What We Learned: Duke beats Michigan, Arizona beats Houston

With the Final Four approaching in less than six weeks, college basketball enthusiasts were treated to a glimpse of potential national semifinal confrontations in Indianapolis.

A high-stakes Saturday featured the top four teams in the most recent AP poll, as the No. 3 Duke squad and No. 4 Arizona triumphed over No. 1 Michigan and No. 2 Houston, respectively. This marked the first occurrence since February 8, 2025, that both the top-ranked and second-ranked teams suffered defeats on the same day.

What insights did these outcomes provide regarding each competing team? And how should these four teams be assessed in the aftermath of the day’s events? Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf from ESPN offer their analysis.

What we learned about Duke

Duke stands among the elite teams in college basketball. While their standing and win-loss record already confirmed this, they hadn’t previously been widely recognized among the premier contenders for the national title this season. Michigan, Arizona, UConn (at times), and more recently, Houston, had occupied that discussion. Now, Duke has joined them, firmly positioning the Blue Devils as strong candidates for the top overall seed on Selection Sunday.

Any lingering questions have been erased: Cameron Boozer of Duke is undeniably the leading candidate for National Player of the Year. Although Yaxel Lendeborg, a senior from Michigan, outscored the freshman in the initial half, Boozer shouldered Duke’s offensive responsibilities when it counted most. Boozer completed the game with 18 points, 10 rebounds, and seven assists, and contributed seven consecutive points for Duke in the decisive final minutes, securing the victory for the Blue Devils.

Saturday’s performance, however, extended beyond Boozer’s contributions. Caleb Foster, the Blue Devils’ guard, sank crucial perimeter shots and managed the ball effectively. Patrick Ngongba II made an impact on both offense and defense. Nikolas Khamenia delivered valuable minutes coming off the bench for Duke. Despite not shooting well, Isaiah Evans maintained his offensive confidence without faltering.

Duke’s offensive prowess may not match the explosive nature of other leading contenders. Yet, when their defense performs as it did on Saturday, the Blue Devils don’t require scoring 80 or 90 points. This defensive capability could be their decisive advantage come March. — Borzello

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What we learned about Michigan

Virtually every key element that has established Michigan as the preeminent force in college basketball this season — all the factors that contributed to the Wolverines’ decisive victory at Purdue earlier this week — were conspicuously absent on Saturday.

The most striking concern emerged in the interior game. Michigan’s frontcourt has been unmatched throughout the season, with Coach Dusty May employing large lineups to physically dominate opponents. On Saturday, the Wolverines appeared to struggle against an opposing frontcourt, possibly for the first time this season. They typically averaged 41 points in the paint and boasted a rebound margin of nearly 10 boards per game. However, Duke surpassed them in paint scoring, 34-24, and outrebounded them significantly, 41-28. This marked the first instance all season that Michigan was outrebounded by a double-digit margin.

Michigan might have been able to compensate for their interior struggles if their shooting had matched their performance against Purdue, where they hit 13 of 23 three-point attempts. Instead, the Wolverines managed only 6-for-25 from beyond the arc against Duke, sinking just one 3-pointer from the 9:40 mark of the first half until the 3:50 mark of the second half. Elliot Cadeau, Trey McKenney, Nimari Burnett, and L.J. Cason collectively made only two 3-pointers.

While this defeat won’t fundamentally alter their status as national championship favorites — considering that on a different day, those open 3s might fall, Aday Mara might avoid foul trouble, etc. — what seemed like a straightforward path to a national title has encountered an obstacle. — Borzello

What we learned about Arizona

The Wildcats retain the capability to defeat any team across the nation, a fact they powerfully demonstrated in one of college basketball’s most challenging environments against a top-tier opponent.

Arizona had maintained an almost unblemished record until the previous week, experiencing their initial season losses at Kansas and then to Texas Tech. Despite this two-game skid, the Wildcats have consistently been among the nation’s most formidable contenders for four months. Crucially, they have excelled in the high-stakes moments that shape a season, reaffirming this prowess on Saturday.

Arizona’s defensive effort was exceptional following halftime, severely limiting Houston’s scoring. The Cougars endured a scoring drought of nearly eight minutes in the second half, marking their longest such period of the season. Jaden Bradley sank vital shots late in the game, concluding with 17 points. Anthony Dell’Orso contributed 22 points off the bench, and Ivan Kharchenkov added 16 points. The Wildcats recorded a 25% shooting percentage from beyond the arc on Saturday and were unable to extend their lead beyond 10 points. — Medcalf

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What we learned about Houston

This particular contest mirrored the kind of challenge Kelvin Sampson’s Houston squads typically relished, yet the Cougars once more succumbed to a scoring dry spell from which they couldn’t recover.

Houston failed to register a single point for almost eight minutes during the second half against Arizona. While the Wildcats’ defense was a significant factor in this drought, the Cougars cannot realistically expect to triumph in April if they are unable to secure essential baskets. Furthermore, they were outscored 21-9 in the final 11 minutes of their 70-67 defeat to Iowa State on Monday.

Do they possess the offensive production to go toe-to-toe with the country’s elite teams? The NCAA tournament often hinges on star performers and playmakers, which the Cougars certainly have. However, their repeated inability to overcome two consecutive periods of poor offensive output is concerning. This week’s losses indicate that unless star freshman Kingston Flemings can generate scoring opportunities in critical moments, they might be susceptible to additional scoring droughts at the most crucial phase of the season. — Medcalf

How would you rank these teams now?

Borzello: Duke, Arizona, Michigan, Houston.

1. Duke: Is it even possible to place any other team at the summit? Duke just secured a victory over Michigan on neutral territory, demonstrating that a perpetually explosive offense isn’t a prerequisite to defeat an elite opponent. The Blue Devils have incurred only two losses this entire season: a one-point defeat to Texas Tech in a game they had once led by 17, and a three-point loss to North Carolina where they held a 13-point advantage. Saturday’s performance illustrated their capability to close out a game against a high-caliber adversary.

2. Arizona: Head Coach Tommy Lloyd’s squad boasts an impressive collection of wins, now augmented by their triumph at Houston, joining previous victories at UConn, against Florida in Las Vegas, and over Alabama in Tuscaloosa. This particular win was among the most resilient and determined performances witnessed from any team this season. Accomplishing this without Koa Peat, Dwayne Aristode, and with Brayden Burries playing at less than full health, alongside Motiejus Krivas and Tobe Awaka in foul trouble, highlights a level of tenacity that previous Arizona teams might not have fully exhibited.

3. Michigan: Despite the recent setback, the Wolverines are still arguably considered top contenders for the national championship. Their ability to remain competitive into the final minute of the game, even while being outplayed in the paint and missing a significant number of open three-pointers, underscores their inherent talent. Nevertheless, their previously unchallenged status has been somewhat eroded, prompting questions about their late-game offensive strategies.

4. Houston: The Cougars experienced a week with two defeats. My primary concern following this period is their heavy reliance on their defense to generate turnovers. When they fail to secure easy points or pressure opponents, they become overly dependent on the shot-making ability of their guards. While their guards are indeed elite, this dependency isn’t necessarily a fatal flaw but certainly warrants close observation. Iowa State and Arizona collectively committed only eight turnovers against Houston, yielding a mere three points off those turnovers; prior to this week, the Cougars typically forced nearly 15 turnovers per game and converted them into 19 points.

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Medcalf: Duke, Michigan, Arizona, Houston.

1. Duke: The Blue Devils executed the crucial plays required in the waning moments of a closely contested and remarkable game — a matchup that could foreshadow a March rematch. They demonstrated their current standing as the premier team in America. Furthermore, they are guided by Cameron Boozer, arguably the nation’s top player. It is difficult to justify any position for them other than the leading spot.

2. Michigan: The Wolverines maintained a competitive stance throughout their loss to Duke until their three-point shots ceased falling, preventing them from overcoming the Blue Devils in the vital closing minutes.

3. Arizona: Even while missing Koa Peat and thus shorthanded, the Wildcats proved superior to Houston. Jaden Bradley delivered pivotal plays late in the game, assisting the Wildcats in overcoming another contest with limited production from beyond the three-point line. However, what truly distinguished their performance was a defensive effort that instigated Houston’s scoring drought of more than 10 minutes without a field goal in the second half.

4. Houston: The Cougars squandered two opportunities this week to affirm their position among the national title contenders mentioned here — if Iowa State were included, I would place Houston beneath the Cyclones. Houston held a double-digit lead against Iowa State but disintegrated in the final minutes. They also struggled to find scoring chances for most of the second half in their loss to Arizona, thereby forfeiting their second chance to build a strong argument for a top seeding come Selection Sunday.