
High temperatures are indeed a significant factor. Red Bull’s rear tires tend to overheat relatively quickly, while McLaren excels in managing this issue. This wasn’t a factor in Monza and Baku because of lower degradation, but it will resurface in Singapore.
“When you move to Singapore, the variables change,” Mekies acknowledged. “While the slow-speed corners remain, the demand for maximum downforce increases. We encountered significant difficulties in Budapest, and even prior to that. The track is also much hotter, an aspect to which we, and many other teams, are particularly sensitive.”
No repeat of Budapest?
Given Mekies’ reference to Budapest, it is useful to examine the data shown below, specifically the blue Red Bull line. The chart indicates that in Hungary, Red Bull’s race pace was over a second slower (1.09s) than McLaren’s on a relatively short track. This was a considerable deficit and the most significant difference in race pace after Austria and Great Britain. However, the Austria results are not fully representative as they are based on Yuki Tsunoda’s performance after Verstappen was forced to retire early because of Andrea Kimi Antonelli.
Budapest represented one of the lowest points in Red Bull’s season, and the Hungaroring was the most recent high-downforce track prior to Singapore. This highlights the scale of the challenge Red Bull faces in the upcoming week, and why it would be premature to anticipate a championship fight after securing two wins on circuits with lower downforce requirements. Singapore will be a critical test, especially when considering the figures from Budapest.
Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing RB20
Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images
This uncertainty makes the upcoming Grand Prix a source of significant anticipation. However, Mekies conveyed assurance that the unfortunate events in Budapest will not be repeated.
“It would be reasonable to suggest that we have enhanced the car’s performance since Budapest, irrespective of the difficulties we experienced there,” the Frenchman stated. “I do not anticipate a repeat of Budapest in Singapore, and I am more optimistic as a result. Whether this improvement will be sufficient to contend for the win is difficult to say. However, it will not resemble the situation in Budapest.”
Marko had earlier noted that Red Bull understood the reasons behind their difficulties in Hungary, but that changes could not be made due to parc ferme regulations.
“We are ready to accept the challenges posed by Singapore, a track that has tested the team over the years,” Mekies said, pointing out that Verstappen has yet to secure a victory there. “Within the framework of our objectives, it is essential to identify any elements that are no longer effective and those that remain effective.”
The Singapore GP will provide valuable insights into Verstappen’s prospects in this year’s championship and serve as a critical assessment for Red Bull. The weekend will likely yield key findings.
During the previous year’s race, Lando Norris dominated under the lights, while Verstappen finished in second place, 20 seconds behind the leader.
