Vlad Jr. & Blue Jays: A Winning Bet

HALF A YEAR PREVIOUSLY, following only seven games into the 2025 campaign, the Toronto Blue Jays landed in Queens with a shadow of doubt surrounding Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s forthcoming situation. New York Mets supporters, optimistic that their team might secure the soon-to-be free agent and pair him with Juan Soto, greeted the initial baseman with especially enthusiastic shouts at Citi Field as the weekend series commenced. Guerrero and the Blue Jays had been unable to reach a consensus on a contract prolongation prior to an arbitrary mid-February cutoff, and the speculation continued to intensify.

But then, abruptly, it ceased, mere hours after the Mets finalized a weekend sweep. The agreement was noteworthy: 14 years, $500 million without postponements, ranking as the third-largest contract in Major League Baseball history. Guerrero, the Canadian-born athlete who emerged from the Dominican Republic at the age of 16 with a well-known surname, would remain a Blue Jay indefinitely. Guerrero wagered on his own abilities by rejecting less lucrative offers and signaled his confidence in the Blue Jays by consenting to forgo free agency. And the Blue Jays, having missed out on securing other high-profile players in recent times, made a substantial investment in the homegrown talent. The result was immediate.

“We didn’t commence performing at our peak until May,” declared Blue Jays pitcher Max Scherzer. “However, if that matter had remained unresolved, it would have cast a pall over our entire season. The resolution of the issue brought a sense of composure. The external distractions dissipated. It was no longer a question of ‘What is destined to occur?’ It essentially eliminated the overwhelming presence.”

Guerrero, now 26, excelled during his fifth All-Star season, achieving a .292 batting average with 23 home runs and an .848 OPS over 156 games. His contributions, in conjunction with revitalized seasons from George Springer and Bo Bichette, and an array of contributors, propelled the Blue Jays’ advancement from a last-place finish with 74 victories in 2024 to a triumphant 94 wins, securing the American League East title, and presently contending in the American League Championship Series.

The Blue Jays can highlight multiple potential pivotal moments in their journey to securing their fourth playoff berth in six years. One example would be their three-game sweep in Seattle in early May. Another was Bichette’s pivotal pinch-hit home run during the ninth inning in Texas later that month. However, Guerrero’s agreement executed within a week of the season’s commencement played a part in setting the stage for the Blue Jays’ current situation: needing three more victories to make their first World Series appearance in 32 years.

Prior to Game 3 in Seattle on Wednesday night, the Blue Jays were facing a 2-0 deficit following the Mariners’ dominance in Toronto. However, Guerrero was essential in reversing the momentum at T-Mobile Park, registering four hits — including a home run and two doubles — in a commanding 13-4 triumph.

“My ultimate aspiration is invariably to secure a World Series championship and bring it here,” Guerrero mentioned earlier in the postseason. “My father never had the opportunity to win a World Series. Achieving that for myself and for him has always been a central objective.”


THE PATH TOWARD this impressive postseason performance for both Guerrero and the Blue Jays commenced more than a decade earlier. In January 2015, months ahead of Guerrero’s eligibility to sign as an international free agent, Edwin Encarnación received a call from Alex Anthopoulos, then Toronto’s general manager: The Blue Jays were keen to witness a 15-year-old Guerrero, identified as their primary target for that year, participate in another workout session in the Dominican Republic — and they needed a suitable venue.

Encarnación, coming off an All-Star season for Toronto in 2014, used his connections to organize a workout for Guerrero to compete against older free agents from Cuba. With Encarnación and Blue Jays representatives, among them Anthopoulos and international scouting director Ismael Cruz, in attendance, Guerrero made a strong impression on the decision-makers.

“It was a remarkable spectacle,” Encarnación stated in Spanish on the field at Rogers Centre on Monday prior to Game 2 of the ALCS. “Vladdy outperformed the Cubans. At 15 years old, this young player showcased his capabilities against them. He was outstanding.”

That July, the Blue Jays allocated their entire international bonus pool to sign Guerrero for $3.9 million. Anthopoulos, mindful of the attention surrounding the son of an imminent Hall of Famer, instructed the team’s media department to organize a discreet event when Guerrero, who was born in Montreal when his father played for the Expos, was brought to Toronto for the first time. No formal press conference at the podium. Simply batting practice on the field.

“My concern stemmed from the last name; the expectations associated with it were likely to be extraordinary,” conveyed Anthopoulos, presently serving as general manager of the Atlanta Braves. “And they were, irrespective of our efforts to minimize the publicity.”

Guerrero wasn’t immune to the pressure when he debuted in the major leagues in 2019 as the foremost prospect in baseball at the age of 20. His performance in the years that followed was not consistent. Following an AL MVP runner-up season in which he smashed 48 home runs with a 1.002 OPS in 2021, marking his initial year as a full-time first baseman, Guerrero recorded 58 home runs with an .804 OPS throughout the subsequent two years. Another successful season followed: a .323/.396/.544 slash line accompanied by 30 home runs across 159 games to elevate his value as he entered his platform year.

“He’s rarely sidetracked,” Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins stated. “He remains very human, and from my point of view, the toughest obstacle Vladdy has confronted is the weight of expectation, not the external distractions or the attention he receives. He has embraced those expectations.”

This year, the emphasis was on Guerrero to fulfill those expectations in the postseason. He had accumulated a 3-for-22 record with two walks, five strikeouts, and no home runs in six career playoff games — all of which resulted in losses — across three separate wild-card series leading up to the AL Division Series against the New York Yankees.

Guerrero swiftly rewrote that history in Game 1, crushing a solo home run during his inaugural plate appearance of the postseason. In Game 2, he launched a grand slam that will be frequently featured on Rogers Centre highlight reels. He concluded the series with a 9-for-17 record, complemented by three home runs and nine RBIs, as the Blue Jays eliminated New York in four games.

“I think he’s advanced noticeably in all facets,” mentioned Blue Jays catcher Alejandro Kirk. “The gained experience and the maturity he has shown as a person. He’s no longer the 20-year-old Vladimir who made his debut. He’s evolved into Vladimir.”


VLADIMIR VASQUEZ WATCHED the Blue Jays’ decisive victory over the Yankees last Wednesday from within his restaurant, which is positioned five miles north of Rogers Centre. Vasquez, born in the Dominican Republic, relocated to Toronto at the age of 11 in 1990 and quickly became an ardent admirer of the Blue Jays’ championship teams of the early ’90s. He established Cabacoa, a Dominican restaurant, approximately a year and a half ago — a testament to the city’s thriving Dominican community.

“I’ve closely followed Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s career since his minor league days,” Vasquez stated. “It’s curious because his father was the primary older Dominican Vladimir I knew while growing up. But it’s significant for the community, particularly the Dominican community, to have someone of his caliber present for an extended period.”

This responsibility extends beyond playing first base and batting third for Guerrero. He stands as the sole Canadian citizen on Canada’s singular MLB team. Blue Jays fans spanning from British Columbia to Newfoundland don his No. 27 jersey. He represents the player to whom the Blue Jays have devoted their resources, envisioning him as their cornerstone until he reaches his age-40 season in 2039 — two decades following his debut — hoping that he will ultimately have a Hall of Fame career.

“I assess Vladdy with a long-term perspective due to my experience of playing alongside some of the greats,” conveyed Scherzer, an 18-year veteran and three-time Cy Young Award recipient. “I’ve had the opportunity to play alongside numerous exceptional and diverse players during my career. In my opinion, he embodies elements of both Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera. He represents a blend of those two players.”

In the short term, the agreement served as a release. Perhaps, as Atkins suggested, the Blue Jays would have stabilized their position even without Guerrero committing to the extension. The necessary components were present, two years removed from an 89-win season. However, that uncertainty, which lingered from the day Guerrero reported for spring training, was eliminated.

Six months later, the Blue Jays, propelled by their franchise cornerstone, are achieving significant milestones.

“I believe it demonstrated to our fan base and the league our objectives for both the immediate and distant future,” stated Blue Jays manager John Schneider. “It partially alleviated the concerns surrounding a highly talented player, allowing the team to acknowledge, ‘This is our core player, and this is our planned course of action.’ I believe it provided a sense of liberation for everyone involved.”

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