Our top wagers are undoubtedly trending in a positive trajectory. Following a shaky opening, we secured victories on three of our five selections across both of the previous two slates, though one specific pick stands out above the rest—and I strongly encourage you to follow along with it.
A week ago, I recommended backing Jacoby Brissett to throw at least 2 passing TDs along with at least 1 interception, and he delivered perfectly: ending up with three scores and a single pick. That hit landed us a nice payout at +230 odds. Now, allow me to reiterate a crucial point:
Throughout 7 of his previous 11 starting appearances, Jacoby Brissett has recorded 2 or more touchdown passes alongside 1 or more interceptions. Remarkably, this prop is still available at substantial plus-money value!
Appreciate you taking the time to read this.
Additionally, we hit on Houston beating the spread versus Tennessee, as well as Davante Adams crossing the goal line as an anytime TD scorer. Our losses came on Chicago, who suffered a heavy defeat to Green Bay, and a Drake Maye ground-yards prop, which was derailed primarily by the lopsided scoreline.
Taking everything into account, it proved to be a solid slate overall. Time to keep building momentum.
As per usual, all featured wagering lines come directly from DraftKings.
Patriots (-7.5) to cover against the Jets (-110)
This spread caught me off guard. While New York enters this matchup following a victory over Cleveland, that contest was a sloppy 17-12 rainy game where the Jets mustered a paltry 4.2 yards per snap and essentially secured the win due to abysmal play from Deshaun Watson.
Drake Maye experienced some growing pains early on this season, but he is currently operating at a high level. Across his last two outings, Maye paces the entire league in touchdown throws and passer rating while ranking third in yards per pass attempt. Furthermore, he has been brought down behind the line just twice recently after enduring nine sacks between Weeks 1 and 3. The explosive chunk plays have returned in full force, which is essential to Maye performing at his ceiling.
New England’s defensive unit has turned the corner as well, performing admirably even without Christian Gonzalez. His expected return should bolster a group that currently sits fifth in total yards surrendered per contest. On top of that, Zak Kuhr is scheming up crafty blitz packages, which bodes ill for Geno Smith, who has suffered the third-highest sack total in the league this season.
Texans Moneyline vs. Jaguars (+120)
I am genuinely concerned about the matchup nightmare Houston’s defensive front poses for a Jacksonville offensive line that was already struggling and now has to navigate the absence of Anton Harrison. Jalen Carter relentlessly overwhelmed the interior of Jacksonville’s line last game, and now they must contend with edge rushers Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter collapsing the pocket from the outside.
In addition, C.J. Stroud has exhibited outstanding play throughout the campaign. Across the three contests featuring Nico Collins on the field, Stroud has connected on 70.9% of his throws, accumulated 8.6 yards per attempt, and recorded an EPA per dropback of 0.24. Extrapolated across full-season metrics, those marks would place him second, fourth, and sixth in the NFL, respectively. To top it off, he has maintained a clean sheet with zero interceptions thrown all year.
Lastly, whereas Jacksonville loses arguably their top blocking asset, Houston welcomes back key offensive lineman Braden Smith. Marvin Harrison Jr. is also slated to log his inaugural appearance for Houston. I foresee a dominant outing for Collins and the Texans as they secure an important victory.
Juwan Johnson 40+ Receiving Yards (-134)
New York is coming off a performance where they yielded 60 yards on four receptions to Chig Okonkwo. Up next, they square off against another pass-catching tight end in Juwan Johnson. Prior to running into Minnesota’s elite defensive unit, Johnson was remarkably steady this season, logging a minimum of three receptions and 50 receiving yards in each outing. He was held to a quiet 16 yards last game, but New York’s defense is nowhere near Minnesota’s caliber. Expect Johnson to bounce back nicely against a linebacking group that has frequently faltered in pass coverage.
Tucker Kraft 40+ Receiving Yards (-166)
Why not target another tight end prop? Dallas pairs a high-octane attack with a vulnerable defensive unit, creating an ideal environment for a high-scoring game that should heavily involve Tucker Kraft. While a brief adjustment period was expected for the talented tight end returning from an ACL tear, he has collected 11 receptions for 104 yards over his last two games. Next up is a Dallas defense that has consistently failed to suppress opposing offenses.
Having a healthy Joey Porter Jr. back ought to assist in containing wideouts Christian Watson and Matthew Golden, but containing tight ends remains a glaring flaw for Dallas. Through five weeks of action, the Cowboys surrender 9.0 yards per attempt when targets go to tight ends—the fifth-worst mark in the league. This issue exists despite not facing many premier receiving threats at the position; the top target they encountered was likely Isaiah Likely in Week 1, who shredded them for eight receptions, 78 yards, and a pair of touchdowns.
D’Andre Swift AND Drake London Anytime TD Scorer (+212)
With Kyle Monangai anticipated to sit out once more for Chicago, backing D’Andre Swift to score a touchdown (-175) holds plenty of merit on its own. He reached the end zone last week against Green Bay, and although he recorded only a single touch following halftime—and head coach Ben Johnson noted a desire to avoid overworking his backs—a game script dominated by a heavy scoreboard deficit played a major role. Had the contest remained competitive, Swift almost certainly would have logged more second-half touches. The return of Caleb Williams should give this offensive unit a major lift, but even if he remains sidelined, I anticipate Swift finding paydirt. He has racked up four touchdowns this season while getting tackled at the 1-yard line a league-leading seven times.
Drake London is primed for positive touchdown regression. His synergy with Michael Penix Jr. under center has historically yielded massive production, a trend continuing this season with 21 catches for 408 yards over Penix’s last three starts. With Penix expected to start on Sunday, conditions are set for London to catch a touchdown pass. His current totals of 27 grabs and 488 receiving yards represent the highest marks in the league for any player who has yet to score a touchdown. Positive regression is inevitable, starting against a vulnerable Chicago defensive backfield.
Overall season tally: 12-13
Week 6
Cumulative record: 49-30
Previous week: 8-7
