The Wisconsin Badgers offensive unit has demonstrated considerable struggles thus far during the current season. Their performance has declined incrementally throughout Luke Fickell’s tenure, moving from a ranking of 65th nationally in offensive yardage per contest in 2023, to 99th in 2024, and culminating in a lowly 131st position in 2025 with an average of 271.3 yards per game.
Furthermore, Wisconsin holds the 133rd spot nationally in scoring offense, averaging just 13.3 points per game, and a mere five points per game in Big Ten conference play, having been shut out in their last two contests.
The offensive output has been virtually nonexistent in the past three games. Here’s a breakdown of the results from Wisconsin’s last 31 offensive possessions:
21 punts
4 Interceptions
3 turnover on downs
1 Fumble
1 End of Game
1 Field goal
This level of performance is unacceptable. However, the Badgers have yet to implement any effective remedies or alternative solutions to address their offensive deficiencies. Therefore, let’s pinpoint the core issue and identify potential areas for improvement.
Reviewing the game film from recent contests, it’s evident that Wisconsin’s primary challenge lies in their execution on first downs. Head Coach Luke Fickell is fully aware of this problem.
In the game against Ohio State, the Badgers shifted away from their established strategies and emphasized running the ball extensively on first downs during the first half. Across 10 first-down plays, they opted for a running play eight times, gaining a mere 14 yards. Subsequently, they attempted two pass plays, completing one for 15 yards while the quarterback was sacked on the other play.
Against Iowa, they adopted a more balanced approach, running the ball seven times for 36 yards on first downs during the first half, while also attempting six pass plays, completing three for 53 yards while throwing an interception.
Wisconsin did achieve some offensive momentum at several points during the game. Their initial drive was halted just short of a first down. An interception abruptly ended their subsequent drive. Following a 16-yard pass on first down, another interception curtailed their third drive. Later, Wisconsin had two opportunities to gain a single yard but failed, resulting in a three-and-out. Subsequently, Hunter Simmons committed a costly fumble, followed by a turnover-on-downs on a 4th & 1 passing attempt, and a punt from Iowa territory. A very unfortunate sequence.
To improve offensive performance on early downs, Wisconsin must maintain a balanced approach.
Against Michigan, their offensive strategy closely resembled that of the Ohio State game. Following a well-executed opening drive featuring nine running plays and three pass plays (all on first downs for 36 yards), the Badgers prioritized establishing their running game but struggled to gain traction. Ultimately, Wisconsin ran the ball eight times on first down, gaining only 24 yards (including a five-yard jet sweep), while completing 5 of 6 pass attempts on first down for 59 yards in the first half.
After the opening drive, Wisconsin had five rushes for 12 yards and was 2/3 on passes for 23 yards on first down.
Wisconsin did experience some success running the ball on first downs against Maryland in Week 5, but they haven’t been able to replicate that success since, as opposing defenses don’t respect their passing game. Knowing that a run is likely, defensive ends are able to aggressively attack the ball-carrier, limiting the team’s success on the ground.
Last weekend, it appeared as though the Badgers recognized the need to be aggressive, especially given their “nothing to lose” mentality. However, their play-calling didn’t reflect this, as they ran the ball on 80 percent of their first-down plays, resulting in minimal gains. This consistently set up difficult second and third-down situations, which has been an unproductive formula for the Badgers this year.
I inquired with Luke Fickell about the lack of success on first downs with their run rate against Ohio State. Here’s what he said:
“What do you do on first down? I think that all those things are things that we continue to look at. It’s not like we don’t evaluate after the game exactly what it is that we did on every down and distance. Do we become predictable? Yes. We expect to get more [than two yards] whether we’re running it at 75 percent of the time on first down.
“But we also knew that there was a plan in place. And keeping ourselves out of third and longs are really important. And no, two yards and then two yards and then two yards is probably not going to get it done, but recognizing we are a little bit better on those third and medium situations, as opposed to putting yourself in the third long situation. So there’s a balance there. No matter what, you’ve got to be a hell of a lot more efficient. Everybody talks about third down, and that’s the most important down [as the] money down. Truth of the matter is, [it’s] first down. First down puts you in the driver’s seat on where you are and what predictability that you have moving forward. And so as much as anything, the focus on trying to be on track on first down is even more important to us than where we are in a lot of different other areas.”
I understand Fickell’s reasoning. Wisconsin is aiming to avoid facing 2nd & 10s or getting sacked on first down, which would further hinder their progress, given their struggles in those situations. However, playing to win involves recognizing and exploiting situational advantages. Currently, opposing teams don’t respect the Badgers’ ability to throw the ball. Wisconsin still needs to win those 1-on-1 matchups on the outside, but there are more favorable opportunities available on earlier downs that the Badgers can leverage to ignite their offense.
At present, the efficiency of first-down runs is lacking, making them nearly as detrimental as an incomplete pass on first down. Throws on first down don’t necessarily have to be deep shots, although Fickell has acknowledged that they need to attempt more downfield throws to command respect from opposing defenses.
They need to use the short passing game more, similar to what they did at the start of the season. Wisconsin has moved away from that style of play a bit, whether it’s because the quarterback isn’t getting the ball out quickly enough or because there aren’t enough plays designed for quick releases. When they improve in that area, the Badgers will feel more comfortable with their passing game, without placing too much burden on their quarterback.
Right now, there doesn’t seem to be a lot of faith in Hunter Simmons. Which makes sense, considering how the Badgers have played on offense lately. But, if the Badgers are truly embracing a “nothing to lose” mentality and are serious about trying to win, they need to cut loose and give him opportunities because that is the biggest situational advantage they currently have.
Wisconsin’s offensive line has also had problems with pass protection. So, putting a backup quarterback behind a shaky offensive line is also probably why they run so much on first down. But that also goes back to the quick passing game, which we really haven’t seen much since that first drive against Michigan and since Billy Edwards was on the field.
Wisconsin has displayed one of the least productive offenses across the nation in the current season. Ineffective or detrimental plays on initial downs contribute significantly to this predicament, as the team’s composition is not conducive to overcoming deficits, either in a given game or even within a specific drive.
Last week represented a notable regression, characterized by predictable play-calling on first downs. While it’s true that the Badgers should strive for greater efficiency, even when facing defenses anticipating a run, previous Wisconsin offenses have demonstrated the ability to perform effectively against stacked defensive formations. However, the current group lacks this capability, underscoring the need to exploit situational advantages, even if it entails accepting some inherent risks.
Wisconsin will inevitably encounter three-and-out situations, as incomplete passes on first down can also be costly for the team. However, they already punt at one of the highest rates in college football. Therefore, they must foster greater balance and embrace a more aggressive approach on first down, which will, in turn, enhance the effectiveness of the running game, as it has in previous games this year.
