The $1 million, Grade 2 Rebel Stakes, scheduled for Sunday at Oaklawn Park, is anticipated to be a compelling competition. Out of the ten horses entered, a number are established graded stakes performers, although entrant #1 Bravaro is projected to withdraw and participate in Saturday’s Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes.
Which contender holds the highest probability of winning the 2026 Rebel? Our examination of the recent past of this 1 1/16-mile qualifier for the Road to the Kentucky Derby, Presented by Woodford Reserve, has uncovered six key historical patterns that can aid in evaluating the field:
Prioritize contenders demonstrating early pace
Competitors who exhibit swift early pace generally excel in the Rebel. Among the previous 15 victors, five (33%) held the lead at the half-mile mark, and 13 (87%) were positioned within the leading half of the pack. One additional winner, Will Take Charge, advanced from a mid-field position exactly at the half-mile point.
Expressed differently, for 12 of the last 15 Rebel champions (80%), their position at the half-mile pole was within 1 3/4 lengths of the front-runner.
|
Year |
Winner |
Position after first 1/2-mile |
1/2-mile & 3/4-mile times (course condition) |
|
2025 |
Coal Battle |
5th by 8 lengths (13 starters) |
45.72, 1:10.94 (fast) |
|
2024 |
Timberlake |
5th by 1.5 lengths (12 starters) |
47.67, 1:12.93 (fast) |
|
2023 |
Confidence Game |
5th by 4.25 lengths (11 starters) |
46.17, 1:11.45 (sloppy) |
|
2022 |
Un Ojo |
3rd by 1 length (11 starters) |
48.86, 1:14.30 (fast) |
|
2021 |
Concert Tour |
1st by 1 length (8 starters) |
47.53, 1:12.00 (fast) |
|
2020 |
Nadal |
1st by a head (8 starters) |
46.00, 1:11.38 (sloppy) |
|
2019 (Div #2) |
Omaha Beach |
1st by a head (10 starters) |
47.29, 1:11.82 (fast) |
|
2019 (Div #1) |
Long Range Toddy |
5th by 1.75 lengths (7 starters) |
47.58, 1:11.92 (fast) |
|
2018 |
Magnum Moon |
3rd by 0.5 lengths (10 starters) |
47.15, 1:11.26 (fast) |
|
2017 |
Malagacy |
2nd by 1 length (11 starters) |
47.04, 1:11.35 (fast) |
|
2016 |
Cupid |
1st by 1 length (14 starters) |
46.82, 1:12.11 (fast) |
|
2015 |
American Pharoah |
1st by 1 length (7 starters) |
49.63, 1:15.22 (sloppy) |
|
2014 |
Hoppertunity |
3rd by 0.5 lengths (8 starters) |
47.97, 1:12.24 (wet fast) |
|
2013 |
Will Take Charge |
6th by 4.75 lengths (11 starters) |
47.19, 1:12.39 (fast) |
|
2012 |
Secret Circle |
4th by 1.5 lengths (12 starters) |
47.09, 1:11.42 (fast) |
Do not disregard long-odds contenders for winning or placing second
Underdogs frequently outperform predictions in the Rebel. Over the past 15 runnings, instances of double-digit upsets include Coal Battle (11.90-1), Confidence Game (18.50-1), Un Ojo (75.40-1), and Will Take Charge (28-1), whereas Common Defense (27.20-1), Ethereal Road (15.80-1), Hozier (18.80-1), Excession (82.60-1), Sonneteer (112.30-1), and Optimizer (27.90-1) have secured runner-up positions with high odds.
Bob Baffert stands out as the preeminent trainer
Renowned trainer Bob Baffert consistently performs exceptionally well in the Rebel. Since 2010, his trainees have achieved eight victories, five second-place finishes, and one third-place finish from 17 entries, translating to a 50% success rate for wins and an 81% rate for finishing in the top three.
Participation in a recent preparatory race proves advantageous
Claiming victory in the Rebel in a horse’s inaugural seasonal outing requires exceptional quality. Since 2012, only two horses have achieved this: Timberlake (2024) and American Pharoah (2015). Both possessed established talent as Grade 1 victors.
Conversely, contenders that competed during either January or February have triumphed in 13 of the most recent 15 Rebel editions.
Exercise caution when wagering on horses prepared at Oaklawn
One might anticipate that horses accustomed to racing at Oaklawn would demonstrate superior performance in the Rebel. However, this is not consistently true. Merely four of the past 15 winners (26%) had their preceding race at Oaklawn. The remaining 11 prepared at Santa Anita Park (on six occasions), Fair Grounds (twice), and Gulfstream Park, Tampa Bay Downs, or Aqueduct (once each).
Experienced long-distance runners hold an edge
Although a victory in the Rebel is achievable for horses extending beyond sprint distances for the inaugural time, 12 of the last 15 champions (80%) had previously participated in at least one race spanning a mile or greater.
Summary Observations
Among the contenders in the 2026 Rebel Stakes, no single entry perfectly aligns with every trend we have detailed, yet #2 Litmus Test presents a fairly strong correlation.
Litmus Test, a horse trained by Bob Baffert, possesses significant early acceleration. In the previous year, he established the early tempo en route to a third-place finish in the 1 1/16-mile, Grade 1 Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity, and he maintained a second-place position behind the leader before claiming victory in the 1 1/16-mile, Grade 2 Los Alamitos Futurity. The Rebel will represent his initial race at Oaklawn Park.
Litmus Test faces a couple of minor disadvantages. Firstly, he is not expected to be a longshot, though this is acceptable as horses with lower odds frequently secure victories in the Rebel. Secondly, he has been absent from racing since December 13th, but his impressive displays in graded stakes events last year indicate he possesses the capability to perform well despite the 2 ½-month hiatus.
Best of fortune, and have pleasure watching the competition!
