Following the Sparks’ initial game of the holiday weekend, which concluded with a defeat against the Fever, it appeared their aspirations for playoff contention had largely diminished. Their position in the standings was ninth, and they trailed the Valkyries by two victories, and the Storm and Fever by four. To compound matters, they faced a challenging schedule as the year neared its end.
Nevertheless, consecutive triumphs over the Mystics and Seattle have rejuvenated the Sparks’ postseason ambitions. Despite remaining in ninth place, the gap separating them from the Storm and Fever has narrowed to just 1.5 games as the final 10 days of the season approach.
It remains a demanding endeavor, but the perceived difficulty has lessened compared to just a few days prior. Therefore, let’s assess the realistic prospects for the Sparks to end their five-year absence from the playoffs.
Remaining schedules
ESPN’s Basketball Power Index still assesses the Sparks’ chances of reaching the playoffs at merely 16%, whereas the Storm (94.9%), Fever (94.8%), and Valkyries (94.3%) are considered near certainties.
This largely stems from their respective schedules. According to Tankathon, the Sparks face the fifth most challenging remaining schedule. Seattle and Golden State rank higher, at third and second respectively, while Indiana is positioned ninth.
LA is scheduled to play the Wings, who are at the bottom of the league, but they also have matches against the No. 2 seed Aces, the No. 3 seed Dream (twice), and the No. 4 seed Mercury. Both contests against Atlanta and the game against Phoenix are away games as well.
Golden State, conversely, is in the middle of a five-game stretch at home, despite having games against New York, Minnesota (twice), and Seattle. Seattle, in the meantime, has a peculiar schedule with just two games left this season: Friday against New York and Tuesday, Sep. 9, against Golden State.
Indiana is in the most advantageous position regarding their schedule. Following the conclusion of a West Coast road trip in Phoenix on Tuesday, they will return home to face the Sky, a team they have consistently outperformed this season, followed by the Mystics, who are on a seven-game losing streak. Their final game of the season is against the Lynx, who may potentially start resting players as they have secured the No. 1 seed.
Additionally, Caitlin Clark could be returning within the next week, having been sidelined with an injury for the entirety of the second half of the season so far.
As you can see, the Sparks are already dealing with a highly challenging task with their schedule, even if all other factors were equivalent. Catching up to the other teams with such a schedule is going to be particularly difficult.
Tiebreakers
The positive aspect for the Sparks is that they hold a couple of key tiebreakers. While they were defeated by the Valkyries in three of their four encounters, they possess tiebreakers over the Fever and Storm. This means that if they conclude the regular season with identical records, the Sparks will be positioned higher than them.
Considering that, at the time of this writing, the Fever and Storm are the two teams nearest to the Sparks in the standings, having those tiebreakers could prove crucial.
Ultimately, it is still difficult to envision the Sparks reaching the playoffs. While they do have a game they should win against Dallas, this is placed between back-to-back games in Atlanta and games against Phoenix and Las Vegas.
All four of these teams are contending for the No. 2 seed and, as of the time of writing, are separated by only a half-game in the standings. They, too, will be aiming to finish the year strongly and present significant challenges.
Given all of this, the Sparks have faced unfavorable odds for much of the second half of the season, yet continue to find ways to rally. However, has the hole they dug become too deep to escape this time?
You can follow Jacob on Twitter at @JacobRude or on Bluesky at @jacobrude.bsky.social.
