The San Antonio Spurs, seeded second in the Western Conference, are set to face the Minnesota Timberwolves, seeded sixth, in the 2026 NBA playoffs’ second round. This marks the first playoff encounter between these clubs since 2001, a series where Tim Duncan, David Robinson, and their teammates dominated Kevin Garnett’s less formidable roster, securing a 3-1 victory in the initial round.
(Indeed: San Antonio and Minnesota have not met in the playoffs since the opening round consisted of only five matches. Should you recall this fact, a gentle reminder to also arrange your colonoscopy screening. Given our advanced years, vigilance is key.)
Game Timeline | Betting Chances | Spurs Analysis | Wolves Analysis
Direct Confrontation | Key Duel | Primary Concern | Series Forecast
Playoff Series Calendar
Match 1: Mon., May 4 in San Antonio (broadcast details pending)
Match 2: Wed., May 6 in San Antonio (pending)
Match 3: Fri., May 8 in Minnesota (pending)
Match 4: Sun., May 10 in Minnesota (pending)
*Match 5: Tue., May 12 in San Antonio (pending)
*Match 6: Fri., May 15 in Minnesota (pending)
*Match 7: Sun., May 17 in San Antonio (pending)
*if required
Likelihood of Series Outcome
San Antonio Spurs (-2000)
Minnesota Timberwolves (+950)
Insights into the Spurs
It is clear that, despite their youthful roster, they are not simply content with their current position.
San Antonio managed their tasks in Round 1 with aggression, effectiveness, and confidence. The league’s third-ranked regular-season defense restricted the Trail Blazers to under 100 points in three of five contests, confining Portland to a 40% field goal success rate and 30% from beyond the arc. Emerging backcourt talents Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper appeared remarkably at ease in their initial playoff experience, particularly when collectively contributing 60 points away from home in a Game 3 victory. Experienced point guard De’Aaron Fox justified his value, pacing the Spurs in scoring during Games 4 and 5 to eliminate the Blazers.
Portland’s only triumph occurred after Victor Wembanyama departed Game 2 prematurely due to a concerning fall that placed him under the NBA’s concussion guidelines. However, upon his return for Game 4, San Antonio’s aura of near-invincibility also re-emerged; the Spurs surpassed the Blazers’ score by 45 points across the 112 minutes the unanimous Defensive Player of the Year participated in the series. This equates to almost 20 points per 100 possessions—a level of command consistent with his overall seasonal influence for a Spurs squad now advancing beyond the first round for the first time since 2017.
Insights into the Timberwolves
Their resilience is undeniable.
Following a somewhat inconsistent regular season, which prompted questions about whether a team that reached the conference finals twice had become complacent or bored with the 82-game lead-up to the thrilling postseason, the Wolves rebounded from a difficult Game 1. They emphatically demonstrated that, two years later, they remained a formidable challenge for the Nuggets. Minnesota overcame a 19-point deficit on the road to secure Game 2 and seize home-court advantage, then decisively defeated Nikola Jokić and his team in Games 3 and 4 by a total of 33 points, pushing favored Denver to the verge of elimination—a feat achieved despite losing All-NBA cornerstone Anthony Edwards and starting shooting guard Donte DiVincenzo in the first half of Game 4.
Jaden McDaniels publicly challenged the defense of every single Nugget and then delivered on his words, averaging 17.8 points per game with 49.4% shooting efficiency throughout the series. When Edwards and DiVincenzo were sidelined, trade-deadline acquisition Ayo Dosunmu stepped up, delivering a phenomenal 43-point performance in Game 4, earning him local hero status in the Twin Cities. And when Dosunmu, too, became unavailable due to right calf soreness for Game 6, leaving the Wolves without their top three guards in a series-clinching game, it was McDaniels (with 32 points and 10 rebounds in 45 minutes) and the less-utilized sophomore wing Terrence Shannon Jr. (with 24 points and six rebounds) who joined Julius Randle and Naz Reid in carrying sufficient offensive load to complete the task.
The offense remained effective because the defense never wavered. Rudy Gobert’s defensive standing arguably needed no reinforcement, but his recent performance against Jokić—limiting him to 42% shooting when directly guarding him, and with Denver experiencing a league-worst offensive efficiency during the Jokić vs. Gobert minutes—should quell any future doubts about his capabilities. McDaniels effectively neutralized Jamal Murray in the series, contributing to the All-Star point guard’s restriction to 34% shooting over the concluding four games.
Denver’s offense, which led the NBA in efficiency during the regular season, managed nearly 14 fewer points per 100 possessions against this relentless Minnesota defense; three of the Nuggets’ seven lowest offensive outputs of the season occurred in the previous week.
For several years, this has defined Minnesota: a robust, persistent squad eager to confront any adversary, even a three-time MVP, and thoroughly overwhelm them. Facing a completely healthy, rested, and fully functional Spurs team presents a particularly formidable challenge, especially considering the multitude of injury concerns the Wolves are currently managing. However, remember the adage about wounded creatures; the Spurs would be ill-advised to underestimate Chris Finch’s team, despite its apparent disadvantages.
Direct Confrontation Record
Minnesota secured the regular season series, 2-1.
The Wolves claimed the initial game in November, winning 125-112, propelled by an effective 32 points from Edwards; a 22-point, 12-assist double-double from Randle, and a phenomenal 46% team shooting from three-point range in what was San Antonio’s least effective defensive showing of the season:
Minnesota barely surpassed the Spurs in their subsequent encounter, with Edwards drawing Wembanyama on a switch before maneuvering around a screen for a difficult runner that emerged as the decisive basket in a thrilling 104-103 contest:
“I questioned, ‘Should I take the shot? Should I drive past him?’” Edwards shared with journalists post-game. “I was perplexed. I’ve never been so uncertain. Honestly, I thought, ‘Maybe I should pass it to Ju[lius Randle]. I’m unsure what to do in this moment. […] I believe he anticipated a jump shot, definitely. He likely would’ve rejected that, so I opted to drive past him.”
San Antonio retaliated six evenings later, securing a narrow 126-123 triumph despite Edwards’ career-best 55 points, primarily due to Wembanyama’s 39 points in 30 minutes, Fox’s 25 points and 12 assists, and 20 points contributed off the bench by Sixth Man of the Year recipient Keldon Johnson:
Several factors should be noted. Wembanyama and Castle were absent for the Wolves’ first victory. Devin Vassell missed both January matchups. Furthermore, considerable changes have occurred in the four and a half months since the teams last competed—most significantly, DiVincenzo (who recorded the second-highest plus-minus among all Timberwolves against San Antonio during the regular season) will not participate in this matchup, and Edwards (who averaged 36.7 points per game on 58.3% shooting against the Spurs this season) might also be absent.
Crucial Confrontation
Minnesota’s elevated playmakers versus San Antonio’s formidable defense
Firstly, the Minnesota offense registered 114.3 points per 100 possessions against San Antonio over 58 minutes when Wembanyama was on the court during the regular season—a statistic quite impressive, considering the broader league averaged only 103.6 points per 100 possessions during Wemby’s playing time! However, on the other hand, 47 of those 58 minutes featured Edwards directing the Wolves’ attack, and all 58 minutes included at least one of Edwards or DiVincenzo on the floor… rendering this data sample somewhat more challenging to interpret given the current circumstances for Coach Finch’s squad.
Subsequent to the injuries to Edwards and DiVincenzo, Minnesota’s offensive production for the remainder of Round 1 was roughly league-average, but this was achieved against a considerably less stringent defense than the one San Antonio deploys. Without their primary backcourt—at least for the initial stages of the series, with Edwards’ availability serving as (spoiler alert) The Central Question of this matchup—the Wolves must seek alternative sources of shot creation. Spurs head coach Mitch Johnson will, therefore, need to determine how to utilize his strong contingent of formidable, long-limbed defenders in an effort to thwart that quest.
If Dosunmu’s calf ailment resolves, he will be tasked with resuming lead ball-handling duties against players such as All-Defensive Team candidate Castle—a significantly more rigorous examination than anything Denver presented him. Should Ayo not be prepared, and with Edwards sidelined, would Johnson assign his second-year defensive specialist to Randle, aiming to disrupt and vex the three-time All-Star by having a smaller, quicker agitator closely guard him and pressure his dribble?
Perhaps not, if Finch opts to retain the dynamic Shannon in the starting lineup following his impressive 24-point breakout performance in Game 6:
Can Shannon maintain his assertive north-south drives against the Spurs’ perimeter size and reach? Can McDaniels continue to absorb more isolation and shot-creation opportunities while serving as the primary defender on Fox—and, when Finch seeks to alter tactics, taking turns guarding Wembanyama with Gobert providing assistance from behind, as he did in San Antonio’s January win? To what extent can Minnesota depend on seasoned veteran Mike Conley, who was mostly out of the rotation until injuries accumulated but contributed a valuable 27 minutes in the Game 6 clincher, when facing a Spurs backcourt filled with larger, stronger guards capable of targeting him defensively?
If Finch finds that prospect unappealing, fearing the introduction of a smaller defensive liability into his system, might he instead pivot in the opposite direction, seeking more opportunities to field supersized lineups featuring all three of Gobert, Randle, and Reid? These combinations saw only 56 minutes together during the regular season but achieved a plus-15 rating in 17 minutes in Game 6 against Denver. Such configurations could allow the Wolves to impose a physical disadvantage upfront on a Spurs team that typically surrounds Wembanyama with smaller power forwards Julian Champagnie and Harrison Barnes—a potential avenue for offensive rebounding, points in the paint, and drawing fouls to enter the bonus and disrupt the game flow.
It remains uncertain whether any of these strategies will consistently provide a dependable means of scoring against a Spurs defense that has been elite all season in restricting attempts at the rim, contesting shots from beyond the arc, preventing fast-break opportunities, and dominating the boards. However, some combination of these—unexpected contributions from lesser-known players, a strategic surprise from Finch, or a dominant performance from a supersized lineup—will be necessary to challenge the favorites and create an opportunity for the Wolves to snatch an early game, prolong the series, and potentially allow their game-changing superstar to return and alter the dynamics.
Regarding that point …
Decisive Inquiry
Will Anthony Edwards be a significant factor in this series?
While it may seem obvious, Minnesota’s prospects of achieving an upset are considerably boosted if Edwards—who ranked third in NBA scoring during the regular season, becoming one of only ten guards ever to average at least 28 points per game with a true shooting percentage (accounting for 2-point, 3-point, and free-throw accuracy) exceeding 60%—is able to participate. However, as things stand, that remains a substantial uncertainty.
Right knee inflammation kept Edwards out for 11 of the Wolves’ last 14 regular-season matches. He made his return for the playoffs but was visibly not performing at his usual All-NBA level, shooting 39% from the field and 25% from three-point range in the initial three games against Denver. Subsequently, late in the first half of Game 4, he landed awkwardly after jumping to defend the basket, resulting in a hyperextension and bone bruise in his left knee—an injury categorized as a “week-to-week” recovery.
Therefore: How many weeks might pass before Edwards becomes available?
“There exists a possibility that Edwards could return at some juncture during this series,” as reported by Jon Krawczynski of The Athletic. “However, his presence is not anticipated for the commencement of it.”
Game 3 on Friday would signify 13 days since his injury. If two weeks suffice for Minnesota’s medical staff to restore Edwards—historically a rapid recuperator—not only to active play but also with the necessary explosiveness to rise for shots and drive to the basket with his characteristic intensity, it could significantly enhance Minnesota’s underdog chances against the heavily favored San Antonio. If his recovery requires more time than that, however… there simply might not be sufficient weeks remaining for him to influence whether the Spurs progress to the Western Conference finals.
Forecast: Spurs prevail in six
Were I certain that Dosunmu was fully healthy and that Ant would rejoin the series halfway through, I would seriously consider Minnesota as the victor; a team does not secure as many playoff series as the Wolves have in recent years, through such varied methods, without commanding a degree of admiration. Nevertheless, I question whether sheer resilience and suffocating defense will be sufficient to overcome an adversary that combines those attributes with roster depth, young talent, and an otherworldly player. The Wolves will put up a commendable fight, yet the Spurs will advance to the Western Conference finals.
