The pairings for the league’s conference semifinals are now finalized. In the Eastern Conference, we have Cleveland versus Detroit and Philadelphia against New York. Out West, it’s Los Angeles facing Oklahoma City, and Minnesota battling San Antonio. Which contenders will secure a spot in the NBA’s ultimate four? And what stands out most from the postseason action up to this point? We’ll analyze it here.
Sixers-Knicks: Who wins?
Tom Haberstroh: New York in seven games. I’m highly anticipating the individual battle between Joel Embiid and Karl-Anthony Towns. My belief is that Embiid will outperform Towns during their shared time on the court. However, my main concern for Philadelphia is Embiid’s potential availability. Given that the 76ers’ star center has sat out games in four of his team’s previous five postseason appearances, I have low confidence in his ability to remain healthy throughout this extended series.
Kelly Iko: The Knicks should win in seven. New York discovered a successful formula in the opening round, featuring Towns as a primary offensive focal point. Utilizing one of the sport’s most adaptable big men proved effective — the Knicks hold a 13-2 record since February 1st when Towns’ usage rate reaches at least 25%, according to data from Cleaning the Glass. Philadelphia has several options for guarding Towns, but I anticipate a rotation involving Paul George, Kelly Oubre, and Embiid. Naturally, New York’s strategy for containing Embiid will be the decisive factor in this contest. While a fully fit Embiid represents the East’s most impactful player, the Knicks’ deep roster and robust play style ought to give them the edge.
Ben Rohrbach: New York will prevail in six games. The individual pairings promise to be captivating — Embiid’s dominance over Towns; Towns’s ability to stretch the floor against Embiid; occasional dual-center lineups from New York; and abundant strategic adjustments throughout. However, the 76ers relied on a mere six players during their surprising victory over Boston, with Embiid being one of them. While Tyrese Maxey and Jalen Brunson could exchange scoring blows, a substantial burden rests on Embiid’s shoulders, and I question his endurance to sustain such a demanding role deep into the postseason.
Dan Titus: New York in seven. While Philadelphia secured an impressive win against Boston, Embiid’s physical condition remains uncertain, which gives the Knicks’ deeper roster a significant edge. The head-to-head battles between Embiid and KAT, and Brunson and Maxey, are bound to be thrilling. However, the Sixers are missing a genuine inside force to dominate rebounding and prevent offensive putbacks. Paul George and VJ Edgecombe have the potential to influence the outcome, but the Knicks’ stronger defensive unit and adaptability should prove decisive, particularly if Embiid is not at full strength.
Wolves-Spurs: Who wins?
Titus: San Antonio in five games. The Timberwolves displayed resilience by overcoming Denver despite missing Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo. However, with Ayo Dosunmu’s probable absence to begin the series, their roster depth is severely depleted. Who will guard Wemby effectively? Even more crucially, who on Minnesota can match the scoring output of the Spurs’ reserves, spearheaded by Dylan Harper? If Minnesota hadn’t lost three vital offensive players, this series would be more competitive, but their current personnel shortcomings are too great.
Ben Rohrbach: San Antonio in six. The Timberwolves are a resilient squad, and their strength would increase considerably if a healthy Edwards rejoins the lineup. Yet, it seems their main offensive catalyst will be sidelined for at least the initial games due to a hyperextended knee. Should they fall behind early, I fear the Wolves might be completely overwhelmed by Victor Wembanyama. In contrast, San Antonio possesses a multitude of offensive strategies to exploit a Minnesota defense that is already showing signs of fatigue.
Kelly Iko: San Antonio in six. The contest for rebounds is particularly intriguing to me. Minnesota leads all playoff teams in rebounding, and their dominance against the Nuggets in the deciding game could be replicated against the Spurs, even with the formidable Frenchman present. Jaden McDaniels, Terrence Shannon Jr., and Naz Reid collectively possess sufficient offensive rebounding prowess to grant Minnesota additional scoring attempts. However, I have concerns about the poise of Shannon and Bones Hyland when facing a robust and assertive Spurs squad. Although Portland was defeated in five games, they managed to establish significant leads in various stretches, indicating the lingering inexperience in San Antonio. Nevertheless, the Spurs have enough talent to secure the victory.
Tom Haberstroh: San Antonio in five. Rudy Gobert must deliver an extraordinary showing against Wemby for this series to be competitive, though I anticipate Julius Randle will initially be tasked with confronting the “Alien.” The Spurs’ backcourt and Wembanyama collectively pose a far greater threat to Minnesota than the ailing Denver Nuggets did.
Cavaliers-Pistons: Who wins?
Kelly Iko: Cleveland in five. I’m still firmly convinced the Cavaliers will emerge from the Eastern Conference, and I’m not changing that prediction today. Detroit’s defensive scheme is fierce and intelligent, and they will exert maximum effort to disrupt play whenever Donovan Mitchell or James Harden possess the ball. However, I doubt this will be sufficient to compensate for Detroit’s deficiency in secondary scoring (apart from another potential Tobias Harris surge), their bench’s output compared to Cleveland’s, or their overall lack of playoff exposure.
Dan Titus: Cleveland in seven. Detroit’s defensive tenacity will make this a grueling series, and Mitchell’s difficulties driving to the basket against Toronto are likely to recur. Anticipate Detroit heavily contesting the interior. The Pistons’ primary hurdle, however, will be on offense. They rely excessively on Cade Cunningham, and Tobias Harris serving as their second scoring option is concerning. Cleveland’s deep roster and outside shooting, a component Orlando was missing, should tilt this series in the Cavaliers’ favor. Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen need to play assertively to triumph in this physically demanding contest.
Tom Haberstroh: Detroit in seven. I foresee Jalen Duren having a breakout performance. Following a disappointing showing against Orlando, Duren should have little difficulty asserting his presence when matched against Mobley and Allen. Cleveland’s frontcourt lacks the physicality of Orlando’s larger players, granting Detroit a notable advantage in the paint.
Ben Rohrbach: Detroit in six. Considering one perspective, can the Pistons truly match the Cavaliers’ offensive firepower? Their limited options for secondary scoring appeared problematic against the Magic until Harris elevated his game. The sustainability of that reliance is uncertain. Conversely, Cleveland largely found it challenging to generate points against the Raptors’ defense. Prepare for the Cavaliers to face a formidable Detroit team, one that achieved peak performance during moments of extreme pressure.
Lakers-Thunder: Who wins?
Ben Rohrbach: Oklahoma City in five. LeBron James is known for his miraculous feats. Securing even a single victory against this Oklahoma City squad, particularly in the absence of Luka Dončić, would undoubtedly be categorized as one. His dominant display against the Rockets was truly extraordinary. However, replicating that against OKC’s aggressive defense presents an entirely different challenge. Beyond that, consider the impact Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will have on the Lakers. Even if Jalen Williams, who might return before Dončić in this series, is out, the Thunder are poised to easily win.
Tom Haberstroh: Oklahoma City in five. The updates regarding Dončić’s participation, or lack thereof, are highly troubling. I simply cannot envision a 41-year-old LeBron, with Dončić sidelined indefinitely, enduring the intense, high-paced physical demands that this series against OKC will impose.
Dan Titus: Oklahoma City in four. While the Lakers’ defense appeared strong against a poor-shooting Houston squad, OKC represents a distinctly greater test. Marcus Smart will probably guard SGA, but that coverage won’t be sufficient, and Chet Holmgren is expected to excel in this confrontation. Even with a potential return from Luka, it’s difficult to picture Los Angeles maintaining pace. Oklahoma City recently scored an astounding 126 points per 100 possessions in the initial round, and that was without even maximizing their defensive effort.
Kelly Iko: Oklahoma City in five. This series is likely to follow one of two paths: either the Lakers will achieve the symbolic “road upset in Game 1 and momentarily stun everyone,” or they will “claim an emotionally charged Game 3 upon their homecoming.” James’ exceptional talent is sufficient to keep these contests tighter than anticipated, but the Lakers possess no effective counter for SGA, Oklahoma City’s roster of versatile two-way players, and one of the league’s top transition defenses, especially without Dončić. The basketball community eagerly anticipates the inevitable showdown between the Thunder and the Spurs.
What’s your biggest takeaway from the playoffs so far?
Ben Rohrbach: Dominant defense is paramount. The teams performing at their peak — specifically Oklahoma City and San Antonio — feature the league’s elite defensive units. I would also include Detroit and New York in this category. Their strongest periods of play have consistently been fueled by their defensive prowess. Conversely, the Nuggets and Celtics, who were the NBA’s leading offensive teams during the regular season, encountered significant challenges scoring against the stifling defenses employed by the Timberwolves and 76ers, respectively. Scoring capabilities can fluctuate, but defensive strength provides unwavering consistency, as the adage suggests.
Dan Titus: The Eastern Conference title is up for grabs for any contender. My personal prediction is for the Knicks to reach the Finals. However, with three out of the initial four series extending to seven games, it’s evident that no single team holds overwhelming superiority. The permissible error margin is extremely narrow; whichever team prevails will need to skillfully adapt mid-series, execute their game plan flawlessly, and ultimately endure the physically demanding grind.
Kelly Iko: What you consider your greatest asset might, in the end, prove to be your downfall. Teams prioritizing additional scoring opportunities through offensive rebounds – especially those with inherent difficulties generating shots beyond a primary star – have faced the harsh realities of playoff competition. Strikingly, five of the seven teams with the highest offensive rebounding rates are now completely out of the playoffs. The dynamic tension between committing more players to crash the offensive glass versus retreating quickly in transition to establish a defensive formation has been a captivating development to observe.
Tom Haberstroh: No advantage is secure, whether within a single game or across an entire series. This postseason has been remarkable, filled with unexpected turns, intense moments, and vigorous play. Regrettably, the factor of player well-being continues to be a major concern. Player injuries and the unpredictable nature of three-point shooting are generating such unpredictability that discerning each team’s genuine capabilities is challenging. This unpredictability makes forecasting difficult, yet the viewing experience remains utterly captivating.
