In the late summer months, it’s unlikely the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams anticipated boasting a Most Valuable Player contender as the season unfolded.
The Rams spent a significant portion of August concerned about Matthew Stafford’s physical condition. Seattle, having traded Geno Smith to clear the path for Sam Darnold, clearly saw potential in Darnold. However, questions lingered about his capacity to emulate his previous season’s performance with the Minnesota Vikings.
Presently, both Stafford and Darnold are positioned within the top tier of NFL MVP candidates as Week 11 approaches, and their respective teams are emerging as Super Bowl possibilities.
The Seahawks and Rams, both holding records of 7-2, are demonstrating their status as prominent NFL teams. They share similarities, featuring quarterbacks performing exceptionally well, standout receivers (Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Puka Nacua) enjoying remarkable seasons, and defenses recognized among the league’s best. Seattle claimed the No. 1 spot in DVOA this week, with the Rams closely following at No. 2. This sets the stage for an intriguing contest between two highly skilled teams.
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Given the expected tightness of the competition, the line of Rams -3 at BetMGM isn’t particularly surprising. A smaller spread for the Rams would likely draw substantial betting activity, while a spread exceeding a field goal would likely favor the Seahawks in terms of bets. Predicting the game’s outcome is challenging due to the high caliber of both teams, but a pick for Seahawks +3 seems reasonable. They possess the potential to pull off an upset, even playing away, and the three-point advantage is a welcome addition in what promises to be a compelling game. Fortunately, these teams are scheduled to meet once more in Week 16.
Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford is the betting favorite to win NFL MVP entering Week 11. (AP Photo/Scot Tucker)
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The following are predictions for the Week 11 NFL games, with all odds sourced from BetMGM:
Jets (+13) against Patriots
Week 11 features several compelling matchups, but this particular game isn’t one of them. While supporting the Jets might not be appealing, the point spread is significant. The sooner this Thursday night game concludes, the better.
Dolphins (-2.5) against Commanders
Regrettably, this isn’t a standout matchup either. A real treat for the fans in Madrid, Spain! Both teams find themselves in a position where they’re essentially playing out the season by mid-November. In contrast to the Commanders, Miami has at least displayed some signs of vitality in recent games.
Texans (-6.5) against Titans
The Titans have suffered defeats in eight games, each by a margin of seven or more points. Their unexpected victory temporarily halted discussions about whether the 2025 Titans might be the worst team in NFL history. It’s important to recognize the considerable distinction between winless teams and teams with only one loss throughout NFL history. The one-loss teams are rarely remembered. While the Texans might not be exceptional, there’s a reasonable chance they could shut out the Titans, which is noteworthy.
Vikings (-3) against Bears
A team that has emerged victorious in six of its last seven games is entering as a three-point underdog against a team with a 4-5 record. While this might seem suspicious, the Bears are currently perceived as a team that is benefiting from considerable luck to maintain their winning ways. They hold a DVOA ranking of 25th, exhibit a negative yards-per-play differential (according to OddsShark), and possess a negative point differential. At some point, the Bears’ luck is likely to run out.
Bengals (+5.5) against Steelers
The sizable point spread favoring the Steelers is easily understandable. The Bengals’ defense is struggling significantly. Joe Flacco has been playing well lately, but he’s likely to experience a decline, and he’s currently dealing with a shoulder injury. Nevertheless, is it advisable to trust the Steelers to cover a 5.5-point spread? Considering their performance in Sunday night’s game against the Chargers, the answer is likely no.
Panthers (+3.5) against Falcons
The Panthers are not performing well, a fact they made clear in their recent home loss to the Saints. However, supporting the Falcons, who are returning from Berlin after squandering a winnable game against the Colts, is also challenging. Perhaps the Carolina team will be more focused after experiencing a disastrous defeat.
Buccaneers (+5.5) against Bills
The Bills are proving to be perplexing. They should be performing at a higher level than a team that has suffered significant losses to the Falcons and Dolphins. The Buccaneers haven’t been flawless either. The Bills might rebound from their loss to the Dolphins and secure a decisive win against Tampa Bay, but the point spread appears somewhat inflated.
Giants (+7) against Packers
Teams often experience a surge in performance during their first game after a coaching change. It’s also common for teams to rally behind a backup quarterback for a single game. The Giants are positioned to experience both of these effects. With Brian Daboll’s departure, Jameis Winston is set to start. Those familiar with Winston’s play can anticipate both remarkable downfield plays and notable mistakes. Brace yourselves. While the Packers might seek to release their frustration after consecutive losses, Green Bay might not be capable of consistently imposing their will on opponents.
Chargers (-3) against Jaguars
West Coast teams often face challenges when playing early games on the East Coast. However, the Jaguars’ performance has waned since their victory over the Chiefs. They’ve recorded a 1-3 record since then, with their lone win occurring in overtime against the Raiders due to a deflected two-point conversion pass. The Chargers have issues along the offensive line, but their defense has been exceptional recently. Is it wise to rely on Trevor Lawrence to defeat a formidable defense? It’s probably not.
49ers (-2.5) against Cardinals
The point spread in this game appears unusual. Injuries have affected the 49ers’ defense, but they remain a 6-4 team. The Cardinals have lost six of their last seven games, were recently defeated soundly by the Seahawks, and will be without Marvin Harrison Jr. this week due to appendicitis. This is precisely the type of situation where a team that should never be receiving less than a field goal manages to pull off an upset, which is a common occurrence in the NFL. Nevertheless, we’ll take the bait anyway.
Ravens (-7.5) against Browns
Given their strong defense and reputation as an underdog, the Browns should theoretically cover point spreads more often than one might expect. However, they have a 3-6 record against the spread. The Ravens are gaining momentum, and they previously defeated the Browns 41-17 in Week 2.
Broncos (+4) against Chiefs
The Broncos are far from being a bad team. While their offense might be lacking, their defense ranks among the top two or three in the NFL. Andy Reid typically performs well after a bye week, but Sean Payton has also had some extra time to prepare. It’s worth remembering that Denver outplayed Kansas City at Arrowhead Stadium last season, only to have a last-second field goal blocked, as the 2024 Chiefs benefited from numerous fortunate breaks in close games. The Chiefs might win in a significant AFC West clash, but the outcome should be close either way.
Eagles (-2.5) against Lions
This game represents another compelling matchup. It might also be the Lions’ final opportunity to seriously contend for the No. 1 seed in the NFC. Despite their 7-2 record, the Eagles are very good, but it’s undeniable that their offense hasn’t fully reached its potential. While there’s a tendency to overreact to any negative news surrounding the Eagles, they might still be the best team in football, and it’s difficult to bet against them when they’re favored by less than a field goal at home.
Cowboys (-3.5) against Raiders
A week filled with quality matchups is framed by two lackluster prime-time games. To be clear, the Cowboys are not performing well, but they are superior to the Raiders, who have a 1-7 record since Week 1, with their only victory coming against the Titans. We deserve better than this for a Monday night game.
Previous week: 6-8
Season record: 81-68-2
