Although Atlanta boasts a lineup arguably best equipped to challenge Los Angeles in the National League, numerous analysts believed the team required an additional top-tier starter for their postseason push. Commentators extensively criticized general manager Alex Anthopoulos for failing to fill this gap before the trade deadline, particularly since the franchise’s only significant transaction involved acquiring veteran pitcher Tyler Mahle from San Francisco.
However, transitioning from a struggling NL West squad to a postseason contender seems to have revitalized Mahle. Following a stellar performance in his first game with Atlanta, he takes the mound once more this evening for the final matchup of the series against the visiting New York Mets, with action starting at 7:15 PM ET.
Atlanta enters the game as -170 money-line favorites according to DraftKings Sportsbook, with the total run line set at 8.5. For those looking to engage in MLB betting using the best sports betting apps, the SportsLine Projection Model offers data-driven recommendations and expert insights for matchups like this Mets vs. Braves clash.
It is crucial for Atlanta to capitalize on the recent struggles of Los Angeles, aiming to surpass them in the standings to secure home-field advantage for a potential NLDS or NLCS showdown. Currently, Milwaukee leads the National League standings, holding a two-game cushion over both Atlanta and Los Angeles. Ending up with the lowest record among the three division leaders carries a heavy penalty, forcing that team to play in the Wild-Card Round while the top two champions enjoy a direct pass to the Division Series.
Seeding odds provided by DraftKings place Los Angeles as the -150 frontrunner for the top seed, while Atlanta is listed at +600 for the number one spot, +270 for the second seed, and -125 to land the third seed. Meanwhile, the SportsLine Projection Model projects Atlanta to finish with the third-highest win total in the NL at 94.4, trailing Milwaukee’s projected 98.5 and Los Angeles’s 96.9.
Mets vs. Braves MLB Same-Game Parlay
- Atlanta to win on the money line
- Fewer than 1.5 runs scored in the opening inning
- Alternative total runs Under 11.5
FanDuel SGP Odds: +136
Although Anthopoulos pursued major targets prior to the deadline, he reportedly fell far short of matching the package Los Angeles presented to Detroit for Tarik Skubal. Had they acquired him to team up with Chris Sale, I am confident Atlanta could have defeated the Dodgers. At this point, I have my doubts, unless Mahle manages to replicate Rick Sutcliffe’s historic 1984 post-deadline run with Chicago.
The 31-year-old pitcher posted a 3-9 record with a 5.13 ERA and surrendered 14 home runs over 18 starts during his time in San Francisco, though his performances had begun to improve before a brilliant Braves debut last Friday at Yankee Stadium. In that outing, he delivered six scoreless frames and matched his season-best with nine strikeouts. Though he deserved a victory, the relief staff surrendered a 2-0 advantage in the final frame.
With a stellar 2.73 ERA across his previous five outings, Mahle explained his strategy against New York, utilizing a combination of his four-seam fastball, splitter, and cutter: “I executed my pitches well. There was good life on my fastball, and my splitters worked effectively. Joining a first-place club that plays at such a high level is incredibly exciting.”
In an April 3 matchup against New York while still with San Francisco, Mahle surrendered five runs and eight hits—including two home runs—across five frames in a defeat. Both Marcus Semien and Francisco Alvarez homered against him in that contest. For tonight’s game, the projection system estimates Mahle will go 5.4 innings, register 5.5 strikeouts, give up 5.2 hits, and allow 2.3 earned runs. He is currently priced at +186 to secure a win.
New York is finishing up their season while evaluating which prospects could contribute to their future plans. This group includes rookie left-hander Zac Thornton (3-2, 2.52 ERA), who will be making his eighth start in the majors. The 24-year-old prospect, rated seventh overall in the franchise’s farm system, recently pitched five scoreless innings to earn a win in Pittsburgh. After entering the starting rotation just ahead of the All-Star break, Thornton has logged a 1.86 ERA, highlighted by three shutouts in his five appearances.
On July 27, he recorded a quality start at home against Atlanta, yielding three runs across 6.1 frames in a winning effort. Atlanta’s Matt Olson has gone 0-for-2 with one walk lifetime against Thornton, though he hit his 35th home run of the year during Tuesday’s game to share the major league lead with Philadelphia’s Kyle Schwarber and Houston’s Yordan Alvarez. Olson carries +283 odds to hit a home run tonight, whereas Thornton has given up just three homers all year. The analytical model projects Thornton to pitch 5.7 innings, compile 4.8 strikeouts, allow 4.4 hits, and give up 2.1 earned runs.
As New York concludes a nine-game road trip, this matchup presents a classic scenario for a potential drop in performance. I have found solid success throughout this season backing this specific three-leg parlay structure: a victory for the home side, fewer than 1.5 runs in the opening frame, and an elevated alternative under for the total runs. The simulator projects a 4.6-4.1 victory for Atlanta, which would fit perfectly. Find additional analysis and selections in the daily SportsLine newsletter.
