The clash between the Yankees and Red Sox is recognized as the premier rivalry in MLB, and its significance will be heightened as it’s featured as the Sunday Night Baseball game this week. A late-August showdown, carrying postseason implications, is expected to amplify the tension, as both teams currently hold an AL Wild Card berth but are looking to fend off challenges from the Royals, Guardians, and Rangers. The pitching matchup on Sunday will showcase Carlos Rodon against Dustin May, and Boston has an opportunity to achieve a four-game sweep following their victories in the initial three games with scores of 6-3, 1-0, and 12-1, respectively.
The current odds for the Yankees vs. Red Sox game position New York as the favorite with -162 odds, while Boston is considered the underdog at +133. The projected over/under for the total runs scored is 8.5, with the first pitch slated for 7:10 p.m. ET at Yankee Stadium. Rodon’s over/under for total strikeouts is set at 6.5, while May’s over/under for total outs recorded is 15.5.
The SportsLine Projection Model conducts 10,000 simulations of each MLB game. As it enters Week 22 of the 2025 MLB season, it demonstrates a profitable 33-24 record on top-rated MLB money-line selections. It has shown excellence in making home run prop selections this season, generating nearly 50 units of profit.
Here are the model’s recommended wagers for Yankees vs. Red Sox on Sunday:
- Over 8.5 total runs (-114)
- Aaron Judge Over 0.5 RBI (+105)
Over 8.5 total runs in Yankees vs. Red Sox (-114)
Rodon has generally performed well throughout the season, but the Red Sox seem to have developed an effective approach against him. He experienced consecutive losses to Boston in June and conceded eight earned runs over 10 innings across those two appearances. In contrast, May has improved since joining the Red Sox but still maintains a 4.59 ERA for the season. We’ve observed nine or more runs in two of the first three games of this series, and the model anticipates an average of over 10 combined runs, with the over occurring in 63% of simulations.
Aaron Judge Over 0.5 RBI (+105)
An injury-related absence likely prevented Judge from seriously contending for the American League Triple Crown, but he remains the frontrunner (-290) to secure AL MVP honors. He currently boasts a .326/.440/.674 slash line (leading the AL in all three categories) for the season, accompanied by 40 home runs and 92 RBI across 119 games. While he hasn’t previously faced May, the matchup appears to favor Judge. May predominantly throws sinkers or four-seam fastballs over 50% of the time, and Judge has a .877 slugging percentage against fastballs. The model projects an average of 0.7 RBI for Judge and considers the over at plus-money to be a four-star rated play.
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