It comes as no shock that the Dallas Cowboys are heavily favored ahead of Thursday evening’s matchup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Indeed, the winless Buccaneers must travel on a shortened schedule to face their opponents in a venue where victory has almost always eluded them.
Historically, Dallas boasts a 13-2 record on their own turf against Tampa Bay, representing the second-highest home win percentage for any franchise against a single foe with at least 15 matchups. Throughout these 15 contests, the Buccaneers have put up a meager 13.2 points per match on average, marking the second-lowest scoring rate for an away squad in one city since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger.
Furthermore, one must remember that Tampa Bay has struggled to a dismal 1-9 record over their previous ten games in the national spotlight since the beginning of the 2023 campaign. Additionally, the team is set to field Jalon Daniels, an undrafted rookie signal-caller who is slated to make his debut career start away from home.
While the odds appear heavily weighted against the Buccaneers, there remains a particular statistic that ought to give Dallas pause. Prior to the launch of this year’s campaign, a total of 10 NFL franchises in league history had:
- began the season with an 0-4 record
- suffered a total point deficit of 21 or fewer across those four defeats
These ten squads achieved a collective 9-1 record during their subsequent Week 5 matchups. Tampa Bay has now joined their ranks as the 11th franchise to fit these specific criteria. Though they remain winless at 0-4, each of their four defeats occurred in highly competitive games decided by a touchdown or less.
Week 1: Bengals defeat Buccaneers 33-27
Week 2: Browns edge Buccaneers 23-19
Week 3: Vikings slip past Buccaneers 23-16
Week 4: Packers squeeze past Buccaneers 17-14
Tampa Bay has been highly competitive in every matchup. They simply have not found a way to secure that elusive opening victory. In total, their combined point deficit across these four matches is a mere 20 points.
Among the ten historical squads that began 0-4 with a point differential of minus-21 or better, six managed to secure their Week 5 victories by seven points or more.
1952 Steelers (Away): Pittsburgh beats Chicago Cardinals 34-28
1961 Steelers (Home): Pittsburgh shuts out Washington 20-0
1974 Lions (Home): Detroit gets past San Francisco 17-13
1991 Buccaneers (Away): Detroit defeats Tampa Bay 31-3
1998 Bears (Home): Chicago edges Detroit 31-27
2000 Patriots (Away): New England conquers Denver 28-19
2005 Packers (Home): Green Bay routs New Orleans 52-3
2011 Vikings (Home): Minnesota dominates Arizona 34-10
2012 Saints (Home): New Orleans defeats San Diego Chargers 31-24
2017 Chargers (Away): Los Angeles holds off Giants 27-22
In addition to boasting a combined 9-1 record, these ten squads went 3-1 during their away contests, which is exactly where Tampa Bay will find themselves this Thursday evening.
What explains this trend? While there is no definitive answer, falling just short in highly competitive matches often instills a belief that a squad can match up with any opponent. When paired with the sheer urgency of trying to escape an 0-4 hole, the conditions become ripe for an unexpected victory.
Naturally, as the records show, the lone 0-4 squad in this scenario that failed to secure a victory was the 1991 Buccaneers, meaning Tampa Bay understands quite well that a Thursday night win is far from guaranteed. In truth, a Buccaneers victory would be highly unexpected, but should they pull off the shocker, consider yourselves forewarned.
