Could a female horse emerge victorious in this Saturday’s $1 million King’s Plate Stakes at Woodbine? The prospect is highly plausible.
Run over a 1 1/4-mile distance on the synthetic Tapeta Footings track at Woodbine, this historic event is open exclusively to Canadian-bred three-year-old Thoroughbreds, serving as the nation’s counterpart to the Kentucky Derby. However, while fillies have claimed the Kentucky Derby just three times, they have captured the King’s Plate on 39 occasions, with six of those triumphs occurring since 2011.
#1 Luster (priced at even-money on the morning line) has a strong chance to join this elite club of female champions. Boasting four victories from five career outings, she is conditioned by Josie Carroll, a three-time King’s Plate-winning trainer who made history in 2006 as the first female trainer to win the race, doing so with Edenwold.
This summer at Woodbine, Luster has been in exceptional form. She captured the 1 1/16-mile Grade 3 Selene Stakes by executing a powerful late run from just behind the leaders. Following that, in the 1 1/8-mile Woodbine Oaks Presented by Stella Artois, she tracked the early pace closely before seizing command and drawing clear effortlessly for a 5 1/2-length victory.
Showcasing an effective blend of early position and late acceleration, Luster is well-positioned to secure an ideal run in the race. Her prospects are further boosted by the presence of Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez in the irons, who previously rode the filly Wonder Gadot to victory in the 2018 renewal.
Should Luster go off at 1-1 and cross the wire first, win bettors will receive a 100% return on their investment. While that represents solid value for such a dominant favorite, players looking for a more lucrative payout might opt to construct a trifecta, which demands predicting the exact top three order of finish.
Leading candidates to secure a spot in the top three feature the top two finishers from the Grade 3 Marine Stakes, #9 Brachetto (5-1) and #7 Magical Factor (10-1), along with Woodbine Oaks runner-up #5 Dixie Law (10-1), and Plate Trial Stakes victor #8 Highwaytothemoon (6-1). However, high-odds contenders like #10 Very Special (30-1) and #11 Bond Market (30-1) warrant serious consideration as live longshots.
Very Special enters this contest off a third-place showing in a 1 1/8-mile maiden special weight local event. He finished just 1 1/2 lengths behind Coburg, a rival who subsequently cruised to an impressive 7 1/4-length victory in a 1 1/4-mile allowance optional claiming race.
Bond Market made his career debut in a one-mile turf maiden special weight at Woodbine, closing from midpack to secure a 1 1/2-length win. He stands to improve significantly as he transitions to the synthetic track and stretches out to the 1 1/4-mile distance for his second career appearance.
Betting Approach with a $10 Budget
$10 to win on #1 Luster
Betting window instructions: Woodbine, Race 10, $10 to win on 1
Betting Approach with a $30 Budget
$1 trifecta: 1 with 5,8,9 with 5,7,8,9,10,11 (total cost: $15)
Betting window instructions: Woodbine, Race 10, $1 trifecta 1 with 5,8,9 with 5,7,8,9,10,11
$1 trifecta: 1 with 5,7,8,9,10,11 with 5,8,9 (total cost: $15)
Betting window instructions: Woodbine, Race 10, $1 trifecta 1 with 5,7,8,9,10,11 with 5,8,9
Best of luck, and have a great time watching the race!
