MIAMI — The roster of contenders for the World Baseball Classic trophy has been reduced to four squads, setting the stage for two compelling semifinal showdowns on Sunday and Monday at Miami’s loanDepot Park.
On one side of the bracket, two formidable baseball nations, the Dominican Republic and the United States, are set to clash. These highly talented teams followed distinct paths to reach this penultimate stage. The Dominicans largely dominated their five opponents, while the Americans displayed their formidable strength only intermittently, despite their star-studded lineup on paper.
The other semifinal presents a more unexpected pairing of Italy and Venezuela. Italy, the tournament’s unexpected success story, holds a 5-0 record after topping Pool B and securing another robust offensive win against Puerto Rico in the quarterfinals. Venezuela, meanwhile, advanced to this point by knocking out the reigning WBC champions, Samurai Japan, in what has been the most thrilling game of the competition so far.
Let’s delve deeper into the four teams competing for the WBC championship and the crucial elements that could determine who will participate in Tuesday’s final game.
United States Against Dominican Republic
Anticipated Pitching Starters
Paul Skenes (USA) vs. Luis Severino (D.R.)
Dominican roster hitters collectively have a 3-for-27 record against Skenes in regular season competition, with Julio Rodríguez — who has been among the less impactful regulars for the D.R. in this event — accounting for all three hits. Padres teammates Manny Machado and Fernando Tatis Jr. have never faced the Pittsburgh pitcher. If these limited past performances aren’t compelling, a more pertinent statistic to track is Skenes’ pitch count. WBC regulations permit a maximum of 65 pitches in pool play and 80 in quarterfinals; for the semifinals and championship, this limit increases to 95 (allowing pitchers to complete an at-bat even if they reach the threshold mid-plate appearance). On Monday, Skenes delivered 60 pitches over four scoreless innings during USA’s 5-3 triumph over Mexico. An increased workload is certainly anticipated, but it may not be realistic to expect Skenes to reach his absolute maximum as he continues to build up for the Pirates’ Opening Day. Manager Mark DeRosa and Andy Pettitte have both suggested a more achievable target of 75-80 pitches for Skenes.
Regardless of the outcome, every out Skenes records will reduce the number of outs DeRosa needs from his bullpen. It’s important to note that several relief pitchers have reinforced the U.S. roster from the designated pitcher pool: Will Vest, Tyler Rogers, Tim Hill, and Jeff Hoffman have replaced Tarik Skubal, Michael Wacha, Ryan Yarbrough, and Clayton Kershaw. This newfound abundance of traditional high-leverage relievers, rather than swingman types, provides a significant advantage for DeRosa and could allow him to remove Skenes earlier if he encounters any difficulties.
As for Severino, he surrendered one run (a Didi Gregorius solo homer) across four innings (60 pitches, 43 strikes) versus Team Netherlands in pool play before the Dominican offense erupted for a 12-1 mercy-rule victory. The 32-year-old A’s right-hander is accustomed to high-stakes games, boasting 13 career MLB postseason starts. However, this opportunity to set the tone for his nation against Team USA undoubtedly ranks among the most significant outings of his professional life.
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Their Journey to This Stage
USA: It wasn’t pretty — as Pete Crow-Armstrong acknowledged after USA’s quarterfinal win against Canada — but the most formidable roster ever assembled by USA Baseball and the pre-tournament favorites have indeed reached the final four. Despite the large final scores, USA faced considerably more resistance from extreme underdogs Brazil and Great Britain than anyone had foreseen. Their narrow win against Mexico became vital when the U.S. surprisingly fell to Italy, which then did Team USA a tremendous favor by thoroughly defeating Mexico to conclude pool play. Given a second chance and a ticket to the quarterfinals thanks to that Italy-Mexico outcome, USA managed its game against Canada but didn’t entirely dominate. Aaron Judge’s first-inning double was the team’s only extra-base hit, and the Americans capitalized on Canadian errors both offensively and defensively before securing a 5-3 victory with some stellar bullpen work from David Bednar and Mason Miller.
Dominican Republic: Aside from a shaky start against Nicaragua and a tense ninth inning versus Venezuela, Team D.R. has largely overpowered its adversaries, reaching a 5-0 record with a combined score of 51-10. The Dominican hitters have collectively posted a .312/.453/.637 slash line, an extraordinary offensive output with historical parallels to players like 1992 Barry Bonds, 1996 Gary Sheffield, and 2018 Mike Trout. A perfect pitching staff isn’t essential with such an offense, but the Dominican’s run-prevention efforts have also been robust, yielding a 1.98 ERA over 41 innings with a 0.93 WHIP. This team is performing exceptionally well in all aspects and clearly enjoying the process.
Their Path to Victory
USA: By shaking off their subpar performances in Houston and re-energizing in Miami, finally delivering a complete game that highlights the immense talent on this roster. This begins with Skenes, naturally, equipped with the skill and composure to contain the red-hot Dominican lineup. It’s not merely that Skenes is the reigning NL Cy Young winner; it’s also that the D.R. lineup has not encountered a pitcher of his caliber in this tournament and has seen very little elite velocity outside of a few hard-throwing relievers on Team Venezuela. This abrupt increase in the quality of opposing arms — with the outstanding Skenes followed by a rested USA bullpen — presents enough challenges for Dominican hitters to give USA the advantage. The American power hitters would then dismantle Severino and finally live up to their lofty expectations.
Dominican Republic: By sustaining their celebratory momentum. All the energy accumulated from the D.R.’s five wins (and their boisterous pre-tournament exhibitions on home turf) culminates in another display of baseball excellence against their toughest adversary yet. The Dominicans would rise to the challenge presented by Skenes, and their incredibly gifted hitters — Tatis, Juan Soto, Junior Caminero, Ketel Marte, choose any — would find enough solid contact against the high-level USA pitchers. Perhaps Team USA’s offense would continue its inconsistent production, leading to another substantial Dominican run total that the Americans cannot match as the D.R. crushes its way into the championship game.
Their Road to Defeat
USA: By continuing to perform significantly below their potential and struggling against a team that is both wildly gifted and in excellent form. In this scenario, Skenes’ pitch count would rapidly escalate during the initial innings, compelling DeRosa to initiate the bullpen rotation sooner than planned. One of the newly added relievers — thrust directly from spring training into the intense environment of the WBC — would falter when called upon, proving costly if Bednar and/or Miller are unavailable after their quarterfinal contributions. The lineup would continue to underperform, and the Americans would exit the tournament as a remarkable “what-if” rather than a fully realized dominant force.
Dominican Republic: By falling behind early. Severino, an experienced pitcher whom every hitter on the USA roster except Roman Anthony has faced multiple times in the majors, would suffer from this familiarity factor, giving up solid contact in the early frames and placing Team D.R. in an unfamiliar deficit that becomes difficult to overcome. Skenes would effectively neutralize the Dominican offense in a way few others can, and without many baserunners, Team D.R. would be unable to connect for the crucial home runs in key moments as they have repeatedly done throughout the tournament. The bullpen would issue too many free passes, leading to insurance runs for Team USA that even the D.R. offense could not surmount.
Decisive Elements
USA: Bryce Harper. Even with Skenes pitching, if Team USA aims to match the relentless Dominican offense, they will likely require more than just one or two powerful swings. This places a considerable focus on Harper, who has a 3-for-20 record in this tournament, with seven strikeouts and several unproductive plate appearances in high-leverage situations. If Harper remains near the top of the batting order, positioned between Bobby Witt Jr. and Aaron Judge, his at-bats will need to be effective. This is particularly relevant when considering Harper’s past success against Severino; he has hit three home runs off the right-hander, all in 2024 (two in the regular season, one in October).
Dominican Republic: The bullpen. One could choose any combination of superstar hitters from the Dominican lineup, and they would rightfully qualify as game-changers because any of them could dominate a game. However, the relievers were a subtle yet crucial aspect of this team’s pool play success, a unit that maintained a 0.00 ERA until the very last inning of the group stage, when Abner Uribe completely lost control against Venezuela and yielded a couple of runs. It’s also a group that should be quite fresh, as only one reliever — Albert Abreu, serving as the de facto longman — appeared in D.R.’s quarterfinal blowout of Korea. This implies that Albert Pujols should have a deep roster of arms available, but deploying them in an effective sequence is another matter, especially if Severino struggles early.
Forecast
Team D.R. manages just enough against Skenes to seize momentum early and delivers significant blows in the later innings against the USA bullpen. The Dominican Republic progresses to the championship, with an opportunity to complete its second undefeated run through the World Baseball Classic, echoing its 8-0 performance in 2013. Team USA will return home prematurely after an undeniably underwhelming showing in the WBC.
Venezuela Against Italy
Anticipated Pitching Starters
Keider Montero (Venezuela) vs. Michael Lorenzen (Italy)
Lorenzen, the recent addition to the Colorado Rockies who is preparing for his 12th major-league season, delivered 4 2/3 scoreless innings as the starting pitcher in Italy’s surprising victory over Team USA, providing confidence that the 34-year-old is fully capable of performing well against a formidable lineup in a tournament setting. Venezuela presents another demanding challenge for Lorenzen, this time with an increased pitch count and a surge of self-assurance gained during pool play. His performance should not be underestimated, regardless of his 4.64 ERA from last season.
After left-hander Emmanuel De Jesus — who started the second pool play game against Israel and was thus next in the Venezuela rotation — pitched 2 1/3 scoreless innings against Japan in the quarterfinal, it was not immediately clear who would start the semifinal for Venezuela. However, manager Omar Lopez announced Keider Montero as the starter for Monday against Italy, a logical decision after he pitched effectively in tandem with Yoendrys Gomez, providing five scoreless frames against Nicaragua in the third pool play game. Gomez, meanwhile, is expected to be replaced on the roster, so Montero will likely be asked to shoulder more responsibility on his own this time.
Their Journey to This Stage
Italy: Team Italy advanced through the group stage of the tournament undefeated, most notably securing an 8-6 upset against Team USA that significantly impacted pool play. The Italians carried that momentum into the quarterfinals against Puerto Rico, forcing starter Seth Lugo out in the first inning and building an 8-2 lead through four frames before navigating some late-game tension to emerge with an 8-6 victory and a spot in the semifinals.
Venezuela: Venezuela comfortably progressed through its first three pool play games as anticipated before falling short against rival Dominican Republic in the Pool D finale. This resulted in the team finishing as pool runner-up, setting up a quarterfinal match with defending champions Japan. However, instead of being eliminated in the quarters as they were three years ago by Team USA, Venezuela rose to the occasion and triumphed in a classic high-stakes battle on Saturday at loanDepot Park, securing an emotional 8-5 win over Samurai Japan to advance to the semifinals and keep alive their aspirations of lifting their first WBC trophy.
Their Path to Victory
Italy: By maintaining their hitting prowess. Team Italy, featuring a lineup spearheaded by proven slugger Vinnie Pasquantino but largely composed of players still striving to establish themselves in the majors, has hit .287/.401/.581, yielding a .982 OPS that ranks second in the tournament, trailing only Team D.R.’s remarkable 1.080 mark. Italy has seen home runs from four prospects who have yet to reach the majors (Dante Nori, Andrew Fischer, J.J. D’Orazio, Sam Antonacci), and now team captain Pasquantino is finding his rhythm after going hitless in the first three games. The bats must remain hot if Italy is to continue its surprising run and overcome another traditional baseball powerhouse in Venezuela, which will enter the semifinals with immense confidence after eliminating the defending champions.
Venezuela: By building upon their performance against Japan. The offense would continue to excel, with Ronald Acuña Jr. and his cousin, emerging star Maikel Garcia, delivering the necessary sparks at the top of the lineup to propel Venezuela to another high-scoring victory. The trio of catchers (two current and one former) Salvador Perez and the Contreras brothers (William and Willson) would ignite at the plate, shaking off their combined 6-for-41 start to the tournament and driving in several runs to support the potent top of the order. Montero would keep the game close long enough to hand it over to a bullpen that has quietly impressed in this tournament, and Venezuela would speed to its inaugural WBC finals appearance.
Their Road to Defeat
Italy: Lorenzen would revert to his more average form, and the pitching behind him — which has been inconsistent apart from the starts by Lorenzen and Aaron Nola, plus reliable closer Greg Weissert at the end — would falter, allowing Venezuela’s powerful offense to inflict too much damage. Unaccustomed to trailing in this tournament, Italy’s lack of experience among position players would become apparent when the score isn’t in their favor, leading to a less productive offensive showing. No espresso shots would be consumed, and the magic would dissipate on a memorable WBC journey for Team Italy.
Venezuela: Italy would jump on Montero early, putting Venezuela in a deficit from which they cannot quite recover. After playing as the underdog in the previous two matches, Venezuela would feel the pressure of falling behind quickly as the favorite and would start to press at the plate, enabling Italy’s less-established pitchers to navigate the middle innings unharmed. The Venezuela bullpen, heavily utilized throughout the tournament, would show signs of fatigue at inopportune moments, and Italy would add late runs to put the game out of reach and achieve another upset.
Decisive Elements
Italy: Jakob Marsee. Despite batting first, second, or third in all five of Italy’s games so far, Marsee has only two runs scored, two RBI, and one extra-base hit. This is a small sample size, and it seems unfair to hold Marsee to such a high standard, considering he is just 55 games into his major-league career. However, his performance with Miami as a rookie (133 wRC+) suggested he could be one of Italy’s most dangerous hitters in this tournament. So far, that hasn’t materialized. The future remains very bright for the 24-year-old outfielder, but a more impactful contribution for Team Italy in the semifinals (or beyond) would be an excellent way to prepare for his sophomore MLB season.
Venezuela: Manager Omar Lopez. He has relied heavily on a small group of relievers to reach this point, with Jose Butto, Andres Machado, and Angel Zerpa each appearing in four of Venezuela’s five games, and Eduardo Bazardo and Daniel Palencia making three appearances apiece. Which of these crucial relievers are available on Monday — and whether Lopez chooses to rest certain ones, knowing the championship game is the following day — is a significant variable to monitor closely. Lopez is also likely managing usage restrictions imposed by major-league teams, adding another layer to what promises to be a challenging managerial task.
Forecast
Italy will finally experience a baseball defeat. This is something we haven’t witnessed yet in this WBC, but Venezuela possesses the powerful hitters to make it happen and conclude one of the most remarkable runs in World Baseball Classic history. Italy is resilient enough to stay competitive and keep the game close, but the momentum gained from their quarterfinal triumph over Japan should be sufficient to propel Venezuela past Italy and into Tuesday’s championship game.
