Jalen Green was off to a noteworthy beginning to his NBA journey, as he supported the Rockets to a 5-0 mark by making a quick impact along with Alperen Sengun in Houston.
With Jamal Murray sidelined to start the season, Green received a chance to exhibit his skills as the Rockets’ primary ball-handler and averaged 14.0 points, 4.0 rebounds and 3.8 assists per game on 50/35.7/83.3 shooting percentages. That continued until he exited a defeat to the Mavericks after just 11 minutes of play with a calf issue that Shams Charania mentioned on Monday will sideline him for “several weeks.”
The advantage for Green and the Rockets is that it isn’t a more critical ailment, but they’ll now need to proceed cautiously with their young emerging star as a calf issue tends to require attention for a period even after a player gets back on the court.
That, along with Murray’s anticipated return to the starting lineup, will probably move Green to the edges of the NBA’s Rookie of the Year competition. That now seems ready to be a two-player competition between Orlando’s Anthony Black and Oklahoma City’s Chet Holmgren. At FanDuel Sportsbook, Black is currently a -110 favorite with Holmgren close behind at +130, with nobody else inside +2000. (Green dropped to +4000 as a result of his injury.)
Holmgren being second is somewhat unexpected in isolation, as he has been the undisputed best rookie in the initial two weeks of the season. Holmgren is averaging 20.3 points, 5.0 assists and 5.0 rebounds per game on 49.5/42.1/82.4 splits and has created an exciting Thunder backcourt with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. He generates highlight-reel plays almost every night and has quickly established himself as a well-known name not only in Oklahoma City, but for NBA enthusiasts around the nation.
The question is whether he can sustain the red-hot shooting start (he shot 34% from three at Gonzaga) and how his role will change whenever Luguentz Dort returns to action. Mark Daigneault will have to discover the right balance between working back in one of his likely top stars without interfering with the great chemistry Gilgeous-Alexander and Holmgren have created just two weeks into the season.
Black being the significant favorite for the award coming into the season means bookmakers are hesitant to move him out of the top spot in ROY odds this early in the season despite Holmgren clearly surpassing him in on-court production. The No. 1 overall pick has been placed into an ill-fitting point guard role in Orlando and asked to sink or swim by Jamahl Mosley. The objective is to make him a better, more confident playmaker with the ball in his hands long-term, but in the immediate he has struggled as expected with such a substantial on-ball workload.
Black is averaging 13.8 points, 6.5 rebounds and 3.0 assists per game on 37.3/28.6/100.0 splits in Orlando, as he’s struggled with efficiency while being tasked with creating most of his own offense. There are many reasons for optimism that Black will be producing at the level he was anticipated to by the time this season ends.
His lone season at Arkansas showed that he is more than capable of shaking off a slow start and dominating once he gets comfortable. On top of that, at some point, Black should relinquish the point guard role back to Markelle Fultz, which should help his shooting numbers. With so much of the season left in front of him, there’s plenty of time for him to put up the kind of stats to pull closer to Holmgren.
The competition between those two for Rookie of the Year will be exciting to follow all season. At some point in the near future Green will be back on the court and will throw his name into the hat for All-Rookie team honors in what has proven early on to be a quality rookie class, but his injury and the role question when Murray is back in the rotation make it hard to see a route to ROY. Rockets fans will be less concerned about that and more thrilled about the prospects of what the team can appear like whenever he and Murray are healthy given the Rockets have thrust themselves into the playoff conversation out West with their hot start.
