A recurrent question recently involves the likelihood of Max Verstappen departing Red Bull prior to the conclusion of his contract in 2028—a topic unlikely to diminish following Christian Horner’s removal as the Formula 1 team’s leader.
Mercedes has openly expressed interest in Verstappen, while speculations also suggest a potential reunion between the four-time F1 world champion, Adrian Newey, and Honda at Aston Martin.
Horner’s departure from his roles as Red Bull F1 team CEO and team principal introduces a new element into Verstappen’s deliberations about his future path.
Here, our writers present their perspectives on the course Verstappen should consider for 2026.
Verstappen could leverage 2026 to evaluate the competitive landscape – Mark Mann-Bryans
Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing, George Russell, Mercedes
Photo by: Sam Bagnall / Motorsport Images via Getty Images
The impending regulatory changes set for 2026 will introduce a period of uncertainty regarding the performance capabilities of all 11 teams until the initial test sessions commence.
Formula 1’s history is replete with instances of championship-winning drivers making ill-fated decisions regarding their next team, leading them to be confined to uncompetitive machinery and contracts that impede their ability to compete at the forefront of the sport.
Verstappen’s contract with Red Bull includes clauses that could benefit him if he wishes to depart, suggesting he should remain patient and assess his options.
There seems little purpose in joining Mercedes if they encounter similar challenges and are forced to recover. Alternatively, relying solely on Adrian Newey to immediately deliver a triumphant car to Aston Martin could be risky.
If these scenarios, along with others, occur while Red Bull struggles, teams would likely make room for Verstappen, given his exceptional talent.
Mercedes presents a more secure avenue for Verstappen, pending implications of Horner’s exit – Ronald Vording
Watch: What Horner’s sacking really means for Verstappen, F1 and Red Bull?
Max Verstappen must first decide if he’s prepared to potentially sacrifice the 2026 season. If so, the driver market opens up for 2027, with options at Mercedes, Aston Martin, and possibly Ferrari. By then, Verstappen will clearly understand the competitive hierarchy under the new rules.
However, if he prefers not to wait, his decision for 2026 can be viewed in two ways. From a performance angle, Mercedes appears safer than Red Bull. Horner mentioned that there’s “no guarantee” Verstappen could win with a Mercedes engine, but added it would be “embarrassing” if Red Bull outperformed them. Given Mercedes’ track record, it’s unlikely any newcomer would immediately surpass them.
If Verstappen aims for the most competitive choice, switching teams before 2026 seems sensible. Yet, the situation might be more nuanced. With Horner gone but Marko still involved, Red Bull has seemingly created an environment that appeals to the Verstappens. If so, leaving might be odd from a personal and political perspective. Verstappen has always shown loyalty to Red Bull, but these factors might clash with sporting considerations in 2026.
Verstappen will benefit from the knowledge and opportunities available in 2027 – Stuart Codling
Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing, George Russell, Mercedes, Andrea Kimi Antonelli, Mercedes
Photo by: Andy Hone / Motorsport Images
A day will eventually arrive when Max Verstappen’s capabilities are questioned, but that moment is distant.
Currently, Verstappen has time on his side. From a purely practical perspective, disregarding loyalty to Helmut Marko and related figures within Red Bull, leaving at the season’s end might cause more harm than good.
Doing so would be venturing into uncertainty, risking the kind of mistimed decision that has limited Fernando Alonso to only two world championships. Despite suggestions that Mercedes has the most advanced engine for the 2026 technical package, it’s uncertain if they can develop a competitive car around it. Recent ground-effect era failures have marred the memory of their seven consecutive championships.
It would be wiser to take stock next season. If Red Bull’s trajectory remains unchanged, he’ll likely be in the same situation in 12 months, with more opportunities for 2027. After all, his speed and dedication will never be questioned.
Verstappen will need to show patient in the upcoming year – Filip Cleeren
Max Verstappen, Red Bull Racing
Photo by: Red Bull Content Pool
The only valid reason for Max Verstappen to consider changing teams revolves around performance. If Red Bull can supply him with a winning vehicle, or convince him that a competitive machine is attainable even from a disadvantaged starting point in 2026, there’s no evident rationale for Verstappen to leave the well-known, pleasant setting in which he thrives.
Red Bull’s prominent staff departures are significantly concerning, and its new Powertrains division remains an uncertainty. Therefore, incoming team principal and CEO Laurent Mekies faces the challenging task of reassuring the Verstappens that Milton Keynes remains the optimal location, especially given the car’s declining performance and handling that has increasingly frustrated Verstappen.
In the interim, embracing the excitement around Mercedes’ new power units is enticing, and undoubtedly, Verstappen and his team will actively dissect what little reliable data exists regarding the 2026 engines and their potential.
But realistically, no one knows what 2026 holds, so it is wise to wait to know who is ahead of the competition and who is behind and consider whether there is a road for Red Bull to get on top, If it is indeed lagging.
The performance-related clauses which can be activated this summer are understood to be available next year, so extricating himself from a non-competitive Red Bull won’t present major issues. However, joining Mercedes for 2026, only to find them underperforming, raises questions. Mercedes would probably want to secure F1’s top driver with a more secure, long-term agreement, rendering it hard for Verstappen to leave as easily as he can at present.
Amid the talk about Mercedes, it’s also possible that Aston Martin, could be in the top the next year, which could create a reunion with Adrian Newey and Honda. The best strategy is to remain for 2026, assess the situation, and then decide based on concrete results and performance statistics rather than speculation. Patience will be key.
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