Because of an injury sustained by three-time AL MVP Aaron Judge, I haven’t been featuring the stellar New York Yankees outfielder on my betting slips since his sidelining on May 31. On a positive note, recent updates indicate he has been greenlit for “light activity” and is optimistic about returning to the field this year. However, his return to the active roster might be delayed until September, given that Yankees manager Aaron Boone mentioned he would require an extensive ramp-up period equivalent to an entire spring training. Due to his prolonged absence, the league might fall short of producing a 50-home run batter in 2026, a drought we haven’t experienced since the 2021 season.
Unfortunately, there are no matchups scheduled for this evening in the batter-friendly stadiums of Cincinnati, Denver, or Sacramento. Keep in mind that precipitation might affect the Yankees’ home matchup against the Braves, as well as the Reds-Nationals game. Aside from those, conditions like wind and weather shouldn’t play a massive role in our MLB prop betting decisions elsewhere.
For anyone looking to dive into MLB betting, especially when it comes to wagering on home runs, my Friday selections are worth reviewing. Across the previous four baseball seasons, my MLB recommendations have generated a profit of $1,681. My complete card is available at SportsLine, as well as inside the private SportsLine Discord channel, which hosts a vibrant group of betting fans and analysts.
For my previous Friday card, I backed Mookie Betts of the Dodgers and the Giants’ Willy Adames to hit home runs. Unfortunately, Betts recorded just a single during an unexpected lopsided defeat at home against Boston, while Adames went hitless in three at-bats as San Francisco suffered a shutout in San Diego. Though it wasn’t my strongest showing, I have still successfully hit a home run prop in four of the last six weeks.
As a rule of thumb, whenever I select a home run prop, I find the Over 1.5 total bases option for that same player to be an even more appealing wager.
Best MLB Home Run Bets for Friday, August 7
Astros Second Baseman Jose Altuve (+500, FanDuel)
A handful of recently traded starting pitchers are scheduled to make their debuts with their new clubs this Friday, notably in the matchup between Houston and San Diego at 9:40 p.m. ET, where both teams are fighting for postseason spots. Playing in San Diego means weather won’t be an issue—though there is a slight breeze blowing outward, which is always favorable for home run wagers.
With the wild card being San Diego’s sole path to October baseball, their front office made another aggressive move before Monday’s deadline, landing two highly capable starters: left-hander Robbie Ray from San Francisco and right-hander Casey Mize from Detroit. You have to admire Padres GM AJ Preller’s aggressive approach; he refuses to wait around for minor league talent to mature. Instead, he routinely trades prospects for immediate upgrades. While this depletion of the farm system could catch up with them down the road—perhaps as early as 2027 since Ray and Mize are both in contract years—it shows they are fully committed to winning immediately.
Ray, a past AL Cy Young recipient, takes the mound on Friday amidst an impressive campaign, posting a 10-4 record alongside a 3.08 ERA, highlighted by a dominant 2.00 ERA over five outings in July where he yielded only a single home run across 27 frames. Given that Petco Park heavily favors pitchers, why target this matchup? For starters, Ray could experience some adjustment issues adapting to a new environment and roster. Furthermore, he has already surrendered 15 home runs over the course of the season.
In addition, Houston’s star second baseman Jose Altuve, a former league MVP and lock for the Hall of Fame, has historically destroyed Ray’s pitching, posting a massive 1.740 OPS across 20 plate appearances with two home runs, three doubles, and a triple. Despite his diminutive 5-foot-6 stature, Altuve has consistently possessed solid power, collecting 13 home runs so far this season, including a blast in the Astros’ most recent contest on Wednesday.
It is also worth keeping an eye on frontrunner for the 2026 AL MVP Yordan Alvarez at +255, who is 2-for-4 with a long ball in his career matchups against Ray. With 35 home runs leading the majors, he is primed for another round-tripper after last clearing the fences on July 28.
Royals Shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. (+345, DraftKings)
At 8:10 p.m. ET, the Chicago Cubs kick off their series in Kansas City under sweltering conditions at Kauffman Stadium, where a gentle breeze will be blowing out toward left field. Sticking with the theme of debut performances from traded arms, right-hander Kevin Gausman will start for Chicago after arriving from Toronto on Monday in exchange for a pair of minor leaguers.
Speaking as a supporter of the Cubs, I was pleased with this acquisition. Gausman has established himself as a premier American League starting pitcher since landing a lucrative deal with the Blue Jays prior to 2022, and he carries a wealth of postseason pedigree. Indeed, Toronto likely wouldn’t have reached the brink of a World Series title in 2025 without his contributions. Over 14 career playoff appearances, he maintains a solid 3.83 ERA.
My hope is that his current 5-10 record and 4.38 ERA are merely an anomaly for the 35-year-old veteran. While his pitch speed remains intact, preventing the long ball has been a struggle, resulting in 21 home runs allowed. Transitioning from a last-place division squad to a postseason contender might provide the spark Gausman needs. This will be his first time facing the Royals this season.
Though my last selection from the Kansas City roster—catcher Salvador Perez—came through with a home run, I don’t intend to frequently back players from their historically quiet offense. Nevertheless, All-Star shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. stands out as one of the finest pure hitters in the American League. Witt has logged 13 home runs this season, though he has only hit one since June wrapped up—a blast on July 9 against the Mets—partly due to a stint on the injured list. He boasts a strong track record against Gausman, batting 5-for-15 with a pair of home runs and a double.
Another player to consider is outfielder Starling Marte; despite only having one home run on the year and not starting every match, he should find himself in the starting lineup tonight. His career numbers against Gausman are stellar, going 8-for-15 with a home run and three doubles. The perfect scenario would see both of these players leave the yard, while my Cubs still walk away with a victory.
