Welsh Sides Unfazed by All Blacks: Tandy’s Men Ready for Battle

As Michael Holding began his lengthy run-up, following a period of shorter runs due to injury, West Indies wicketkeeper Jeffrey Dujon jokingly speculated that the legendary pacer had forgotten something in the dressing area.

Facing the All Blacks?

You get the picture.

For Wales, especially, it constantly feels as though the Kiwis are arriving with full force.

Some have raised doubts regarding New Zealand’s form against Scotland, highlighting that their defense was not as impenetrable as expected, with 36 missed tackles noted.

However, once they settled into the game, the All Blacks displayed an intensity reminiscent of a tax collector rising on the wrong side of the bed. They dashed Murrayfield’s aspirations for a historic first win over them by transforming a 24-21 half-time lead into an impressive 43-21 full-time result. A blend of ingenuity, fundamental skills, and a steadfast belief that all would end favorably for them marked their performance. And indeed, it did, as anticipated.

Not exactly an optimal situation for a Wales squad that finds itself firmly positioned in the third tier of Test rugby, should the divisions be categorized into groups of four.

A friend who is currently attending the Rugby League World Cup in Australia messaged a WhatsApp group I’m part of to mention he had booked lodging run by nuns. As expected, messages from back home quickly followed, requesting prayers for Wales this weekend, and one cheeky contributor even dared to ask for a miracle. Predicted scores were averaging around a 50-point disparity favoring New Zealand.

For Wales, the haunting memory against New Zealand has persisted ever since Bleddyn Williams and the 1953 team triumphed over Bob Stuart’s All Blacks, gaining a 3-1 series lead. However, a staggering 34 consecutive victories for the Kiwis have dulled what was once a fierce rivalry, now resembling something that would interest anti-bullying advocates.

And the bookmakers aren’t expecting this pattern to cease anytime soon, with odds heavily favoring the tourists at 1/80 to win on the weekend. For those unfamiliar with betting, that translates into a roughly inconceivable chance of success.

Wales must address pressing issues following their shaky victory over Japan. Can Steve Tandy mend a lineout that was systematically dismantled by Warren Dearns, Harry Hockings, and Jack Cornelsen just days earlier? Is it feasible to generate some momentum from the locks and props? What steps can be taken to enhance decision-making and execution at half-back? Can Tandy inspire his bench forwards to make a positive impression without contradicting any known rugby norms?

Tandy must make improvements to Welsh forward ball-carrying. Jac Morgan, Aaron Wainwright, and Lake performed admirably against Japan. The remaining starters? Not so much.

Resolving the lineout issues will be imperative, as the Brave Blossoms exploited Wales’ set-piece, intercepting six Welsh throws and leaving the hosts with a 69 percent success rate on their own ball.

While it didn’t seem like the visitors were merely up against immobile targets, Dewi Lake, Ben Carter, Daf Jenkins, and the Welsh lifters appeared to struggle in aligning on the crucial aspect of securing their own possession. In essence, it was quite chaotic.

One might wonder if Taine Plumtree, a recognized lineout specialist, along with the 6ft 8in Adam Beard, could have enhanced the situation had they been selected for the bench.

Additionally, Tandy must work on Welsh forward ball-carrying. Jac Morgan, Aaron Wainwright, and Lake earned commendation for their efforts against Japan, while the rest of the starting forwards? Not quite as impactful. Collectively, they managed a mere five metres with the ball.

Regarding those expected to energize Wales from the bench, the five forward replacements mustered only eight carries, with only Ryan Elias contributing significantly with seven metres, while the others collectively added just two metres.

Wales secured merely 38 percent possession; their retention was lacking, and they were compelled to make 227 tackles. Any Welsh back arriving expecting top-tier service was likely disappointed, with no one stepping forward to offer assistance, as would one expect from a top establishment.

Instead, those positioned behind the home scrum had to cope.

This scenario created significant challenges for the half-backs, but they, too, could have fared better. Sam Costelow might have awakened on Sunday, contemplating different choices he could have made, with the ball being kicked away from promising attacking scenarios at least twice.

Will either Costelow or Dan Edwards establish themselves as the clear front-runner for the No. 10 position before the season concludes? Or might the talented young Scarlet, Carwyn Leggatt-Jones, make substantial strides and claim the crown held by numerous legends in previous years?

There are positive developments for Tandy. Blair Murray, Louis Rees-Zammit, and Josh Adams formed a dynamic back three against Japan, with Murray and Rees-Zammit overcoming 23 defenders between them.

Or might the Wales selectors opt for a (not especially strategic) method of rotating players – ‘it’s the 45th Saturday of the year, so it must be Dan’s turn’?

Let’s wish it won’t be the latter.

Some believe right now, prior to the All Blacks encounter, that the fly-half role isn’t the primary concern anyway. “After viewing both Wales and New Zealand perform over the weekend, I doubt it truly matters who is selected at 10,” a participant in a BBC online discussion shared their thoughts concerning prospective fly-halves for Wales this Saturday. “Sam? Dan? The woman managing the post office? The outcome will likely remain unchanged.”

Currently, there’s no overflowing optimism in Wales as they prepare for the Kiwis’ visit.

Nonetheless, there are some positive aspects for Tandy to hold on to. Blair Murray, Louis Rees-Zammit, and Josh Adams created a competent back three during the match against Japan, with Murray and Rees-Zammit overcoming 23 defenders combined.

“I’m simply playing with joy, exuding confidence, and constantly believing I can surpass defenders, and defensively, I feel solid too,” Rees-Zammit remarked afterward. Supporters from Wales will hope such commendable confidence remains intact during the contest with New Zealand.

There were also commendable aspects of Eddie James’ performance against Japan, despite a late offload leading to a Japanese try, thus complicating the match’s final moments for Wales.

Nonetheless, James concluded with a significantly positive contribution through his strength and influence in the midfield. Wales has been eager to find a center to foundationalize their three-quarter line; in James, they have discovered one.

Wales will require that same resilience in their match against New Zealand, as the All Blacks reached a 58 percent efficiency in the red zone against Scotland. Just to clarify, that’s extraordinarily effective.

Others who managed to leave the field with their reputations intact included Morgan and Wainwright. A mention should also go to Nicky Smith, Lake, and Adams, each of whom secured crucial turnovers mere meters from Wales’ line. Had Japan capitalized on even one of those opportunities, the hosts likely wouldn’t have had a victory to celebrate.

Wales will have to exhibit even more resilience against New Zealand, given the All Blacks’ impressive red-zone efficiency against Scotland. To clarify, that’s extremely effective. Scotland operated at a mere 30 percent in their critical zone, while Wales managed to convert four of their ten entries into Japan’s 22 – not a disastrous showing, but elite teams typically excel beyond that.

With the Nations Championship pool game on the horizon, expectations shouldn’t weigh too heavily on Tandy’s squad. Teams superior to this Welsh side have encountered daunting challenges against the All Blacks.

If Dewi Lake and his teammates can prevent this Kiwi side from gaining an easy win, it would certainly be a positive outcome.

However, accomplishing that challenge won’t be straightforward.