A collective sense of relief washes over us: Finally, the SEC is transitioning to a nine-game conference football schedule.
Hold the front page!
It only required four years of deliberation, contention, and strategic positioning.
But what implications does this shift hold for the broader landscape of college football?
For one, this means a reduction in SEC matchups against non-power conference competitors in FBS and FCS, as the league will uphold its requirement for schools to participate in at least one non-conference game against a peer power league institution or Notre Dame (implying 10 power league contests).
However, the most significant consequence of this move might reside in the future configuration of the College Football Playoff format.
Let’s begin with a fundamental point: This may not immediately alter the CFP format, and reaching an agreement on a future structure in the near term seems improbable.
Yes, the SEC’s choice could facilitate and enhance dialogues with Big Ten authorities concerning a future format, but it doesn’t guarantee that Big Ten decision-makers will swiftly endorse the proposed “5+11” format that the SEC, ACC, and Big 12 have publicly advocated.
Indeed, on Thursday, a Big Ten source informed Yahoo Sports that while the SEC’s action is viewed as a favorable step, the league harbors further apprehensions, notably pertaining to the CFP selection committee’s benchmarks for choosing the 11 at-large playoff participants.
After the SEC’s move to a nine-game conference schedule, the pressure is on Big Ten commissioner Tony Petitti. (Louis Grasse/Getty Images)
(Louis Grasse via Getty Images)
Recall that, based on an agreement signed by all FBS conferences last year, the Big Ten and SEC possess authority over forthcoming CFP formats, provided they engage in “meaningful” dialogue with the ACC and Big 12.
The divergence between the two conferences endures. One advocates for more at-large selections, while the other desires more automatic qualifiers. The Big Ten has proposed 16 and even 28-team formats that allocate an uneven distribution of AQs to specific leagues, with as many as four for both the SEC and Big Ten in a 16-team model circulated this past spring, and seven AQs for the two leagues in a model that emerged last week.
The ACC and Big 12, alongside the SEC, have collectively endorsed the 5+11 model, as have the Group of Six conferences plus Notre Dame. This has isolated the Big Ten and resulted in a deadlock in CFP format negotiations.
The SEC’s preference for a 5+11 format “remains” following the transition to a nine-game conference schedule, SEC commissioner Greg Sankey told Paul Finebaum on his program Thursday. “There are other concepts that have been discussed. We haven’t formalized positions on those. Much remains to be done,” he stated.
The latest “other” concept is a 24 or 28-team format circulated last week by Big Ten leaders. While some SEC school officials are interested in examining such a model, many others — particularly the league’s presidents — are averse to such an expansive postseason bracket, with one recently quipping, “It’s a non-starter.”
Is the SEC’s shift to nine games a concession to the Big Ten, intended to secure that conference’s support for the 5+11 model? After all, Big Ten administrators and coaches have conveyed their opposition to a format with such a substantial at-large pool if the SEC maintained eight conference games. They surmised that the league would possess an advantage in securing those at-large berths (which was likely a valid assessment).
But it might require weeks or months for the Big Ten to garner sufficient backing to override its administrators and coaches’ desire for a more NFL-esque field featuring automatic qualifiers.
However, the SEC’s transition to nine wasn’t solely motivated by CFP considerations, of course.
Financial factors are also at play. As previously reported, the schools are poised to receive additional revenue from ESPN for playing an additional conference game, potentially as much as $5 million annually per school. In an era of financial strain in college sports, any new revenue is welcomed.
There’s an additional element as well. The transition to nine affords the league the capacity to sell tickets to another SEC game, to incorporate such a game into season-ticket packages, and to generate more sponsorship and advertising revenue for that game.
They’ll also compete against each other more frequently. The nine-game schedule will adhere to a “3-6” framework, where each school plays three permanent opponents and six rotating opponents each year, ensuring that each of the 16 schools plays the others at least once every two years.
Incidentally, the SEC, at least in past years when this “3-6” model was selected, intended to select each school’s permanent opponents based on three criteria: (1) primary and secondary rivalries; (2) geography; and (3) equity. How is the equity consideration addressed? It’s fairly straightforward: The SEC’s initial plan was to leverage the preceding 10 years of win-loss records to establish tiers and then pair schools accordingly. However, the paramount element is arguably historic rivalries.
Returning to the national impact.
Thursday’s decision surprised many.
“That emerged unexpectedly,” remarked one SEC leader.
“I wonder what catalyzed the change?” questioned another.
Momentum for a nine-game schedule grew in the spring, coinciding with the Big Ten and SEC’s discussion concerning the “4-4-2-2-1” CFP format, which heavily favored automatic qualifiers. However, SEC coaches rejected the format in May, leading many to believe that the league would likely remain at eight conference games.
What transpired this week?
The CFP announced a modification to its selection committee criteria for choosing at-large teams, placing greater emphasis on games against top-tier programs. Was this sufficient to sway a divided room of athletic directors who had been debating between eight and nine games for four years? Possibly.
Regardless, they arrived at a decision.
And now, the lingering question: Will the Big Ten endorse the 16-team format that is favored by the other conferences?
