J.J. McCarthy shines, but Justin Jefferson fades
Some considered my Week 15 bold forecasts absurd when I predicted J.J. McCarthy would rank among the top five quarterbacks against the Cowboys. While I didn’t quite hit QB5, the essence of the prediction held true. McCarthy enters Monday Night Football ranked as the QB7 for the week, a testament to his performance in Minnesota’s 34-26 away victory, which signaled a significant growth moment for the team’s signal-caller.
His start wasn’t ideal. McCarthy’s initial pass was deflected and intercepted, a type of beginning that often derails young quarterbacks. Yet, he quickly composed himself. He responded with composure, adhering to the offensive scheme, and executing effectively when opportunities arose. He once again recorded three total touchdowns—two through the air and one on the ground—building on his strong three-touchdown outing against Washington.
Perhaps the most impressive aspect was what didn’t occur: zero sacks. The Vikings’ offensive line held firm, and McCarthy aided their effort by moving adeptly and avoiding pressure.
However, the running game continues to present difficulties. Aaron Jones Sr. and Jordan Mason each surpassed 10 carries, but neither managed to gain more than 35 rushing yards. This ground attack offers no intimidation. The rushing touchdowns were credited to McCarthy and C.J. Ham, illustrating the struggle Minnesota faces in generating effortless yardage on the ground.
And then there’s Justin Jefferson.
In the crucial phase of fantasy playoffs, his impact has been absent. He has recorded two receptions for three consecutive games, accumulating a mere 37 yards over that period. This isn’t a mere slump; it’s a complete disappearance. Jordan Addison offered no relief either, and the Viking who truly delivered was Jalen Nailor, with three receptions for 47 yards and two touchdowns. It appears that when McCarthy needs to reach the end zone currently, Nailor is his preferred target, rather than the prominent names we typically anticipate.
Meanwhile, Dallas’ offensive display exemplified unproductive volume. Dak Prescott amassed 294 passing yards without any touchdowns or interceptions, yet the offense never felt like a serious threat. The Cowboys managed only two offensive touchdowns, both on the ground from Javonte Williams and Malik Davis, a performance marred by Brandon Aubrey missing two field goals. Such was the nature of their evening.
CeeDee Lamb led the receiving efforts with six catches for 111 yards. Beyond him, production sharply declined, and for those relying on secondary players for playoff advancement, this game was detrimental. George Pickens contributed three receptions for 33 yards when his contribution was most critical. Jake Ferguson added two catches for 16 yards while battling an injury, a crushing blow for anyone forced to start either player, expecting significant volume that never translated into meaningful fantasy points. Javonte sustained a minor injury but returned, yet Dallas still couldn’t produce a passing touchdown to salvage your lineup.
The upcoming game against the Chargers poses a challenge, but Week 17 at Washington is the contest to target—provided you remain in playoff contention.
Instant reaction: McCarthy demonstrates significant development, but the vanishing acts of Jefferson (and Pickens) are often how fantasy seasons conclude.
Rams and Lions offenses ignite — but Gibbs remains subdued
For those seeking fantasy points, the Rams-Lions matchup was a feast. The Rams emerged victorious, 41-34, in a contest where nearly every possession culminated in explosive plays—a fact affirmed by the final statistics. Jared Goff passed for 338 yards and three touchdowns, but Detroit’s offensive output was notably imbalanced. David Montgomery found the end zone, yet both he and Jahmyr Gibbs were essentially 30-yard rushers, with neither back eclipsing 40 rushing yards. This absence of ground production was significant—especially if you started Gibbs, as his performance was a clear disappointment: 58 total yards and no touchdowns in a game where the two teams combined for 75 points. Such an outcome would defy belief until witnessed firsthand.
Detroit’s passing targets were remarkably concentrated. Amon-Ra St. Brown exploded with 13 catches for 164 yards and two touchdowns on 18 targets. Jameson Williams notched seven receptions for 134 yards and a touchdown on nine targets. Khalif Raymond had a single catch for 20 yards. That was the extent of it. Every other reception went to Amon-Ra, Jameson, or Gibbs. If you rostered the wide receivers, you’re celebrating. If you had Gibbs, you’re left questioning your roster decisions.
On the Rams’ side, Matthew Stafford threw for 368 yards, two touchdowns, and one interception. Kyren Williams and Blake Corum both scored, each accumulating over 70 rushing yards, with Kyren adding an extra touchdown to distinguish his performance. Puka Nacua was a standout with nine receptions for 181 yards on 11 targets, but the true playoff game-changer is Colby Parkinson: five catches, 75 yards, and two touchdowns, maintaining a key role in 13 personnel formations. Parkinson has consistently ranked as a top-five tight end in half-PPR over the past five weeks; he deserves a spot in your starting lineup.
Davante Adams also appeared to suffer a significant hamstring injury mid-route. If he is likely to miss Thursday’s game against Seattle, you should begin devising an alternative strategy immediately.
Instant reaction: Colby Parkinson is the tight end overlooked by many, and the Rams’ deployment of 13-personnel positions him as a strong Week 16 starter.
Lawrence’s Historic Outing
Trevor Lawrence just delivered a performance capable of completely reshaping the fantasy playoff landscape. This was a demonstration of pure dominance, not merely through accumulating unproductive yardage, but by controlling every critical aspect of the game. Lawrence concluded the day with 330 passing yards and five passing touchdowns, then proceeded to lead Jacksonville in rushing with five carries for 51 yards and an additional rushing touchdown. This stat line resembles something from a video game, and its historical significance is notable: no player before Lawrence had ever recorded 300-plus passing yards, five or more passing touchdowns, 50-plus rushing yards, and a rushing touchdown in a single game.
The most crucial element for fantasy implications moving forward is the *manner* in which it unfolded. Under Liam Coen, Lawrence appears commendably decisive and aggressive. He completed 11 of 11 passes for 216 yards and three touchdowns on throws traveling 10 or more air yards, setting career highs in all categories. This isn’t a fluke; it signifies an offensive scheme empowering its quarterback to challenge defenses vertically, altering our weekly projections. Brian Thomas Jr. reached the end zone, Parker Washington posted 50 yards, and although Jakobi Meyers didn’t score, he still finished second on the team in receiving yards. This represents genuine support, effective spacing, and reliable answers when the defense attempts to neutralize the primary read.
Then there’s Travis Etienne Jr., who remarkably scored three touchdowns despite accumulating only 32 rushing yards, with his longest run being just eight yards. This indicates that he receives the high-value touches. He converted all three scores and also contributed through the air on four targets. With Denver and Indianapolis next on the schedule, continue to confidently start the 10-4 Jaguars.
Instant reaction: Lawrence is now a weekly difference-maker, and Etienne is the invaluable scoring threat you must not bench in the fantasy playoffs.
McBride’s Dominant Display
Trey McBride witnessed Kyle Pitts Sr.’s explosive performance on Thursday night and seemed to claim the tight end position for himself. While not quite matching Pitts’ 166 yards and three touchdowns, this was undeniably a takeover. McBride concluded the game with 12 receptions for 134 yards and two touchdowns on a team-leading 13 targets, and it felt as though every pivotal moment gravitated toward him.
One characteristic of Arizona’s approach is their disregard for game flow. Score, down-and-distance, or situational context—none seem to influence them. They persist in their aggressive passing, and Jacoby Brissett was back to 40 pass attempts, yielding three touchdowns, two to McBride and one to Michael Wilson. This volume is the central narrative for fantasy purposes. The Cardinals aren’t attempting to protect their quarterback; they’re instructing him to throw, and McBride serves as the primary, secondary, and emergency option when plays break down.
McBride established his presence immediately. Five receptions on the opening drive in the first quarter made a clear statement, and his production never waned. He has now achieved 16 consecutive games with at least five receptions, surpassing Travis Kelce for the longest such streak by a tight end in NFL history. He also became the first tight end ever to record over 100 receptions in back-to-back seasons. This isn’t a temporary hot streak; it’s a defining characteristic of his play.
With Atlanta and Cincinnati next in Week 17—the most favorable tight end schedule imaginable—McBride is poised to be among the elite moving forward.
Instant reaction: Acknowledge the formidable player McBride has become, and Arizona’s pass-heavy strategy ensures his ceiling remains exceptionally high.
Josh Allen Is Unstoppable
It might appear that Josh Allen is having a supposedly “down” season, especially if one pays attention to external commentary rather than actual outcomes. The results on the scoreboard present a different picture. Allen currently boasts 37 total touchdowns against 12 turnovers, an impressive 3-to-1 touchdown-to-turnover ratio for a quarterback known for his high-risk, high-reward playstyle. The critics discussing an “efficiency dip” can continue their discourse, but the reality is that Buffalo has repeatedly been carried to victory by their No. 17.
This week provided the latest evidence. Trailing 21-0 on the road against New England, Buffalo’s win probability plummeted to 6.2%. Yet, Allen still managed to transform despair into points. He delivered three passing touchdowns, displaying composed footwork and fierce determination. He now holds a 4-0 record in games where his defense concedes 31 or more points, which is truly extraordinary. Most quarterbacks would be overwhelmed in such scenarios; Allen embraces it as a personal challenge.
And yes, the familiar refrain: “He lacks top-tier wide receivers.” So what? He still dominates games through sheer force of will, operating on a different plane than others in chaotic situations. He sustains the offense, absorbs hits, delivers crucial throws, and even shares the credit. James Cook scored two touchdowns, one of which Allen could have easily rushed in himself, but he ceded the moment to his running back. This demonstrates leadership and becomes critical as the season intensifies.
Cleveland is next, but I’m not concerned. Week 17 against Philly is precisely the kind of stage Allen thrives on. Talk of his MVP candidacy is not a nostalgic reflection; it’s a contemporary assessment.
Instant reaction: Josh Allen is a superstar, an inevitable force, and he’s carrying fantasy managers just as he carries the Buffalo Bills.
Incorrect Wrist, Ill-Fated Game
Last week, we were celebrating Shedeur Sanders’ nearly 400-yard passing explosion. This week, no one was flaunting their wristwear because it was not his moment—nor was it Cleveland’s. The Browns arrived in Chicago and were utterly dominated from the opening play. Not merely “struggled.” Not “started slowly.” This was an unmitigated catastrophe.
Sanders threw three interceptions, endured five sacks, registered a QBR of 8, and somehow still finished as Cleveland’s leading rusher with 24 yards. That isn’t a charming, peculiar statistic; it’s an alarm bell as large as the stadium itself. The offense lacked answers, rhythm, protection, and the ability to adapt when the Bears exerted pressure. Quinshon Judkins managed only 21 yards and found no clear running lanes. Isaiah Bond paced the team with 89 receiving yards, and Harold Fannin Jr. led with seven catches, yet the entire day felt like an uphill battle.
The most disheartening detail is one that lingers: Cleveland’s first offensive possession commenced inside its own one-yard line, and that was the closest they came to reaching the end zone all game.
THEIR end zone. Ponder that.
Jerry Jeudy dropped a touchdown that would have at least offered fantasy managers some solace, and it led to the kind of deflected, chaotic play that characterized the entire afternoon.
Next week brings Buffalo. Best of luck. Judkins is unplayable, and Fannin is the only viable option, even if it’s with considerable apprehension.
Instant reaction: Shedeur faced adverse circumstances, a poor game plan, and the Browns have no business impacting your fantasy lineup moving into next week.
Burrow and Bengals reach their nadir
An unsettling atmosphere surrounded Cincinnati in the week leading up to this game. Joe Burrow spoke at the podium, discussing the arduous journey, the difficulties, and the immense pressure of the current season. The Bengals then proceeded to play as if burdened by every ounce of that stress. The outcome was a scoreline utterly unexpected alongside Burrow’s name: 24-0. One might concede Baltimore winning, yes. But to suggest Baltimore would completely shut out Cincinnati at home and expect me to simply accept it as logical?
Absolutely not. Yet, here we are.
Burrow’s performance was subpar. He threw two interceptions, including a pick-six, absorbed three sacks, and the offense never managed to find its stride. The offensive line protection was porous, timing was off, and the Bengals never appeared to believe a touchdown drive was imminent. This is a grim assessment to write about this team in December, but it reflects the truth.
Ja’Marr Chase was the sole player who showed any semblance of life. Sixteen targets indicate elite usage, and it was encouraging to see him surpass 100 yards again after his recent inconsistent stretch, but targets without touchdowns alone do not secure playoff victories. If you started Burrow, Chase Brown, or Mike Gesicki in a bind, this game was a fantasy disaster that ended seasons.
And the striking aspect is that Baltimore didn’t even need to be flawless. Lamar Jackson threw an interception and took four sacks. Derrick Henry failed to score. Mark Andrews contributed nothing. The Ravens still secured a shutout because Cincinnati failed to show up.
Miami and Arizona are next. Favorable matchups await. But the necessary effort must also materialize.
Instant reaction: Burrow appeared defeated, the Bengals played without spirit, and if they don’t quickly revitalize, they’ll bring down fantasy lineups with them.
Saquon shows signs of revival
Without overstating the situation, Philadelphia finally initiated a reset. The Eagles broke their three-game losing streak in a much-needed bounce-back performance, making a definitive statement with a 31-0 victory. They completely dominated the Raiders, shutting them out despite missing key players, including Jalen Carter. This type of win halts the decline and allows for a moment of relief heading into the fantasy playoffs.
The fantasy narrative begins and ends with Saquon Barkley resuming his familiar form. He has delivered two consecutive strong games, marked by two consecutive rushing touchdowns. He recorded 78 rushing yards and a touchdown, along with two catches for 14 yards, but the significant factor is the developing trend, rather than just the stat sheet. Barkley has now achieved rushing touchdowns in back-to-back games for the first time since Weeks 1 and 2. This is crucial because time is running out, and we require dependable outcomes, not just optimistic feelings.
This wasn’t an open-field sprint either. The Eagles’ running game still occasionally feels like a grind. Barkley had to earn his yardage, and the unit as a whole doesn’t consistently overpower opponents. Philadelphia relied on efficiency, capitalizing on short fields, and successfully concluding drives. Jalen Hurts tossed three touchdowns on 175 passing yards, Dallas Goedert found the end zone twice, and A.J. Brown scored once. Not immense yardage, but plentiful points.
The upcoming schedule appears favorable. Washington is next, followed by an away game at Buffalo, and then back to face the Commanders to conclude the regular season. Barkley’s trajectory is finally moving in the right direction.
Instant reaction: Saquon is consistently scoring touchdowns again, which is precisely the kind of momentum you want to carry into the fantasy playoffs.
Nico Collins is the catalyst
Nico Collins ignited the action almost immediately from the first snap, and from that point, the game was largely decided. Houston started strongly at home, playing with a sense of urgency, and Nico initiated the scoring on the first drive with a 57-yard touchdown that transformed the entire afternoon into a commanding performance. The Texans overwhelmed the Cardinals with a 40-point outing, their defense remained formidable, and the offense never needed to force high volume because the early knockout blow dictated the game.
Nico concluded with three receptions for 85 yards and two touchdowns on just four targets, which highlights his exceptional efficiency. He doesn’t require a dozen targets to dismantle a defense; he merely needs an open window and an accurate throw. Since his return from injury, C.J. Stroud has been precisely what this offensive scheme demands: efficient, decisive, protective of the ball, and converting opportunities when they arise. This marked his first multi-touchdown passing game since October, achieved in Houston’s characteristic style, not by excessive throwing but by delivering impactful plays.
And let’s be clear, Dalton Schultz isn’t merely “involved”—Schultz must be in your lineup. His target volume is significant and has been consistently high for some time. He has quietly recorded four games with double-digit targets in his last six, and this consistent tight end usage is invaluable in the fantasy playoffs. When opposing teams prioritize covering Collins or adopt a conservative defensive shell to prevent explosive plays, Schultz becomes the reliable chain-mover and safety valve, and Stroud continues to feed him the ball.
Up next are the Raiders, followed by the Chargers. The Week 16 matchup against Las Vegas is the type of contest that can propel your lineup to success.
Instant reaction: Nico provides the spark, Schultz offers consistent weekly volume, and Houston’s efficiency is exactly what you desire in the fantasy playoffs.
Henderson surges forward
New England ultimately fell to Buffalo, 35-31, but the blame for this loss cannot be placed on the rookie running back. TreVeyon Henderson emerged as the Patriots’ top performer, achieving this in the most fantasy-rewarding manner possible: by delivering explosive plays that can instantaneously alter a matchup. Henderson finished with 14 carries for 148 yards and two touchdowns, with an efficiency that was almost audacious. When he finds an opening, his speed doesn’t appear typical for the NFL; it’s as if someone has accelerated the footage.
The Patriots also generated ground production from other players. Rhamondre Stevenson contributed six carries for 50 yards, and Drake Maye added four carries for 43 yards, but Henderson is the one who fundamentally changes the game’s dynamics. This distinguishes a “decent rushing day” from “your opponent just lost their playoff matchup in the first round.” Henderson achieves this without needing to be a workhorse with 20 touches. Even on only 49% of snaps, he can completely shift your weekly outcome due to the significant home-run potential of his touches.
And the historical significance is profound. Henderson now boasts four rushing touchdowns of 50-plus yards this season, the most by a rookie since 2000, tying Saquon Barkley. This places him in an exclusive group, with Adrian Peterson being another name in that esteemed company, illustrating the caliber of his explosive talent. He reached 21 miles per hour on a 65-yard touchdown run, and once he breaks into the secondary, it’s virtually game over.
Early season frustrations regarding his usage are definitively behind us. This is the exact reason he was drafted.
Instant reaction: TreVeyon Henderson exemplifies a player who can single-handedly win leagues in 2025.
