Things were heading in a positive direction early Sunday.
However, everything unraveled late in the day — specifically with my NFL point-spread selections, where I posted a 6-3 ATS mark heading into the late slate. By the end of the day, I settled at 7-7 for the week, which drops my overall record for the year to a disappointing 50-68-3.
On the straight-up side, I registered a solid 10-4 outcome. This improves my overall mark on the year to 72-48-1, a result I can certainly live with.
Now the focus shifts to building momentum with spread picks. I’ve backed a few unconventional underdogs this week to spark a rebound.
Here’s hoping those longshots come through.
Lines provided by DraftKings; Eastern Time used for all game schedules
Jacksonville Jaguars (-10) at Baltimore Ravens
- Thursday, 8:15 p.m. on Amazon Prime
Jacksonville benefits on a compressed week by missing Lamar Jackson under center. Baltimore simply isn’t the same offensive force minus their star, forcing them to rely on rookie caller Joe Fagnano. With Trevor Lawrence performing effectively alongside a thriving ground attack, expect the Jaguars to secure a victory on the road despite the brief turnaround.
Pick: Jaguars 27, Ravens 16
Cincinnati Bengals (-3) at Atlanta Falcons
- Madrid on Sunday, 9:30 a.m. on NFL Network (Stream: Fubo — try for free)
Cincinnati’s attack has been explosive lately with Joe Burrow airing out the football. Meanwhile, Atlanta’s offensive unit has sputtered over the past few games, an ominous sign when trying to match Burrow score-for-score. Expect plenty of explosive gains from the Bengals as they claim a win over in Spain.
Pick: Bengals 33, Falcons 21
Denver Broncos (-2.5) at Carolina Panthers
Carolina has taken a beating over their last two contests, prompting the dismissal of defensive coordinator Ejiro Evero. Their defensive unit is currently in disarray. Denver pulled off a gritty win over Kansas City last week powered by late-game heroics from Bo Nix. This matchup presents a much smoother path against a vulnerable Panthers defense and an underperforming offensive line.
Pick: Broncos 26, Panthers 20
Dallas Cowboys (-6) at Indianapolis Colts
- Sunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)
Dallas is recovering from a frustrating home defeat to Arizona, but they catch a fortunate break facing a slumping Indianapolis squad. The Colts are dealing with significant internal issues alongside rumors of potential roster sell-offs. Anticipate Dallas reigniting their offensive rhythm here as their aerial attack leads them back into the win column.
Pick: Cowboys 31, Colts 17
New York Jets (+9.5) at Kansas City Chiefs
Kansas City returns to their home field following back-to-back road losses. New York, meanwhile, squandered a late advantage against Las Vegas last week. The Chiefs’ rushing effort has stalled over their past two outings, but expect Kenneth Walker to find his groove again. Kansas City halts their skid with a victory, though the Jets’ scoring unit will do enough to keep it competitive.
Pick: Chiefs 24, Jets 17
Detroit Lions (-7) at Miami Dolphins
- Sunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)
This presents a tricky road trip for Detroit following consecutive home victories against division foes, especially taking on an improving young roster. However, Miami’s defensive unit faces a formidable task. Detroit possesses the ability to put up points rapidly, and they should do so here. Anticipate an impressive outing from Jared Goff.
Pick: Lions 30, Dolphins 13
Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints (-1.5)
Cleveland hits the road for a second straight week following a defeat in Pittsburgh. New Orleans enjoys a distinct edge coming off their open week. The offensive woes Cleveland exhibited against Pittsburgh are likely to persist in this contest. New Orleans should do just enough to pull out a low-scoring battle.
Pick: Saints 17, Browns 14
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (+3.5)
- Sunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)
New York enters this matchup well-rested from a bye week while sitting atop the division standings, whereas Philadelphia is coming off a Sunday night road loss to Washington. Philadelphia faces problems across multiple areas, yet rival motivation should keep them competitive while their defense holds its ground against J.J. McCarthy. Ultimately, New York prevails in the closing moments.
Pick: Giants 22, Eagles 20
Los Angeles Rams at Washington Commanders (+5.5)
- Sunday, 1 p.m. on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)
Los Angeles faces a lengthy cross-country journey, though they appear to have corrected course over recent outings. Washington completed a comeback victory over Philadelphia on Sunday night. While Washington’s defense delivered a strong performance in that match, this sets up as a spot where Matthew Stafford airs it out successfully. Jayden Daniels should perform capably to stay within reach, but Los Angeles ultimately walks away victorious.
Pick: Rams 28, Commanders 24
Houston Texans at Los Angeles Chargers (+4.5)
Houston returns fresh off their open week, whereas Los Angeles enters following a loss to the Rams. Neither franchise has matched preseason projections, with Los Angeles still searching for their first victory. While Houston’s defense and Los Angeles’ attack have both faltered, expect the Chargers to keep things competitive on the strength of their defense.
Pick: Texans 19, Chargers 16
Las Vegas Raiders at San Francisco 49ers (-10)
- Sunday, 4:25 p.m. on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)
Las Vegas remains on the road for a second straight week, while San Francisco steps onto the field after a bye week—giving San Francisco a significant advantage. Furthermore, San Francisco represents the superior squad. Given Las Vegas’ defensive vulnerabilities, anticipate Brock Purdy orchestrating a big performance through the air as San Francisco wins comfortably.
Pick: 49ers 31, Raiders 17
Green Bay Packers at New England Patriots (+3.5)
- Sunday, 4:25 p.m. on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)
This game carries the hallmark of a low-scoring battle driven by two stellar defensive units, despite both teams boasting strong talent at quarterback. Green Bay benefits from extended rest following their Thursday night game. New England needed a late comeback to top Miami last week. Both defenses should stand tall, but Jordan Love will execute the decisive drives late to secure the win.
Pick: Packers 19, Patriots 16
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-12.5)
- Sunday, 4:25 p.m. on Fox (Stream: Fubo — try for free)
Seattle enters following a disappointing home defeat against Chicago, while Arizona comes off an impressive victory in Dallas. Arizona is transitioning to Gardner Minshew under center after his solid effort last game. However, facing Seattle’s defense won’t be easy, as they’ll be out for redemption after losing to Chicago, and Arizona is poised to absorb the impact of that frustration.
Pick: Seahawks 30, Cardinals 13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+6) at Chicago Bears
- Sunday, 8:20 p.m. on NBC (Stream: Fubo — try for free)
Chicago steps onto the field following a dominant road win over Seattle on Monday night. Such a performance can lead to a slight letdown. Tampa Bay has maintained a strong defensive presence all year while energizing their ground attack. Tampa Bay should move the ball effectively on the ground, yet Caleb Williams will ultimately conjure the crucial late plays to pull out the victory.
Pick: Bears 24, Bucs 21
Buffalo Bills (-3.5) at Minnesota Vikings
- Monday, 8:15 p.m. on ESPN, ABC (Stream: Fubo — try for free)
This marks the premier matchup of the week, putting two top-tier NFL contenders head-to-head. Watching Minnesota’s defense go up against Josh Allen will be fascinating. Still, expect Buffalo to lean heavily on their ground game against Minnesota, mirroring Detroit’s successful strategy last week. Meanwhile, Buffalo’s defense has trended upward recently, which should shine through against a constrained Minnesota offense.
Pick: Bills 21, Vikings 14
