The 152nd edition of the Kentucky Derby is drawing near, with a scheduled post time of 6:57 p.m. ET at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky, this Saturday. This event marks the commencement of the Triple Crown, the most significant segment of the horse racing calendar, and stands as the sport’s largest single day for wagering.
Originally, Renegade was assigned the No. 1 starting gate and was listed as the 4-1 morning-line favorite. However, this week saw The Puma surpass him, leading to both horses now being considered joint favorites at 5-1. It is crucial to monitor the latest Derby odds here, as they will continue to fluctuate until the race begins.
Two prominent horse racing analysts, Lane Gold (host of Kentucky’s Winners Circle) and Peter Fornatale (founder of In the Money Media Network), shared their insights with Yahoo Sports, discussing top contenders, potential long shots, and offering betting strategies for Saturday’s premier event.
Leading Contenders
Renegade (5-1): “This horse fulfills many criteria, having triumphed in a major preparatory race, the Arkansas Derby. He retains Irad Ortiz Jr. as his jockey, who notably chose to ride him over Commandment after only two races. Nevertheless, Renegade faces two clear disadvantages. Firstly, starting from Post 1 has historically been a significant hurdle, with no winner emerging from that position since 1986. Secondly, he’s dealing with some quarter cracks in his hooves and is wearing specialized shoes. While this didn’t hinder him in the Arkansas Derby, the Derby itself is a different challenge. I’d be concerned about both the rail position and the need for those special shoes to alleviate his medical issues, which trainer Todd Pletcher has openly discussed. Performing optimally in the Derby is essential. He isn’t a speed-focused horse, so the rail might not be fatal, but the question remains how wide he’ll need to run to mount a challenge. There’s much to admire, but not at the current price.” — Gold
“For several weeks, Renegade appeared poised to be a substantial favorite, but his draw of the rail post is, to put it mildly, less than ideal for a 20-horse field. Furthermore, our private workout reports indicate that his morning training sessions leading up to this race haven’t been his best.” — Fornatale
So Happy (6-1): “This particular year, if Bob Baffert were training this horse from California, it would likely be the favorite. Mike Smith, akin to the LeBron James of horse racing, is the most seasoned jockey of all time, making his 29th Derby appearance. Baffert’s presence is much more subdued this year, and this is his key California entry. I anticipate that by Friday or Saturday, you’ll see double-digit odds on this one. Where do you believe the strongest horses are coming from this season? If you rate Southern California as having the best horses, the odds are favorable. A win for Smith at his age would certainly be a memorable story.” — Gold
“I’ve decided to view the form from the Santa Anita Derby with some skepticism. I might be completely mistaken, but although it was officially rated as a fast race, I didn’t perceive the performance as particularly strong, so I intend to avoid the horses originating from California.” — Fornatale
Commandment (7-1): “Despite having won four consecutive races, this horse seems to be somewhat underestimated. His Florida Derby victory was by a narrow nose—not flashy, but effective. His price will be robust since he often appears overshadowed by Renegade or The Puma, ensuring you get good value. A potential unknown is the jockey, who has no prior experience riding this specific horse. While the jockey is familiar with the track, the lack of a prior connection with the horse is a factor. Jockeys sometimes make brilliant decisions, and other times they don’t. Trainer Brad Cox, a Louisville native, possesses intimate knowledge of the track.” — Gold
“Commandment is quite intriguing. He’s certainly among the top contenders and benefited greatly from the post position draw. Curiously, it seems several leading riders had the opportunity to ride him in the Derby but opted for other mounts. I’m not sure how much that truly matters, though. This horse exhibits strong form from those Florida races and appears sufficiently quick. My only minor reservation is that I favor a few other horses with higher odds slightly more.” — Fornatale
LOUISVILLE, KENTUCKY – APRIL 29: The Puma takes to the track during morning workouts ahead of the running of the 152nd Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on April 29, 2026 in Louisville, Kentucky. (Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images)
(Michael Reaves via Getty Images)
The Puma (7-1): “It’s interesting that The Puma held the lead in the Florida Derby but ultimately lost to Commandment—yet he has shown consistent improvement with each outing. He has become a highly talked-about horse, and his performance has benefited as distances have increased. He notably defeated Further Ado, another horse that has garnered attention, which is a significant positive. Typically, horses are expected to win their maiden race before competing against elite company; he accomplished this in a stakes race, which is a major advantage. He possesses considerable talent. However, he did not race as a 2-year-old. Only two horses have won the Derby after skipping their two-year-old season—Justify in 2018 and Mage in 2023. While history is against such horses, he is clearly an ascending talent. We’ll observe how his odds move by Friday.” — Gold
“This horse also comes from the Florida Derby circuit and displays characteristics very similar to Mage, the 2023 winner. He is definitely on my radar, but I’m concerned he might be slightly over-bet, and my latest analysis of advanced data—specifically stride length and cadence—suggests he might not perform at his peak over 10 furlongs. If his price rises to 12-1 or 15-1, he will absolutely be included on my betting slip.” — Fornatale
Top Picks for the Kentucky Derby
“I would back Commandment. I have confidence in horses from Florida, so I’d consider Chief Wallabee or Commandment as top choices, alongside The Puma. I would also include Emerging Market as a potential outsider; he’s coming from Louisiana with trainer Chad Brown, but he’s only had two career races. He’s currently at 15-1 on the morning line, but his actual price will likely be higher.”
“If you’re seeking a long shot to make a late surge, I’ve been looking at Fulleffort, the No. 20 entrant who will start from position 19 due to a scratch. He’s a closing horse, and typically there’s enough early speed in the race to set up a strong finish. If you can get 30-1 odds on him, he’s won 3 out of 7 races—though never on true dirt. The odds will be favorable now. He and Emerging Market are the two longer shots capable of hitting the board. The payout will be excellent given the field of 20 horses. It’s a fantastic race for betting.” — Gold
“We discussed two horses that defeated Chief Wallabee, but I believe there’s a strong argument that Chief Wallabee can reverse that outcome and win. He is so lightly raced that he possesses significant room for improvement. Moreover, Bill Mott is a trainer I implicitly trust to deliver his best performance on the biggest stage. He has performed exceptionally well in workouts, and when examining biometric data, he might hold the most untapped potential of any horse in the field.”
“I am convinced that Japanese horses will win a Kentucky Derby within the next decade, so for a longer shot, I’m quite impressed by what I’ve observed from Danon Bourbon. He demonstrates the appropriate balance of speed and endurance to navigate the Derby well and might exceed expectations based on his odds.” — Fornatale
Peter Fornatale hosts the In the Money Media YouTube channel. To receive additional Kentucky Derby coverage, you can subscribe to their complimentary email list. For a comprehensive analysis of every horse competing in the Derby, follow this link.
