As is customary, Jack Nicklaus’ Muirfield Village is presenting an exceptionally rigorous examination for the PGA Tour’s elite competitors at the 2026 Memorial Tournament. A firm, swift golf course complemented by dense rough continues to be the blueprint for challenging the globe’s finest players, and with the addition of robust afternoon wind gusts, Friday proved to be an exceptionally demanding day in Dublin, Ohio.
Among the participants encountering difficulties with this arduous task is Scottie Scheffler, the two-time reigning champion. The world’s top-ranked player commenced his week with a score of 1-over 73 on Thursday, which included an outburst directed at caddie Ted Scott following his ball landing in the water on the par-3 16th, resulting in a double bogey.
His performance showed minimal improvement at the outset of his second round. Scheffler failed to record a single birdie on the front nine, notable among which was a par on the par-5 5th that involved a mis-hit from the bunker after reaching the greenside in two strokes.
A sequence of three consecutive bogeys from holes 8 to 10 as he navigated the turn further intensified Scheffler’s pressure, suddenly placing him at 4 over and precisely on the cut line with eight holes remaining. True to his reputation, Scheffler managed to regain his composure and orchestrated a late surge, carding three birdies across his final five holes to not only escape the cut line but also secure a position within the top 20 heading into the weekend at 1 over.
The primary concern for Scheffler lies in his iron play, where he has been among the least effective in the field this week, despite making gains around the greens and with his putting. Scheffler holds the 59th position (out of 72 players) in strokes gained approach, relinquishing over two strokes to the field, and the precision in distance control that defined his dominance over the past two years at Muirfield Village has been notably absent so far this week.
Just last year, Scheffler overcame a three-shot deficit at the start of the weekend to ultimately triumph by four strokes, but he will require an even more significant weekend charge to achieve the first three-peat at the Memorial since Tiger Woods accomplished it in 2001. Scheffler currently trails J.T. Poston by 10 shots, whose 65 on Friday was truly remarkable considering the challenging conditions. Scheffler will need to establish a more consistent standard with his irons, a level yet to be observed this week, if he intends to become a genuine contender.
Scheffler is far from the only elite player who has struggled significantly with Muirfield Village during the initial two days of competition. Rory McIlroy also finds himself in the T19 group at 1 over, following a 74 recorded under the most adverse afternoon conditions. He and Justin Thomas (+5) exchanged a somewhat sardonic embrace on the 18th green after enduring an extremely tough day of golf. Similar to Thomas, Ludvig Åberg just made the cut at 5 over after a Friday 78, as Nicklaus’ masterful design truly demonstrated its difficulty in the second round.
The Leader
1. J.T. Poston (-9)
Poston accrued more than nine strokes against the field with his 7-under 65 on Friday, a performance that propelled him into the sole lead going into the weekend. Poston has long been recognized as one of the PGA Tour’s premier putters, but on Friday, he combined this putting prowess with an outstanding ball-striking display to record the day’s best score by a four-stroke margin. As evidenced last year by Ben Griffin and Nick Taylor, who reached 7 under after 36 holes only to falter and be surpassed by Scheffler, sustaining such a high level of play at Muirfield Village across 72 holes is seldom straightforward. The positive news for Poston is that he has established a considerable buffer from much of the field, with only four other players currently within six shots of him as Saturday begins.
Weekend Contenders
2. Ryan Gerard (-8)
3. Sam Burns (-6)
4. Tommy Fleetwood (-4)
5. Eric Cole (-3)
T6. Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, Wyndham Clark (-2)
T9. Alex Fitzpatrick, Aaron Rai, Shane Lowry (-1)
T19. Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and eight others (+1)
Gerard held the top position for a significant portion of the morning before Poston eventually overtook him, but the 26-year-old is building upon the momentum from his T10 finish at Colonial last week, positioning himself for the most significant victory of his career. Sam Burns has posted rounds of 69 on both days thus far, and if he were able to replicate that score for all four days, he would be a strong favorite to claim the title on Sunday, even starting the weekend with a three-shot deficit.
The performances of these three players—Poston, Gerard, and Burns—will likely determine the number of competitors who genuinely have a shot at winning on Sunday. Any one of them, particularly Poston and Gerard, has the capability to establish an unreachable standard for others, given the inherent difficulty of Muirfield Village. However, should they regress—a frequent occurrence at the Memorial—then a substantial number of players will find themselves with a viable opportunity.
Just five strokes separate the large contingent at T19 from Tommy Fleetwood, who is in fourth place at 4 under. Such shifts on the leaderboard are certainly plausible, and if the leading trio begins to recede, we could witness an exceptionally thrilling weekend. Cole suffered a heartbreaking loss last week in a playoff against Russell Henley, but, like Alex Fitzpatrick, he is capitalizing on his opportunity to compete in a signature event while in excellent form.
Patrick Cantlay’s strong play at Muirfield Village comes as no surprise, given his status as a two-time champion here, and his understanding that consistent performance and error avoidance are paramount at the Memorial. Similarly, Xander Schauffele is a theoretically excellent fit for Muirfield Village and continues his steady play this season as he seeks his first win in over a year. Wyndham Clark, who secured a victory two weeks ago with an exceptionally low score at TPC Craig Ranch, is once again demonstrating strong play on a vastly different style of golf course, which underscores the current strength of his game.
Notable Players Who Missed the Cut
- Jordan Spieth (+6)
- Ben Griffin (+7)
- Min Woo Lee (+8)
- Akshay Bhatia (+9)
- Rickie Fowler (+17)
The top 50 players and those tied for 50th advanced to the weekend, which this week meant 19 players were eliminated early from the 72-man field. Spieth began strongly with a 71 on Thursday but saw everything unravel in Friday’s second round, posting a 79. Griffin, last year’s runner-up, also experienced a difficult opening two days and will not participate in the weekend rounds, while Fowler endured two forgettable days, with his best score being a 79.
Updated Memorial Tournament Betting Odds and Selections
- J.T. Poston (2-1)
- Ryan Gerard (3-1)
- Sam Burns (5-1)
- Tommy Fleetwood (19/2)
- Xander Schauffele (18-1)
- Scottie Scheffler (20-1)
- Patrick Cantlay (22-1)
While Poston or Gerard could very well dominate and win this event, I find it difficult to place a wager at such low odds with so much golf still to be played on a challenging course. Scheffler possessing the sixth-best odds despite a 10-shot deficit is rather amusing, as sportsbooks clearly have no interest in facilitating a substantial payout for anyone who backs him to ignite a hot streak over the weekend. I would prefer to back Schauffele in a similar odds range, as he is performing somewhat better and is three shots closer to the lead. Fleetwood’s ball-striking does present a slight concern for me; his Thursday 67 seemed somewhat misleading after he managed to scramble for pars 11 times, but he certainly remains a contender for his first victory of the year if he can stabilize his game.
