It’s May, yet the 2026 MLB season remains largely unpredictable. All teams in the NL Central are performing well. The Phillies and Mets are accumulating defeats steadily. Surprisingly, the Athletics, lacking a distinct identity, are topping the AL West! Truly remarkable!
However, with warmer temperatures arriving, it’s timely to consider baseball activities associated with colder periods — specifically, the group of free agents for 2027.
This piece marks the initial installment of regular monthly updates. Significant shifts are anticipated between now and the off-season. Injuries, subpar performances, and unforeseen emergences are still on the horizon. Currently, our understanding is limited. Consequently, this roster is expected to undergo considerable modification in the months ahead.
Before proceeding, here are some broad observations concerning this particular group:
1. The pool of available position players might be historically weak.
Since 2015, every offseason has seen at least one batter sign a contract valued at $100 million or more. This streak could easily end this coming winter. While exceptional performances in their final contract year from Jazz Chisholm Jr. or Seiya Suzuki might secure a nine-figure agreement, it’s not assured. The scarcity of high-value players stems from extensions given to Cal Raleigh and Nico Hoerner, which removed these likely $100 million earners from free agency. Additionally, the rookie class of 2020 was notably sparse for reasons unclear.
2. An abundance of pitching talent is available.
Regardless of your specific needs for hurlers, this market offers it: aces for playoff openers, dependable middle-rotation starters, southpaws, right-handers, speed, precision, consistency, potential. Everything is present.
3. Labor negotiations will influence outcomes.
It is almost definite that some form of labor disruption — likely a lockout by the owners — will occur upon the expiration of the current Collective Bargaining Agreement on December 1. During the winter of 2021-22, a surge of free-agent deals preceded the CBA deadline. A similar scenario might unfold, or it might not, but it’s crucial to remember that no player transactions are permitted during a work stoppage. Prepare for a period of inactivity.
With these preliminary points covered, let us proceed to the evaluations.
Important: A number followed by a slash and another number indicates contract duration in years and total financial compensation. For example, Bryce Harper’s 11-year, $330 million agreement would be expressed as “11/330.” All ages mentioned are for the 2027 competitive year.
It’s hard to imagine Skubal losing his premier position. He stands as the planet’s top pitcher, having just secured two consecutive Cy Young awards and aiming for a third. Assuming he avoids injury, he is set to surpass the record for the most lucrative pitching contract: Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s 12-year, $325 million deal. The fact that Skubal is advised by prominent agent Scott Boras will only heighten the anticipation.
During his last appearance, Skubal experienced an unusual instant, flexing his arm and rubbing his elbow post-pitch. His subsequent throw was a precise 97-mph fastball. Although this event didn’t escalate, it served as a stark reminder that any pitcher in the game is constantly a single delivery away from a serious setback. Should Skubal avoid such misfortune, his eventual compensation will be extraordinary.
Peralta can be viewed as the leading contender among the remaining options. Traded from the Brewers to the Mets during the offseason, the spirited Dominican has performed moderately well through his initial seven starts. Nevertheless, Peralta’s statistics are expected to align with his career averages as the season progresses. He concluded last year ranked fifth in NL Cy Young voting and boasts a career strikeout rate exceeding 11 per nine innings. While perhaps not universally considered an ace, Peralta is unquestionably a high-caliber top-of-the-rotation arm and will be compensated accordingly.
3. Seiya Suzuki, Cubs Outfielder, 32
4. Jazz Chisholm Jr., Yankees Second Baseman, 29
As previously noted, these two are the sole position players with a realistic chance at securing a contract exceeding $100 million. Despite his greater age, Suzuki holds an advantage over Chisholm due to his offensive reliability. The Japanese outfielder has accumulated at least 580 plate appearances with an adjusted OPS 30% above the league average in each of the last three campaigns. Suzuki consistently strikes the ball with power, launching it into the air frequently, which signifies a vital and sustainable ability. Furthermore, he possesses better athleticism and outfield capabilities than one might anticipate—even having played center field for Team Japan in the WBC—though these proficiencies will likely diminish over time.
Chisholm, however, could surpass Suzuki with an exceptional season. The amiable Bahamian delivered 30 home runs and 30 stolen bases last year but has had a sluggish beginning to 2026. His walk rate is down, swing speed is slower, and he’s making solid contact less often. Nonetheless, Chisholm possesses sufficient talent to ignite his performance at any moment. His defensive play at second base is outstanding, as is his effectiveness on the basepaths. These qualities provide him with a reasonably high baseline. Should his offensive game recover, he will be a player to watch.
His age is merely a statistic. Gausman originally appeared much lower in these rankings, but he steadily ascended with each revision. Ultimately, his output proved too impressive to disregard. The Blue Jays’ right-hander has logged at least 174 innings in each of the last five years and is on track to repeat that feat. While he doesn’t command the same dominance seen from 2021 to ’23, he served as the premier pitcher for a Blue Jays squad that came very close to winning it all last autumn. Advanced statistics continue to favor him, and his fastball-splitter combination remains among the sport’s elite. He won’t secure a long-term agreement due to his age, but a team (possibly the Blue Jays) will invest substantially for his services over a shorter duration.
This particular scenario is unusual. Three left fielders, all of a comparable age, exhibit very similar offensive metrics over the past three seasons. Happ holds an initial advantage due to his more extensive career history and his merely average defensive capabilities, whereas Arozarena and Ward pose notable liabilities in the outfield.
However, if stolen bases are a priority, Arozarena is your preferred choice. He has amassed 112 stolen bags since 2022 (compared to Happ’s 43 and Ward’s 20). And, predictably, the Cuban-born Mexican personality consistently brings a dramatic flair. Ward has commenced 2026 with an outstanding performance, boasting a batting average above .300 and a league-best 13 doubles. He also holds the lowest swing-and-miss rate outside the strike zone in Major League Baseball.
It’s Tarik Skubal and everybody else when it comes to the 2027 free-agent class.
(Taylor Wilhelm/Yahoo Sports)
King possesses a $28 million player option for the 2027 season, yet our anticipation is that he will return to the free-agent market should he maintain his health. Despite a 2025 season hampered by injuries, he secured a three-year, $75 million contract last offseason. He is expected to exceed that value if he achieves 30 starts. His progress to date has been positive.
Rogers and Bubic can be considered a pair of left-handers, younger than typical for free agency, who have relatively brief professional histories. The Orioles’ southpaw performed as one of baseball’s top pitchers following last year’s All-Star break. Bubic himself earned an All-Star selection. Their notable achievements largely conclude there. Both have shown solid, though not exceptional, performance in 2026 thus far. Depending on the trajectory of this season, this duo could potentially rise as high as third and fourth in the rankings — or fall significantly.
Imanaga recently navigated an unusual period in free agency, characterized by back-and-forth negotiations with the Cubs before ultimately accepting a qualifying offer to rejoin them. His fastball speed this season has returned to the impressive levels seen during his strong 2024 campaign. Should this trend continue, Imanaga is likely to secure a substantial multi-year contract.
Is Arraez now proficient defensively? The 30-year-old Venezuelan accepted a single-year contract with the Giants last winter, partly driven by his desire to return to second base from first base. Several clubs were hesitant about this, but the Giants embraced the trial. This gamble has yielded positive results to date, with Arraez receiving exceptional marks in most defensive evaluations. At the plate, he continues his characteristic approach. Should this defensive enhancement persist, Arraez becomes a distinctly different athlete and should attract greater interest in future free agency.
Lowe exhibits poor defensive skills, yet he boasts significantly greater offensive potential and a more established performance history than Arraez. In his debut season with the Pirates, he has already hit eight home runs. Over the last five years, only Marcus Semien has recorded more homers among second basemen. This achievement is even more notable given Lowe’s numerous missed games over the years due to various injuries. It is possible this injury history may somewhat reduce his appeal in free agency.
Torres was among a record four athletes who chose to accept the qualifying offer this past offseason. For unknown reasons, his exit velocity and bat speed metrics have sharply declined compared to 2025. This has not yet affected his on-field production, but it warrants close observation as the season progresses.
Undoubtedly the premier catcher available, Jeffers has consistently been recognized as one of baseball’s strongest-hitting backstops over recent seasons. His statistics for pitch framing and throwing are quite subpar, likely disqualifying him for clubs that place a high premium on defensive performance behind home plate. With advancing age, Jeffers might be most effective in a combined catcher/designated hitter capacity, allowing him to dedicate more attention to his offensive game. Nonetheless, he hits exceptionally well and has commenced the season brilliantly.
Presented here are two center fielders, intermittently brilliant but highly imperfect. Varsho receives preference due to his fielding prowess, an aspect where Grisham has, surprisingly, deteriorated. The Blue Jays’ center fielder has also reduced his strikeout rate by over 10 percentage points, marking one of the largest declines in the sport this year. The effect this will have on his power output is yet to be determined, but the expectations for Varsho are lower simply because he can display moments of exceptional play in the outfield.
Grisham was another player who accepted the qualifying offer last offseason. He has had a sluggish beginning with the Yankees, although advanced statistics suggest a recovery is probable. Grisham excels at several critical aspects: drawing walks, avoiding pitches outside the zone, making solid contact, and hitting the ball forcefully. These skills establish a respectable baseline for him… as a center fielder. A resurgence in his defensive performance would be highly beneficial; it was indicative that Grisham was hesitant to explore the free-agent market this past offseason.
Let’s refer to this as the ‘Third Tier of Starting Pitchers.’ Mize had commenced his career with his strongest performance yet but was recently placed on the injured list due to a lower-body ailment. This is less alarming than a shoulder or elbow injury and should not significantly impact his free agency. Gallen rejoined Arizona on a single-year contract after briefly testing the free-agent market last winter, but he resembles the pitcher he was in 2025. He is utilizing more sliders, which is leading to more swings outside the zone, but that is largely the extent of his adjustments.
Ray, an All-Star last year, currently presents as a thoroughly dependable mid-rotation arm—the kind you’d confidently start in the third game of a playoff series. Perhaps he will evolve beyond this role as he recovers further from elbow surgery. Holmes’ move from the bullpen to the starting rotation has surpassed nearly all expectations. He holds a $12 million option for the upcoming year, which he will likely decline if his excellent pitching continues. The Mets face challenges, but Holmes is not one of them.
Relief pitchers are inherently unpredictable. Last season, Helsley, Luke Weaver, and Devin Williams experienced significant fluctuations in these rankings, shifting with changing fortunes. However, this particular group constitutes the undisputed elite among prospective free-agent relievers. A case could be made for Bednar to be positioned higher, considering his extensive history and current commanding performance. We will allow more time to pass before a subsequent reevaluation.
The Subsequent 25
-
Adrian Morejon, Padres Relief Pitcher, 28
