Welcome to another season of our running back analysis for fantasy football. While running backs are often considered the cornerstone of fantasy rosters, forecasting their output before the season starts remains highly challenging. It typically requires a few games for fantasy managers to truly understand how different coaching staffs plan to distribute touches from week to week.
To address this, we aim to extract meaningful insights from backfields that carried significant question marks entering the year. These observations should help guide your roster choices as the season progresses. Naturally, these dynamics warrant close observation, and we should brace for some fluctuating usage patterns before roles truly solidify.
The opening week highlighted several players who were heavily undervalued during draft season but delivered outstanding performances. In the breakdown below, we examine the distribution of touches in crucial backfields and offer our strategic analysis.
|
Player |
Carries |
Receptions |
Total Yards |
Touchdowns |
FPPTs |
|
David Montgomery |
20 |
3 |
79 |
3 |
27.4 |
|
Woody Marks |
8 |
1 |
34 |
0 |
6.06 |
Houston acquired Montgomery via trade to serve as their primary runner, and he fulfilled that expectation perfectly in the season opener. Throughout fantasy drafts, Monty was frequently selected as a mid-tier RB2 or even a depth RB3. Yet, once the Week 1 matchups wrap up, he is poised to rank among the top five running backs in fantasy scoring.
The general expectation was that Montgomery would command first- and second-down carries, while Marks would primarily handle receiving duties. However, Montgomery defied this by hauling in three receptions for 19 yards and a touchdown. Even though the veteran claimed the vast majority of opportunities and produced at a high level, Marks remained highly involved, with Montgomery holding only a narrow 22-17 snap advantage during the first half.
There are several key takeaways regarding Monty’s outlook. First, he has established himself as a rock-solid RB2 with realistic RB1 potential, reminiscent of Javonte Williams’ performance with Dallas a year ago. Furthermore, the Texans are expected to enjoy highly favorable game flows that support a heavy running attack. Crucially, Houston’s upcoming month-long schedule looks incredibly soft for Montgomery, featuring matchups against Cincinnati, Indianapolis, Dallas, and Tennessee. While acquiring him now might require paying a premium, his outlook for the remainder of the season is exceptionally promising, making him a potential league-winning asset for 2026.
|
Player |
Carries |
Receptions |
Total Yards |
Touchdowns |
FPPTs |
|
Chuba Hubbard |
10 |
3 |
87 |
2 |
22.2 |
|
Jonathon Brooks |
4 |
1 |
62 |
0 |
6.7 |
The exact layout of the Carolina backfield was a major point of discussion throughout the offseason. Over the previous year, Hubbard missed substantial time due to injury, allowing Rico Dowdle to step up, while Brooks was sidelined recovering from a major knee operation. Although both ball-carriers faced injury concerns heading into 2026, both received clearance to play in Week 1. Despite head coach Dave Canales forecasting a committee approach, Sunday’s contest against the Bears revealed a definitive primary option.
Hubbard assumed that lead role, quickly cementing his status as another draft-day bargain. The veteran spearheaded the ground attack and dominated the first-half playing time with a 25 to 6 snap advantage over Brooks. Hubbard concluded the high-scoring affair with 22.2 fantasy points, securing a spot among the elite RB1s for the week. On the other hand, Brooks made the most of his limited five opportunities, flashing his trademark big-play ability with a dynamic 48-yard reception.
While the weekend’s matchup was a high-scoring shootout with minimal defensive resistance, Carolina’s upcoming matchups against Atlanta and Cleveland present different challenges. Hubbard currently projects as a dependable RB2 or high-floor RB3. Meanwhile, Brooks remains a high-variance flex option who offers intriguing upside, particularly in PPR leagues.
|
Player |
Carries |
Receptions |
Total Yards |
Touchdowns |
FPPTs |
|
Jaylen Warren |
10 |
5 |
73 |
0 |
7.8 |
|
Rico Dowdle |
8 |
2 |
21 |
0 |
3.1 |
The Steelers managed to secure a gritty, unappealing victory at home against Cooper Rush and the Falcons. Given pre-game expectations of a shared workload between Warren and Dowdle, the division of labor was predictable. Neither runner produced particularly impressive statistics, with Dowdle finding almost no running room. Even when Warren coughed up a fumble in the first half, opening the door for Dowdle, head coach Mike McCarthy chose to stick primarily with Warren.
The 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers struggled to look effective, which may limit the ceiling of this entire offensive unit. Even so, his tendency to rely on quick checkdowns could provide a steady stream of targets for his running backs. Nevertheless, this tandem promises to be a headache for fantasy managers as long as both Warren and Dowdle remain active. Warren offers a safer floor in PPR leagues, but both remain volatile, touchdown-reliant flex options with occasional boom potential.
|
Player |
Carries |
Receptions |
Total Yards |
Touchdowns |
FPPTs |
|
Bhayshul Tuten |
15 |
1 |
88 |
0 |
9.3 |
|
Chris Rodriguez Jr. |
6 |
0 |
23 |
0 |
2.3 |
|
Ameer Abdullah |
4 |
1 |
32 |
0 |
3.7 |
Following the departure of Travis Etienne Jr., Tuten was poised to assume the mantle of the primary ball-carrier. The addition of Rodriguez, however, raised concerns about a potential committee to open the year. That split did not materialize in Week 1, although the game flow was heavily skewed by Jacksonville easily handling a struggling Cleveland team.
Even though Tuten proved far more efficient and out-touched Rodriguez 16 to 6, both players saw an identical 16 snaps in the first half of what quickly became a blowout. Abdullah also earned some playing time, slightly outperforming Rodriguez, while LeQuint Allen Jr. remained on the sidelines without recording a touch.
Several factors deserve consideration moving forward. Jacksonville’s upcoming schedule is highly challenging, featuring games at Denver, versus New England, at Cincinnati, against Philadelphia, and versus Houston. Consequently, positive game scripts are unlikely to be a regular occurrence during this stretch. Additionally, head coach Liam Coen utilized his deep receiving corps extensively, targeting three tight ends and connecting with five different wideouts, which suggests target volume for Tuten and Rodriguez could remain limited.
Currently, Tuten profiles as a viable RB3 or flex option, whereas Rodriguez remains a risky, touchdown-dependent play given the demanding matchups ahead.
|
Player |
Carries |
Receptions |
Total Yards |
Touchdowns |
FPPTs |
|
Bucky Irving |
8 |
7 |
93 |
1 |
16.8 |
|
Kenny Gainwell |
5 |
1 |
18 |
0 |
2.3 |
Completing our look at undervalued runners, Irving demonstrated exactly why fantasy managers made a mistake by ignoring him in drafts. After a injury-plagued 2025 campaign, Bucky operated as the unquestioned lead back against Cincinnati. Although he lacked explosive, long gains, his sheer volume of work was impressive, out-touching free-agent acquisition Gainwell 15 to 6.
Particularly encouraging was Irving’s significant integration into the passing attack. With Tampa Bay playing from behind for the majority of the contest, Irving was the one running routes and taking snaps instead of Gainwell. This usage indicates that the Buccaneers firmly view Irving as their true lead back rather than a 1A to Gainwell’s 1B. He remains a trustworthy RB2 option with another favorable matchup on deck against Cleveland.
|
Player |
Carries |
Receptions |
Total Yards |
Touchdowns |
FPPTs |
|
Travis Etienne Jr. |
9 |
7 |
78 |
0 |
11.3 |
|
Kendre Miller |
9 |
0 |
30 |
1 |
9 |
One would assume that signing a running back to a four-year, $48 million contract would protect them from losing substantial work to Kendre Miller. Yet, the season opener saw Etienne locked in what resembled a backfield share. Although not a completely even split, the distribution of touches was certainly unexpected. New Orleans mounted a late comeback before falling 31-30 in overtime to Detroit, a game script that salvaged what otherwise would have been a highly disappointing debut for Etienne.
Adding to the concern, third-stringer CJ Donaldson registered three touches, and even rookie Barion Brown received a rushing attempt. Still, Etienne’s performance was respectable given the offensive line’s struggles and quarterback Tyler Shough’s slow start before finding his rhythm in the second half. However, Miller’s red-zone touchdown is a worrying sign; if Etienne cannot create big plays, his touchdown upside may be severely capped.
His involvement as a receiver ensures a stable baseline, particularly while Alvin Kamara remains sidelined, though New Orleans must navigate a brutal stretch ahead. The Saints are scheduled to play Baltimore, Atlanta, Minnesota, and Pittsburgh before their Week 8 bye. On the bright side, the post-bye schedule is filled with excellent matchups. Avoid panicking on Etienne, as more productive performances are on the horizon. At present, treat him as an RB2 or RB3 with a reliable floor.