The World Series presents a confrontation between the National League’s predicted victor and a somewhat astonishing American League champion, particularly when considering preseason forecasts. The Toronto Blue Jays will host the current World Series champion Dodgers tonight, marking the first World Series in Canada since 1993. The highlighted matchup will be the Jays’ potent offensive lineup against LA’s formidable starting rotation. Of course, the California team has their own talented group of hitters, so let’s analyze the players who will be batting in this series, which begins tonight at 8pm ET.
Neither team demonstrates a substantial decline facing left-handed or right-handed pitchers, crucial for Toronto as they will encounter southpaw Blake Snell and right-hander Yoshinobu Yamamoto in the initial two games of the series — no easy feat, considering Snell’s impressive 0.86 ERA and 28 strikeouts in 21 innings this postseason, and Yamamoto following a complete-game victory in Milwaukee. The Jays experience just eight points of OPS difference on the platoon side, while the Dodgers have just five points. There is no convenient way to substitute relievers throwing from a particular side here, which makes managerial decisions even more important — and neither John Schneider nor Dave Roberts are known for their flawless bullpen management.
The Dodgers do exhibit some susceptibility when playing away from Chavez Ravine, transitioning from significantly above league average (121 sOPS+) at home to a 105 mark away, potentially amplifying the relative value of Toronto’s home-field advantage. The Jays, like most teams, also perform better offensively at home but without the significant contrast seen in their opponents. As the ALCS recently demonstrated, securing that additional game at the Rogers Centre could lead to more Toronto heroics, similar to George Springer.
View Link
Arguably the most crucial aspect for Toronto is the danger posed by the top three hitters in LA’s batting order, with Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, and Freddie Freeman forming one of the best trio of batters on the same team in recent memory. Naturally, this elevates the importance of the first inning in each game, as it guarantees that all three will bat consecutively. Unlike many postseason matchups, the starting pitcher becomes proportionally more crucial.
The Brewers learned this lesson painfully in the final two games of their season as they desperately tried to remain competitive in the NLCS, with Ohtani hitting a triple and Betts hitting a double to quickly give LA the lead in Game 3, and Ohtani hitting a home run to start the Game 4 clincher.
View Link
Ace Kevin Gausman and rookie Trey Yesavage—who will get the Game 1 start since Gausman relieved in ALCS Game 7—will essentially be responsible for managing those three players twice over. While George Springer, Nathan Lukes, and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. are a formidable top three in their own right, they don’t quite match the caliber of three future Hall of Famers.
However, once you get past those top three Dodgers — again, no easy task — the depth of the Jays lineup actually surpasses that of LA. We tend to perceive this generation of Los Angeles teams as a perpetual motion machine, composed of nine or ten or eleven players who are all challenging to face as a pitcher. The NL champions are still better than most, but their 6-9 hitters reach base less often than Toronto’s, with only the No. 9 hole of the Jays OBP’ing worse. There’s not nearly as much power in the end of the lineup, but the Jays’ bottom of the order wears you down in a way we’re not used to seeing from the nominal worst hitters on the team.
That OBP from the bottom of the order also contributes to creating moments like Springer’s Game 7 home run, and on the other side, helps explain why Ohtani had 55 home runs this year but “just” 102 RBI, why he scored so many more runs than he drove in. When Ohtani or Betts come to the plate, there aren’t nearly as many opportunities with men on as there generally are for the top of the Jays’ lineup.
I think most people would consider the Dodgers the favorites in this series, and I can’t fault you if you’re one of them. The two keys for the Jays are finding ways to wear down LA’s starting pitching advantage, and limiting the damage of the MVP triplicate. Both easier said than done of course, but the home/road splits and especially the chances the Jays create with such a deep lineup make everything a little closer than what we saw in the NLCS.
