A look at the NFL postseason landscape after the initial three matchups of Week 17, which took place on Christmas: The Detroit Lions’ defeat to the Minnesota Vikings ended their playoff hopes, thereby securing a berth for the Green Bay Packers. Concurrently, the Denver Broncos maintained their strong position for the top seed in the AFC and moved nearer to claiming the AFC West championship.
All but one position in the NFC postseason bracket has been determined: the NFC South victor, a title currently projected for the Carolina Panthers, though the Tampa Bay Buccaneers remain in contention.
(* Clinched playoff spot)
National Football Conference
1. Seattle Seahawks (12-3)*: Upcoming fixtures — visiting the Carolina Panthers, then at the San Francisco 49ers
Path to securing the top seed in the NFC:
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A Seattle victory combined with a Rams defeat or draw, plus a tie between the 49ers and Bears.
Scenarios for winning the NFC West:
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A win for Seattle, along with a loss or tie for the Rams, and a loss or tie for the 49ers, OR
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A tie for Seattle, coupled with losses for both the Rams and the 49ers.
Key probabilities: Seattle possesses a 46% likelihood of retaining the premier seed and a 50% probability of clinching the NFC West, based on The Athletic’s postseason projection tool.
2. Chicago Bears (11-4)*: Scheduled games — facing the San Francisco 49ers away, then hosting the Detroit Lions
Ways to clinch the NFC North:
Significant chances: The Bears secured a postseason berth due to the Lions’ defeat to the Steelers on Sunday. Chicago’s extra-time triumph against Green Bay further solidifies their command of the NFC North, granting them an 89% chance of claiming the division, as per The Athletic. Furthermore, the Bears hold a 14% chance for the top overall seed.
3. Philadelphia Eagles (10-5)*: Upcoming fixtures — traveling to the Buffalo Bills, then hosting the Washington Commanders
Key probabilities: The Eagles, who have won the NFC East in consecutive seasons, have under a 1% chance of securing the top seed in the NFC.
4. Carolina Panthers (8-7): Scheduled games — hosting the Seattle Seahawks, then visiting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Paths to winning the NFC South:
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A Panthers victory coupled with a Buccaneers defeat or draw, OR
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A Panthers tie and a Buccaneers loss.
Significant chances: A substantial win against the Bucs propelled Carolina into the leading position in the NFC South. The Panthers’ odds of winning the division increased to 45%, as per The Athletic. They are still slated to face Tampa Bay in the final game of the regular season.
5. San Francisco 49ers (11-4)*: Upcoming fixtures — hosting the Chicago Bears, then hosting the Seattle Seahawks
Key probabilities: The 49ers secured a playoff spot following the Lions’ Week 16 defeat. They also hold approximately a 27% chance at the conference’s premier seed, according to The Athletic. To clinch the top seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs, they merely need to achieve victories in their remaining games against the Bears and Seahawks.
6. Los Angeles Rams (11-4)*: Scheduled games — visiting the Atlanta Falcons, then hosting the Arizona Cardinals
Scenario for NFC West title: While the Rams have already qualified for the postseason, they require external assistance to claim the division championship and the conference’s top seed. According to RamsWire, Los Angeles must:
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Defeat both the Falcons and the Cardinals, AND
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For the Seahawks to lose to the Panthers but then defeat the 49ers, AND
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For the 49ers to beat the Bears yet lose to the Seahawks, AND
Key probabilities: The Rams’ chances of securing the top seed decreased from 53% to 12% following the outcomes of Week 16, according to The Athletic.
7. Green Bay Packers* (9-5-1): Upcoming fixtures — hosting the Baltimore Ravens, then visiting the Minnesota Vikings
Path to winning the NFC North:
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Achieve victories in their last two games, coupled with losses for the Bears in their final two contests.
Significant chances: The Packers secured a playoff position when the Lions fell to the Vikings on Christmas Day. However, their probability of winning the NFC North stands at merely 11%, as per The Athletic.
Still in the NFC picture
11. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-8): Scheduled games — visiting the Miami Dolphins, then hosting the Carolina Panthers
Key probabilities: Although the defeat to the Panthers temporarily removes Tampa Bay from a playoff berth, the Buccaneers still possess a 54% chance of securing the NFC South title, according to The Athletic. This is attributed to their upcoming rematch with Carolina, where a victory would grant them the tiebreaker advantage.
American Football Conference
1. Denver Broncos (13-3)*: Upcoming fixture — hosting the Los Angeles Chargers
Path to securing the top seed in the AFC:
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A Chargers defeat or draw, coupled with a Patriots loss, a Bills loss or tie, and a Jaguars loss or tie.
Scenarios for winning the AFC West:
Key probabilities: Prior to their win on Thursday, the Broncos were considered the frontrunners to claim the AFC’s premier seed, with a 46% chance, as per The Athletic. Denver held a 73% probability of triumphing in the AFC West.
2. New England Patriots (12-3)*: Scheduled games — visiting the New York Jets, then hosting the Miami Dolphins
Ways to clinch the AFC East:
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A Patriots victory along with a Bills defeat or draw, OR
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A Patriots tie combined with a Bills loss.
Significant chances: The Patriots secured their postseason entry by defeating the Ravens on Sunday evening. They possess an 82% chance of winning the AFC East, according to The Athletic, and a 38% probability of earning the No. 1 seed.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (11-4)*: Upcoming fixtures — traveling to the Indianapolis Colts, then hosting the Tennessee Titans
Scenarios for winning the AFC South:
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A Jaguars victory and a Texans loss or tie, OR
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A Jaguars tie coupled with a Texans loss.
Key probabilities: The Jaguars have officially qualified for the postseason due to the Colts’ defeat on Monday night. They also hold strong command of the AFC South, with an 82% probability of winning the division, as per The Athletic. Their Sunday win against the Broncos furthermore maintains Jacksonville’s candidacy for the top seed at 12%.
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6): Scheduled games — visiting the Cleveland Browns, then hosting the Baltimore Ravens
Ways to clinch the AFC North:
Significant chances: The Steelers maintain solid control of the AFC North, possessing a 91% probability of securing the division title, according to The Athletic.
5. Los Angeles Chargers (11-4)*: Upcoming fixtures — hosting the Houston Texans, then visiting the Denver Broncos
Key probabilities: The Chargers have qualified for the postseason following the Colts’ loss on Monday. Unexpectedly, Los Angeles now dictates its own route to an AFC West championship should it achieve victories in its remaining games, including against the Broncos in the season’s final contest. The Chargers also retain a chance for the top seed, at 3%, as per The Athletic.
6. Buffalo Bills (11-4)*: Scheduled games — hosting the Philadelphia Eagles, then hosting the New York Jets
Significant chances: While Buffalo’s prospects of overtaking New England for the division championship remain low (19% as indicated by The Athletic), the Bills have secured a playoff spot following the Colts’ defeat on Monday.
7. Houston Texans (10-5): Upcoming fixtures — traveling to the Los Angeles Chargers, then hosting the Indianapolis Colts
Paths to securing a playoff spot:
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Houston secures the strength of victory tiebreaker against the Colts (requiring a Ravens win + Bills win + Chiefs win + 49ers win + Falcons loss + Dolphins loss).
Key probabilities: The Texans are almost certain to qualify for the playoffs but possess only a 21% probability of winning the AFC South, according to The Athletic.
Remaining contenders in the AFC
8. Indianapolis Colts (8-7): Scheduled games — hosting the Jacksonville Jaguars, then visiting the Houston Texans
Path to securing a playoff spot:
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Defeat both the Jaguars AND Texans in their upcoming two weeks, AND the Texans must lose against the Chargers on Saturday.
Significant chances: The Colts face imminent elimination, holding only a 2% probability of making the playoffs, as per The Athletic, subsequent to Monday’s defeat to the 49ers. A Texans win against the Chargers on Saturday would conclude the Colts’ season.
9. Baltimore Ravens (7-8): Upcoming fixtures — visiting the Green Bay Packers, then visiting the Pittsburgh Steelers
Key probabilities: The Ravens’ postseason aspirations suffered a significant setback with their Sunday night defeat to the Patriots. Their chances of reaching the postseason now stand at 10%, according to The Athletic.
Teams no longer in contention
American Football Conference
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Kansas City Chiefs (6-10)
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Cincinnati Bengals (5-10)
National Football Conference
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New Orleans Saints (5-10)
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Washington Commanders (4-12)
