BloodHorse news editor Byron King presents his weekly ranking, the Derby Dozen for 2026, profiling his top contenders for the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve on May 2.
Three pivotal 200-point qualifying races for the Kentucky Derby are scheduled for this Saturday: the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, the Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino at Aqueduct, and the Santa Anita Derby at Santa Anita Park.
To stay current with narratives and data concerning the Triple Crown and the pathway to the Kentucky Derby, consult America’s Best Racing’s dedicated Triple Crown section.
1. Renegade
His performance on March 28 in the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park was truly outstanding. The horse that would eventually finish second, Silent Tactic, experienced an ideal race flow, moving to take command as they entered the stretch. However, Renegade effortlessly swept past, securing a victory by four lengths. Renegade completed the 1 1/8 miles in 1:49.70, achieving career-best speed figures: a 107 Equibase Speed Figure and a 98 Beyer Speed Figure. Despite this colt’s strong showing in late 2025, where he placed behind Paladin in the Remsen Stakes, his two starts as a three-year-old have shown remarkable improvement, propelling him to the top spot in the Derby Dozen after Paladin’s withdrawal.
2. Commandment
The Curlin Florida Derby Presented by Hill ‘n’ Dale Farms at Xalapa, run this past Saturday at Gulfstream Park, did not set up favorably for a late-closing horse, yet he managed to emerge victorious. Nonetheless, his narrow nose win over The Puma was incredibly close and could have gone either way based on the bob of a head, with Chief Wallabee only a half-length behind in third, highlighting the fierce competition within the Florida contingent. The Florida Derby was a high-caliber contest, featuring four horses who were listed in last week’s Derby Dozen. One of these, Nearly, has since dropped from the rankings due to his late weakening in the Florida Derby and possessing only 35 qualifying points for the Kentucky Derby.
3. Chief Wallabee
Despite securing the third position in the Florida Derby, his prospects remain promising, indicating significant potential for growth as he accumulates more racing experience. He appears to be still developing his racecraft. Chief Wallabee looked poised while tracking the pace in the Florida Derby with jockey Junior Alvarado, but ultimately could only produce a moderate surge in the closing stages. Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott commented, “As well as he was traveling on the bridle, when Junior released him, he thought he would probably quicken a little more,” Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott said. “But, you know, it’s only his third race, and they’ve got to learn to do that. He’s getting more experience, and it wasn’t a bad race. It was a good race.”
4. The Puma
He not only competes for several of the same owners as Mage, but also shares other parallels with the winner of the 2023 Kentucky Derby. Mage likewise finished second in the Florida Derby, narrowly beaten by Forte. (A highly anticipated Derby confrontation between Forte and Mage never materialized when Forte was scratched from the Derby by a regulatory veterinarian due to a foot injury.) Just as Mage performed admirably despite defeat in the Florida Derby, so did The Puma, who started last and navigated a wide course throughout the race. The outcome of the race hinged on a photo finish that was so tight that, even after reviewing slow-motion replays, most spectators remained unsure of the victor until the official results were declared by the placing judges. The Puma’s racing style frequently leads to wide trips.
5. Class President
The winner of the Rebel Stakes is set to make his next appearance in the Toyota Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 4. This particular race has been won four times by Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher, most recently with Tapit Trice in 2023. Class President’s participation in the Blue Grass allows him approximately five weeks of rest since his head victory over Silent Tactic in the March 1 Rebel, providing a bit more recovery time compared to the qualifying races held last weekend, where Pletcher entered other contenders. Furthermore, when compared to Saturday’s Wood Memorial Stakes Presented by Resorts World Casino, it affords Class President the opportunity to compete in a Grade 1 event before Kentucky’s breeding community.
6. Silent Tactic
Regardless of whether one views the Arkansas Derby once or multiple times, it is clear that Silent Tactic was unequivocally second-best to Renegade. The latter demonstrated superior ability, at least on that particular late March Saturday at Oaklawn Park over 1 1/8 miles. No Kentucky Derby winner has triumphed in their immediate pre-Derby start since Authentic claimed the COVID-19 delayed Derby in 2020. A few of the horses who placed second in their final prep races (such as Mage and Sovereignty) did not have to contend with the victorious opponents in the Derby itself, as physical issues prevented those winners from participating.
7. Emerging Market
With Paladin no longer in contention, he now represents trainer Chad Brown’s primary hope for the Derby (alongside Iron Honor, who is starting in the Wood Memorial). Although Emerging Market secured only a head victory over runner-up Pavlovian in the Twinspires.com Louisiana Derby on March 21, and was a length ahead of the third-place finisher Golden Tempo – both of whom are likely to be priced at 20-1 or higher on Derby Day – this colt still merits serious consideration. Few horses achieve immediate success in a graded stakes race following their initial maiden win, a track change, and an increased distance. Yet, he adeptly managed all these challenges. However, he will likely require a few more lengths of improvement to overcome the formidable competition he will encounter in the Derby.
8. Further Ado
Spendthrift Farm – which experienced the misfortune of having its reigning champion two-year-old male, Ted Noffey, sidelined this spring – still has a chance to reach the Derby with this colt, who clinched the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last fall at Churchill Downs. The Blue Grass on Saturday is a race for which he seemingly has no valid excuses. His most impressive race occurred at Keeneland as a juvenile when he dominated by 20 lengths in his inaugural route contest, and he now has a race under his belt as a three-year-old after returning to action with a second-place finish behind the eventual Florida Derby runner-up The Puma in the ESMARK Tampa Bay Derby on March 7.
9. Potente
He and his stablemate from Bob Baffert’s barn, Cherokee Nation, drew posts 2 and 1, respectively, for the Santa Anita Derby this Saturday. Potente, at least, possesses the ability to race from a stalking position if other competitors outpace him for an advantageous spot heading into the first turn. Cherokee Nation, conversely, appears to be a colt who prefers to run unobstructed, meaning he will likely require a sharp break from the gate and assertive riding tactics from his jockey to secure such a position. Potente, who remains undefeated in two starts, will again face Robusta and So Happy, who finished second and third behind him when he triumphed in the San Felipe Stakes Presented by DK Horse at Santa Anita on March 7.
10. Pavlovian
The winner of the Sunland Park Derby and runner-up in the Louisiana Derby aims to become only the fifth California-bred to win the Kentucky Derby, and the first since California Chrome in 2014. While California Chrome was dominant within the state-bred divisions, this colt certainly did not display similar dominance last year and this winter, but his two performances in open stakes races in February and March – occurring after the reintroduction of blinkers – were highly promising. The addition of the shades has also enhanced his early foot.
11. Incredibolt
It was encouraging to observe how he recovered from a sixth-place finish in the Holy Bull Stakes on January 31 to claim victory in the Virginia Derby Presented by New Kent County on March 14. Breaking clear of traffic in the stretch, he delivered a powerful finish to secure a four-length win. As might be anticipated for an ungraded, one-turn race held in March, that particular event did not attract the elite of the three-year-old division, but Incredibolt deserves credit for the impressive manner and ease of his triumph. We should also acknowledge his success over two turns and on the Churchill Downs track, having previously won the 1 1/16-mile Street Sense Stakes there last year.
12. Reagan’s Honor
Currently lacking any Derby qualifying points, he essentially requires a top-two finish in Saturday’s Blue Grass to earn a spot in the Kentucky Derby starting gate. The Blue Grass serves as a significant class test after he handily defeated first-level allowance competition at Fair Grounds on February 19, subsequent to breaking his maiden at the same track. He has demonstrated fast times against less formidable opponents. In winning that allowance race, he covered 1 1/16 miles in 1:42.02, just a fraction off the track-record time of 1:42.01 set by eventual Grade 1 winner Olympiad in the 2022 Mineshaft Stakes.
