LOUISVILLE, Ky. — Renowned owner Mike Repole has frequently encountered misfortune at the Kentucky Derby.
He experienced further ill fortune this past Saturday when his young male horse, Renegade, was assigned the much-feared first starting position for the upcoming 152nd running of the race — a gate from which no Derby champion has emerged since Ferdinand’s victory in 1986.
Regardless of the initial gate assignment, Renegade began as the top betting choice at 4-1 odds. By Tuesday night, these odds had adjusted to 5-1, and have largely remained near that figure subsequently.
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Repole, widely recognized as a beverage mogul for Vitaminwater and Bodyarmor, and currently overseeing the United Football League, holds an 0-for-8 record at the Derby, having twice seen his favored horse withdraw on the race’s eve due to unforeseen health issues. Receiving an inside draw might seem like another setback; however, given Renegade’s characteristic rally-from-behind racing approach, jockey Irad Ortiz will likely be compelled to guide him to the rear of the pack, thereby sidestepping the dense congestion common on the initial bend as riders jockey for favorable positions.
Last month, Renegade established himself as a leading Derby contender with a commanding victory in the Arkansas Derby for Repole and fellow owners Robert and Lawana Low, surging past competitors on the far turn to cross the finish line four lengths ahead. This particular horse presents trainer Todd Pletcher, who has entered an unparalleled 65 horses in the Derby, an opportunity to secure his third win.
For his part, Repole did not appear overly troubled by Renegade’s unfavorable post assignment.
Other participants experienced more fortunate outcomes during Saturday’s draw for starting positions.
Further Ado, who decisively triumphed in the Blue Grass Stakes by eleven and a half lengths, is set to start from the eighteenth post with 54-year-old jockey John Velazquez, a three-time winner of this event. Spendthrift Farm owns Further Ado, having initially anticipated competing with Ted Noffey, last year’s champion two-year-old, whose Derby campaign was cut short this spring due to an injury.
Following these two, the trio that finished highest in the Florida Derby — Commandment, The Puma, and Chief Wallabee — are also expected to attract considerable wagering interest. Commandment will commence from the sixth gate, The Puma secured the ninth slot, while Chief Wallabee was assigned the twelfth position.
Chief Wallabee receives training from Bill Mott, who claimed victory in this contest last year with Sovereignty and in 2019 with Country House. His son, Riley Mott, is participating in his first Derby as a trainer with a pair of entries: Albus, the Wood Memorial champion, and Incredibolt, the Virginia Derby victor.
“He has previous experience here, having been alongside me, and is familiar with my thoughts and all potential occurrences,” stated Bill Mott. “He possesses some background in this environment, despite this being his initial personal entry.”
Bob Baffert is fielding two horses, spearheaded by Potente, acquired for $2.4 million as a yearling and who placed second in the Santa Anita Derby on April 4. Potente was allocated the fourteenth starting gate.
Baffert aims to officially secure an unprecedented seventh Derby triumph — a feat he achieved in 2021 with Medina Spirit, only for the win to be disqualified following a positive test for betamethasone, which Baffert asserted was administered for a dermal ailment but is prohibited in a horse’s system on competition day.
That specific event resulted in Churchill Downs imposing a two-year track ban on Baffert, which subsequently extended to three years when Baffert declined to acknowledge wrongdoing. Eventually, a mutual understanding was reached for Baffert’s return last year with Citizen Bull, who concluded the race in fifteenth place.
Given the twenty-horse capacity of the starting gate, qualification for the Kentucky Derby is governed by a framework allowing horses to gather points in any of fifty designated preparatory races globally, dating back to the previous autumn.
Trainer Steve Asmussen pulled Chip Honcho out on Saturday morning, redirecting him towards the Preakness, thereby creating an opening for Baffert’s second entry, Litmus Test, who was assigned the fourth gate position.
Great White, Ocelli, and Robusta have filled the places of three horses withdrawn from the lineup. Such occurrences are common during Derby week, notably in 2022 when Rich Strike gained entry at the final hour and proceeded to win the race as one of its biggest longshots, with odds of 80-1.
Initial Kentucky Derby Betting Lines, Posts 1 through 20
(Wagering figures updated as of Friday’s start)
Kentucky Derby Wagering Prospects, Post Positions 1-20
1. Renegade 5-1
2. Albus 50-1
3. Intrepido 55-1
4. Litmus Test 34-1
5. Right to Party 26-1 (Scratch)
6. Commandment 7-1
7. Danon Bourbon 14-1
8. So Happy 6-1
9. The Puma 8-1
10. Wonder Dean 20-1
11. Incredibolt 27-1
12. Chief Wallabee 9-1
13. Silent Tactic 38-1 (Scratch)
14. Potente 23-1
15. Emerging Market 11-1
16. Pavlovian 52-1
17. Six Speed 40-1
18. Further Ado 7-1
19. Golden Tempo 36-1
20. Fulleffort 19-1 (Scratch)
21. Great White 29-1
22. Ocelli 50-1
23. Robusta 50-1
