AMELIA ISLAND, Fla. — Come January, the key figures in university sports had reached a consensus on a 16-team postseason tournament — with the notable exception of the Big Ten conference.
Within a span of under half a year, these influential entities have now coalesced around an alternative structure, a 24-team arrangement — yet the SEC stands as the sole dissenter.
However, a significant obstacle remains: for any alteration to be implemented, both the SEC and Big Ten conferences require unanimous consent on the chosen framework.
The remaining FBS conferences ceded control over the playoff’s future structure to these two powerful leagues through a pact established in March 2024, aiming to satisfy their demands (and prevent them from establishing their independent championship series). For approximately the past twelve months, these two prominent conferences have diverged on numerous subjects, particularly regarding the expansion of the postseason tournament.
So, what’s the implication now that the other primary stakeholders — the ACC, Big 12, and Notre Dame — have endorsed a 24-team field? It signifies that the College Football Playoff’s media strategists are currently assessing the potential surge in earnings from broadcasting partners that would accompany the inclusion of 12 more teams, 12 extra matches, and an additional playoff stage.
This investigative effort began a fortnight prior and is projected to conclude in June during a face-to-face gathering of CFP leadership in Denver. A core aspect of this determination is whether an expanded 24-team bracket can sufficiently boost income to offset the projected $250 million deficit resulting from the discontinuation of the FBS conference title matchups.
Greg Sankey and the SEC conference are currently the sole impediment to enlarging the postseason tournament to 24 contenders.
(IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect / REUTERS)
Based on projections from the conferences, the SEC’s championship event alone garners up to $100 million, while the Big Ten’s equivalent brings in approximately $75 million, and the ACC and Big 12’s respective contests each contribute at least $50 million.
The question arises: do an extra dozen matchups — predominantly initial-round contests featuring teams with three or four defeats — truly possess such significant value?
During his press briefing on Wednesday, following the yearly ACC spring gatherings, conference commissioner Jim Phillips confirmed what had circulated for several weeks: his athletic directors and coaching staff advocate for a 24-team playoff. The reasoning is dual-pronged. Firstly, the bracket ought to be enlarged to incorporate borderline teams that merit a shot at national glory, and secondly, participation opportunities must grow to align with the amplified financial commitments universities are making to their football teams and facilities.
“If you’re omitting teams capable of vying for a national title from the playoff, your current count is inadequate,” Phillips stated. “We experienced this firsthand, enduring hardship with Florida State when the competition comprised only four teams.”
A disclosure made by Phillips — also previously noted in a Yahoo Sports article last month — is that ESPN, the exclusive media collaborator for the CFP, opposes any enlargement exceeding 16 teams.
This public announcement from an active conference commissioner was, in some respects, quite startling.
The extent of ESPN’s impact and involvement in the postseason tournament is immense. It serves as the primary financial backer. The broadcasting giant remits $1.3 billion each year under a pact to broadcast the playoff until 2031 (despite ESPN subsequently licensing almost half of the remaining matches to TNT, a move likely not favored by the CFP’s governing body).
According to informed sources, during the tender process for the recent six-year television deal two years prior, ESPN emerged as the leading contender, with no other bids coming particularly close.
Indeed, a component of this arrangement grants ESPN — which also serves as the SEC’s exclusive media affiliate — proprietary rights over the playoff, provided the participant count does not surpass 14, potentially explaining why the media conglomerate is disinclined towards a substantially larger postseason format.
Conversely, Fox Sports, helmed by CEO Eric Shanks, has openly championed a 24-team structure. Fox is the principal media collaborator for the Big Ten conference.
However, this drive for playoff changes extends beyond just media executives and television networks.
Attendees this week underscored a broad requirement for increased participation, especially considering the escalating valuations of football team rosters, which now frequently exceed $30 million. Furthermore, a majority of coaches support abolishing conference championship matchups, which have diminished in importance within the 12-team postseason framework (as these title games have essentially transformed into merely another demanding conference fixture preceding an arduous playoff journey).
At a combined assembly of athletic directors and head football coaches held on Wednesday, Phillips prompted each institutional delegate to declare their stance — 16 or 24? While numerous individuals present characterized the group’s sentiment as a “consensus” and “unanimity,” Miami’s coach, Mario Cristobal, offered a dissenting perspective in a recent podcast interview: “I do not endorse the 24-team concept. It’s excessive. What’s the point of a regular season then? And I am absolutely against automatic qualifications.”
Expanding the participant pool by such a significant number of teams carries potential repercussions — possibly unfavorable outcomes. Under the latest proposal being debated, a 24-team bracket would be established using the CFP selection committee’s assessments (along with a single automatic entry for a Group of Six team if it falls outside the rankings). The leading eight seeds would advance directly to a second round, which, similar to the initial round, would take place at the higher-seeded team’s home venue. Seeds ranging from No. 9 to No. 24 would compete against each other during the inaugural weekend.
A key ramification involves the destiny of those bowl games not linked to the CFP’s rotating schedule of six major bowls designated for quarterfinals and semifinals.
What fate awaits events such as the Gator Bowl, the Pop-Tarts Bowl, Alamo, Houston, and others?
“We must grasp the full implications of this,” Phillips remarked when directly questioned about the effect on bowl games. “No decision has been finalized on this matter. We requested the CFP, in conjunction with their television consultant, to evaluate both a 16- and 24-team scenario. We currently lack complete data. The findings might even suggest, ‘Perhaps the 16-team option appears more favorable!'”
The scheduling presents complexities as well, as does the dedicated four-hour slot occupied by the Army-Navy game. That particular contest would almost certainly need to be rescheduled earlier in the season if a 24-team playoff were adopted.
Naturally, none of these adjustments can proceed without the endorsement of the SEC. The league’s coaches, athletic directors, and presidents are slated to convene for their yearly conference sessions from May 26-28 close to Destin, Florida. The Big Ten’s meetings are scheduled for the coming week near Los Angeles, with the Big 12 being the final group to assemble later this month.
This week, within the ACC’s domain, the conference publicly declared its backing for a 24-team format. Pete Bevacqua, Notre Dame’s athletic director and a participant on the CFP governance committee, also expressed support, as did the Big 12 conference.
The decision now rests with the SEC.
