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Sam Tighe
It has frequently been suggested that, during a Premier League season consisting of 38 matches, any disparity in chance occurrences will level out. As the familiar saying suggests, “every team faces each other twice,” which holds merit. However, pivotal aspects such as judgments from match officials, physical setbacks, and modifications in leadership can exert considerable influence on a club’s performance, either positively or negatively.
Bearing that in mind, we chose to undertake an informal examination of which Premier League teams have experienced periods of favorable circumstances or suffered from unfortunate situations. A precise methodology for quantifying something as abstract and transient as fortune does not exist. However, the subsequent assessment illustrates how various teams have navigated the aforementioned essential domains:
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1) Concerns regarding player availability: Our focus transcends occasional individual afflictions. We concentrate on circumstances wherein numerous prominent team members were unavailable or entire positional units were incapacitated. Essentially, encountering Chelsea in the absence of a prominent player such as Cole Palmer, or competing against Arsenal without the presence of Bukayo Saka and Martin Ødegaard, will yield a vastly dissimilar experience compared to engagements with a full-strength squad.
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2) Adjustments in managerial positions: The notion of a “new manager bounce” implies that encountering a reinvigorated team subsequent to the departure of a struggling head coach represents a disadvantage. Nevertheless, in one specific occurrence, the removal of the manager demonstrably diminished the team’s overall effectiveness.
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3) Established instances of errors by referees / VAR: With greater precision, we reference the six recognized errors occurring thus far during the current season. We have scrutinized which teams benefitted from or were negatively impacted by these errors.
Upon examining the aforementioned factors, the outcomes might offer some justification for why particular teams have surpassed or fallen short of anticipated benchmarks, contributing context to the initial 11 Premier League match weeks observed.
Injury issues
LUCKY: Opponents faced had several players unavailable
LIVERPOOL
Liverpool secured victories in their initial five Premier League fixtures consecutively. Nevertheless, the prevailing analysis surrounding this sequence emphasized that they were fortunate, owing to their actual performances not aligning entirely with the outcomes and an over-reliance on late-stage goals. Potentially, one contributing element to this positive spell involved the injury situations of their competitors, as they confronted numerous severely diminished teams.
Indeed, they initiated their campaign with a 4-2 triumph against AFC Bournemouth, who lacked so many central players that fielding a coherent unit proved challenging. Subsequently, after two weeks, Liverpool achieved a 1-0 victory at Anfield against an Arsenal side not only without Saka and Ødegaard, but also witnessing the premature departure of central defender William Saliba due to injury after a mere five minutes of play.
The Reds also form part of a collection of clubs profiting from playing against a Chelsea team absent of Palmer, despite their eventual 2-1 defeat during added time.
NOTTINGHAM FOREST
Forest also gained from advantageous injury scenarios, despite their league placement of 19th potentially casting doubt on this assertion. They commenced the season by defeating Brentford 3-1, despite the latter missing influential midfielder Mikkel Damsgaard. Then, one month later, they fell 3-0 to Arsenal in a game which Arsenal were without Saka and Ødegaard.
They were afforded a prime chance to overcome Chelsea following the October international interval, as the Blues had to play without Palmer and Enzo Fernández while limiting Moisés Caicedo’s participation to 45 minutes. However, they still experienced a 3-0 loss.
If only they successfully translated their fortunate circumstances into tangible point gains.
UNLUCKY: Numerous injuries impacted team performance
ARSENAL
Arsenal’s position at the summit of the Premier League standings is enhanced by the understanding that head coach Mikel Arteta has needed to manage without numerous crucial individuals during portions of the opening sequence. The Gunners dropped their initial significant contest of the season through a 1-0 away loss to Liverpool. Though this was reasonably predictable due to the absence of Saka, Ødegaard, and Saliba.
They likewise faced Manchester City excluding Ødegaard, additionally only utilizing Saka for 45 minutes as he recuperated from the ailment that sidelined him during the Liverpool engagement. A comparable situation arose in their away fixture versus Crystal Palace, except Saliba was limited to 45 minutes. Subsequently, immediately preceding the November international break, they engaged Sunderland at the Stadium of Light without a recognized center forward, as Viktor Gyökeres joined Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus on the injury list, causing Mikel Merino to operate up front in a provisional center forward capacity.
FULHAM
Following five defeats throughout their preceding six league matches, Fulham precariously inhabit a position just above the relegation threshold. Questions are emerging regarding the circumstances that led to this situation. One reasonable explanation centers on an unfavorable sequence of events involving injury-related circumstances.
Marco Silva has encountered games this season without an available recognized striker, on account of injuries sustained by both Raúl Jiménez and Rodrigo Muniz. They have likewise experienced significant defensive challenges, left back Antonee Robinson has been absent predominantly, whereas center back Joachim Andersen departed prematurely after 42 minutes during a 1-0 home defeat by Arsenal. Consequently, the entirety of the club’s preferred defensive formation and midfield anchor Saša Lukić were unable to complete the match.
This season, the Cottagers represent one of the teams most negatively impacted by injuries. Exacerbating their predicament, we will revisit their situation within the VAR segment later on.
CHELSEA
To conclude, Chelsea has contended with substantial injury concerns thus far during this campaign. They have remarkably generated satisfactory results regardless. Despite maintaining a considerable squad—which implies a better capacity to accommodate absences—the circumstances surrounding the summer’s Club World Cup scheduling, with a limited preseason training window of merely several weeks, presented insurmountable challenges.
The Blues have been acutely affected in two distinct zones: central defense and central midfield. Palmer has not featured in eight league contests, Romeo Lavia in seven, whereas Dário Essugo underwent thigh surgery, contributing to his protracted absence. This has stretched the club’s resources in the central zones, amplifying the impressiveness of their 3-0 victory against Nottingham Forest in the absence of the previously referenced individuals plus Fernández.
Correspondingly, by the conclusion of their hard-fought 2-1 victory versus Liverpool, all but one of their central defenders had sustained injuries. This encompassed Levi Colwill, Wesley Fofana, Tosin Adarabioyo, Trevoh Chalobah, Josh Acheampong, and Benoît Badiashile.
Managerial changes
Throughout 11 rounds, four managerial changes have occurred: Nottingham Forest initiated two of these, West Ham one, and Wolves one. This latter has yet to participate in a game under the guidance of new appointee Rob Edwards.
Logic indicates three teams would have encountered the reputed “new manager bounce,” this is not entirely accurate. One managerial alteration served exclusively to worsen conditions.
LUCKY: Competed against a club in managerial turmoil
ARSENAL
After just three games, Forest replaced Nuno Espirito Santo, popular among fans and players, with former Tottenham manager Ange Postecoglou. This led to a rapid decline in morale and a crisis of playing style, meaning Arsenal benefitted from facing them next. The Gunners won with a 3-0 scoreline against Forest.
BOURNEMOUTH
Due to their state of disarray, Postecoglou was dismissed by Forest just 39 days and five Premier League games later. He was replaced by Sean Dyche. The former Everton and Burnley head coach commenced his Forest career with an away fixture versus Bournemouth, which resulted in a 2-0 defeat. Consequently, we regard Bournemouth as privileged to have encountered a club in such disarray.
UNLUCKY: Subject to the ‘new manager bounce’ effect
EVERTON
A team that endured difficulty from the employment of a new manager was Everton. After Forest relieved Santo, West Ham acted rapidly to bring him into the club. He subsequently acquired a draw in their away match with Everton. Even though on the surface this may seem unimpressive, it was their first point of the month and the Toffees were first to compete with Nuno.
Confirmed VAR errors
LUCKY: Received preferential judgments
UNLUCKY: Inequitable penalization through VAR
VAR’s implementation was to eliminate officiating blunders from the game. Lamentably, some still arise. In reality, the presence of such errors now proves even more exasperating, as officials possess multiple opportunities to accurately render their determinations.
The KMI (key match incident) review panel verified that six VAR errors have been produced during the present season. The list is as follows:
LUCKY: AFC Bournemouth
UNLUCKY: Liverpool
– AFC Bournemouth should have been issued an early red card during their opening fixture. Marcos Senesi’s handball denied Hugo Ekitike of Liverpool a clear scoring chance at the 13th minute. Nonetheless, Liverpool proceeded to secure a 4-2 win.
LUCKY: Chelsea
UNLUCKY: Fulham
– In August, Fulham assumed the lead against local opponents Chelsea at Stamford Bridge due to a marvelous goal by Josh King. The goal was incorrectly disallowed for a foul in the build-up following a VAR review. The Cottagers faced a 2-0 loss.
LUCKY: Everton
UNLUCKY: Wolves
– Everton’s Hugo Bueno was tripped within the penalty area against Wolves and it should have been judged a penalty. At the time, they faced a 3-1 deficit and consequently lost the match 3-2.
LUCKY: Brentford
UNLUCKY: Manchester United
– Manchester United were reasonably dumbfounded when Brentford’s Nathan Collins was only displayed a yellow card for pulling Bryan Mbeumo back in the box, opposed to a red. The event occurred in the 72nd minute and United were down 2-1, they went on to face a 3-1 loss.
LUCKY: Chelsea
UNLUCKY: Brighton
– Brighton & Hove Albion should have had a penalty at Stamford Bridge. Chelsea defender Malo Gusto produced a high boot challenge on Yankuba Minteh in the box. The final result remained uninfluenced, as the Seagulls ultimately secured victory.
LUCKY: Bournemouth
UNLUCKY: Crystal Palace
– Marcos Senesi of AFC Bournemouth narrowly escaped a second event during October. His last-man tackle on Crystal Palace’s Ismaïla Sarr was initially ruled a yellow on the field, when it should have been a red. Crystal Palace were down by 2 goals at the time, but fought back to a 3-3 score.
CONCLUSION
Even though this context might not be an exact measure, it provides important information regarding the opening timeframe of Premier League matches.
Liverpool’s victorious series was aided through competing against teams whose main players were absent, while Fulham has been plagued by injuries. This goes a certain distance to clarify their position just ahead of the drop zone.
Chelsea has gone both ways; a VAR mistake led to extra points, though they have additionally proved their location around the top of the standings despite how many significant absences they’ve experienced.
We’ll check in again after another third of the season to see how things have changed.
