With the initial madness of free agency now behind us, we can evaluate the projected lineup for the Colorado Avalanche as they prepare for the 2026-27 campaign. Though analysts use various metrics to dissect a roster, shooting percentage remains one of the most revealing indicators of future offensive output. Public opinion of a skater’s season is frequently dictated by this basic formula—goals divided by shots on target. Examining the data reveals a tight connection between a player’s perceived success or failure and their shooting efficiency during any given season.
Crucially, shooting efficiency is mostly a product of individual skill rather than sheer opportunity. When a player earns a larger role and sees their ice time rise, their shot volume typically increases as well; this yields more goals while maintaining a stable shooting percentage, since the underlying conversion rate remains constant. Fluctuations occur throughout any career, but we must identify when a skater is benefiting from temporary hot streaks that inflate their numbers. An elevated shooting percentage isn’t entirely random—team chemistry and personal confidence certainly play key roles, just as a slump can drag numbers down—but these fluctuations are standard cyclical patterns in hockey that eventually correct themselves.
Although skaters refine their skills early in their careers, their shooting efficiency generally stabilizes once they establish themselves in the NHL, making it vital to compare their current rates against their historical baselines. Across the league, the average conversion rate typically hovers between 10% and 12%, though this spans from elite marksmen consistently converting at 15% or higher to bottom-six grinders finishing around 5%. Consequently, shooting efficiency should be judged against a skater’s personal history rather than league-wide or team standards—a distinction where metrics like PDO often miss the mark. While typical annual fluctuations of two to three percent are common, any massive shift that alters the narrative around a player usually points to an unsustainable hot streak or an unlucky cold spell.
By analyzing shooting percentages and how they shaped individual stat lines last year, we can set realistic expectations for the upcoming season. Applying this framework, let’s examine several Avalanche players whose goal-scoring trends bear watching in the year ahead.
Players primed for a scoring drop
Parker Kelly
Serving as the ultimate example of Colorado’s inflated shooting luck during the 2025-26 season, depth forward Parker Kelly’s 21-goal campaign was highly entertaining but is highly unlikely to be repeated. Scoring that frequently on a mere 104 shots pushed Kelly’s conversion rate to an unsustainable 20.2%, far exceeding his career average of 8.5% before last season. This spike wasn’t driven by a change in utilization, as his ice time and shot volume closely mirrored his previous numbers in Denver. While Kelly has developed as a skater, he cannot sustain such blistering efficiency and is bound to regress toward the eight-goal baseline he established before his sudden outburst. If Colorado can find another bottom-six forward to have an unexpectedly massive year, they can offset his drop-off, but assuming Kelly will repeat anything close to a 20-goal performance is simply setting up for disappointment.
Brock Nelson
Another skater likely to see their numbers drop already started showing signs of a slowdown late last year and into the postseason. Brock Nelson rode a massive shooting percentage ahead of the Olympic break, but finished the year at 17.7% after scoring a mere four goals (only one of which came at even strength) following the intermission, followed by just a pair of empty-net tallies during the playoffs.
The middle-six center still wrapped up the campaign with a remarkable 27.7% shooting efficiency on the man advantage, converting 10 of his 36 power-play shots before being demoted from the first unit amid the team’s power-play struggles. With Nazem Kadri’s return at the trade deadline to occupy the left-shot role on the right flank, Nelson will face an uphill battle to replicate his previous numbers simply because his power-play deployment will be significantly reduced.
To his credit, Nelson possesses genuine scoring touch, as evidenced by his 14.5% conversion rate over 13 seasons in the league, meaning he should remain a viable even-strength threat. However, his shot generation has dipped since joining Colorado, and without the benefit of top-unit power-play time, flirting with the 30-goal plateau once more looks highly improbable.
Martin Nečas
Martin Nečas serves as an ideal case study for how increased opportunity impacts scoring, having spent the majority of the season riding shotgun with Nathan MacKinnon. However, evaluating the Czech winger requires separating his even-strength numbers from his power-play production. During his debut full season in Denver, Nečas converted at an overall clip of 18.4%—well above his 13.1% career baseline—while his 5-on-5 efficiency soared to a career-best 18.8%, up from his prior 8.8% average. This spike allowed him to net 25 even-strength goals, yet it wasn’t a result of generating more shots. Surprisingly, Nečas registered just 204 shots on goal, which fell short of the 240 and 231 shots he recorded in his final seasons with Carolina, even though he averaged four extra minutes of ice time per game with the Avs. This regression began showing its face in the postseason, where he managed just a single even-strength goal on 17 shots (5.9%) and went scoreless on 13 power-play attempts.
That said, the power play remains a vital component of Nečas’ overall impact, and his talent with the extra attacker provides optimism that his point totals can stay elevated even if his 5-on-5 numbers normalize. He matched his career best with nine power-play tallies, fueled by increased power-play minutes and a personal-high 60 shots on the man advantage, while shooting only 15%—a figure actually below his historical 20% power-play average. This is where increased opportunity legitimately aids his production, and if Colorado continues to deploy him as a primary shooting option from the left circle, the skilled winger should be able to offset some of his expected even-strength decline.
Nathan MacKinnon
Nathan MacKinnon’s status as a generational talent guarantees he will remain near the top of the league’s scoring charts if he stays healthy. The question is not his total points, but rather his goal-scoring ceiling. He captured his inaugural Rocket Richard Trophy in 2025-26 while shooting 15.1%, a career-best mark for a player who typically relies on high shot volume and holds a 10.9% historical average. Along with leading the league in goals, he established a new personal record with 53 goals on 350 shots, aided by a league-high eight empty-netters. While another 50-goal season is possible—given his 51-goal output in 2023-24—that prior milestone required a massive 405 shots on net. A minor drop in his scoring efficiency is far more realistic for the coming year.
Players poised for a scoring rebound
The list of potential bounce-back candidates in Colorado would be longer, but management traded away several prime candidates during the offseason. This includes Ross Colton, whose 5.9% shooting rate was starting to recover during the postseason, and Val Nichushkin, who was also set for a rebound from his 10.1% mark. Instead, Nashville and Columbus are likely to reap the rewards of their statistical corrections.
Cale Makar
The elite defenseman endured an unusual campaign. Despite racking up 72 points and earning a runner-up finish for the Norris Trophy, Colorado’s struggling power play prevented Cale Makar from reaching the offensive heights of his 30-goal, 92-point showing in 2024-25. His 10.1% shooting percentage closely mirrored his 10.3% career norm, but his shot volume dropped to a three-season low of 199, leaving him with 20 goals. While Makar matched his previous year’s total of 13 even-strength goals, his power-play output plummeted from 12 tallies to only four. This decline stemmed from a low 7.4% shooting rate with the extra man, combined with the fact that just a third of his 154 power-play attempts actually found the target. Historically, Makar hit the net on nearly half of his attempts. If the Avalanche can help him find better lanes on the power play, his numbers should soar back to their usual elite standards.
Jaden Schwartz
While Colorado’s veteran forwards in their mid-30s offer limited hope for a major statistical surge, newcomer Jaden Schwartz is a compelling wild card. The winger’s 13.4% shooting during his final season with the Kraken was slightly above his 12.2% career average, though that campaign was largely viewed as underwhelming since he finished with only 26 points in 50 matches. Durability has often hampered Schwartz, but during his healthy 2024-25 campaign, he enjoyed his most productive season of the decade with 26 goals and 49 points. Interestingly, he posted the exact same 13.4% shooting efficiency that year, but achieved his higher goal total by generating a career-best 196 shots on goal. This highlights how maintaining high shot generation can drive raw goal totals even when efficiency remains constant. Schwartz fired over eight shots per 60 minutes during that high-scoring year, compared to just 6.1 shots per 60 last season. If he can boost his shot volume while staying out of the training room, Schwartz has the potential to match his decade-best numbers and help fill the offensive void left by Colorado’s offseason departures.
