On Thursday at Bay Hill Club & Lodge, Daniel Berger stood apart from the competition. The 32-year-old delivered a flawless opening performance at the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational, carding a 9-under 63 to establish a three-shot advantage over Collin Morikawa and Ludvig Åberg after the initial round.
Berger’s score of 63 marks the lowest round recorded at Bay Hill in over ten years, with Adam Scott having posted a 62 back in 2014. This achievement by Berger ranks as the second-best round of his PGA Tour career, topped only by his 62 at the 2016 Travelers Championship.
“I’ve been playing well. It’s like one shot here, one shot there that kind of doesn’t go your way,” Berger said. “And even last week I played pretty well and just didn’t quite score the way I wanted to. Really, it’s just freeing it up and enjoying it. Coming out here and just doing what you love to do and not thinking about the results and just sticking to the process that you know works for yourself.”
What makes Berger’s display even more remarkable is his revelation that he fractured his finger while competing in last summer’s BMW Championship. He indicated that this injury could take up to a year to heal completely and that he experiences both favorable and unfavorable days with it. Thursday was undoubtedly one of his strong days.
Berger accumulated nine pars and nine birdies for his 63, with his longest successful putt measuring only 12 feet. A similar level of precision will be crucial if he hopes to secure his first victory in more than five years, a period marked by numerous injuries.
Trailing him closely is Morikawa, who conceded that the memory of last year’s event still lingers. Morikawa famously failed to convert a back-nine lead into a victory in Orlando twelve months prior. He is now strategically positioning himself for a comparable charge heading into the weekend, as is Åberg, who produced the lowest score during the afternoon session when playing conditions became more challenging.
Elsewhere on the standings, other prominent names include Cameron Young, who submitted a 66, Xander Schauffele, who finished one shot higher without any bogeys, and Chris Gotterup, who impressed with a 69 to enter the top 10 alongside Rickie Fowler.
Scottie Scheffler quieted his initial critics by carding a round of 70, which was two strokes better than Rory McIlroy’s 72 from the later grouping.
“It’s going to be an incredibly difficult and challenging week,” Berger said. “You can already see … the greens are like white. So a little bit of wind, a little bit less moisture, and it’s just going to be like a U.S. Open. I think when you come to Bay Hill to play this event, you know what you’re getting, and so it doesn’t shock me. You’re ready for it.”
Leader
1. Daniel Berger (-9): Playing golf at Bay Hill is typically demanding, but Berger appeared unfazed on Thursday. The former top-20 ranked player in the world birdied half of his holes, with every single one of those putts sinking from within 12 feet. By successfully converting numerous crucial putts from around the 8-foot range and creating ample scoring opportunities, he dominated the field to deliver one of the finest rounds of his career and one of the best ever witnessed at Bay Hill.
“If I had to compare, it would probably be the 2018 U.S. Open. I shot, I don’t know, 3-, 4-under at Shinnecock on Saturday and went from 60th to tied for the lead,” Berger said in reference to the best rounds of his career. “So it has that U.S. Open kind of feel to it. I think the course is just going to get tougher as the week goes on.
“The greens are going to get firmer. As you can see on 18, there’s a little bit of reception when you’re hitting a wedge in there, and I just, I don’t think that’s going to last. So, yeah, just hit it in the fairway and try to make as many putts as you can.”
Contenders
T2. Collin Morikawa, Ludvig Åberg (-6)
T4. Cameron Young, Jhonattan Vegas (-5)
T6. Ryan Fox, Xander Schauffele, Adam Scott (-4)
T9. Billy Horschel, Min Woo Lee, Corey Conners, Harris English, Keith Mitchell, Bud Cauley, Kurt Kitayama, Chris Gotterup, Rickie Fowler (-3)
The two-time major champion appears revitalized and invigorated following his victory at the Pebble Beach Pro-Am. Having regained his proficiency in iron play—where he ranked second only to Berger in Round 1—Morikawa is exhibiting a level of assurance not seen since the early 2020s.
Beyond his signature iron game, Morikawa also appears to have solved his putting challenges. He finished in the top 10 in putting on Thursday, attributed to successful putts from distances of 40 feet, 21 feet, 39 feet, 16 feet, and 29 feet. It is evident that this combination creates a formidable path to success.
“I’m never going to forget how I played last year,” Morikawa said. “You don’t want to forget about it. Like I still played solid. But you want to close out events. You don’t dwell on it. You learn from it, you move on, you live from it and that’s the biggest thing is, how do I take a lot of the good shots I had from last year — and this is a course, coming into last year, like I said yesterday, I think I had two missed cuts in a row.
“So you go into it saying, ‘OK, maybe there is a way I can come out here and figure out the golf course and then plot my way around. It’s just nice to be able to continue that. Today I felt like I was kind of back and forth. Playing good golf, made some bogeys made some mistakes and to have that finish is a nice way to go into the next few days and say okay, how many days can we continue the good golf.”
Scheffler’s start
Another opening round in the 70s! Panic is setting in. Hold on! Not so fast, folks. Scheffler’s initial round of 70 was nearly two strokes superior to the field’s average and positions the world No. 1 excellently to compete for his third red cardigan in five years over the next 54 holes. There won’t be a ten-stroke deficit to conquer this week.
Scheffler introduced a new driver on Thursday and deployed it effectively, gaining almost a full stroke on the rest of the field specifically with that club. While his putting was about average, Scheffler’s iron play showed a slight decline compared to his usual standard. He only hit 10 greens in regulation—a figure most anticipate will improve despite the challenging firmness of the course.
“I think being satisfied is always a bit of a stretch in golf,” Scheffler said. “No, I feel like I did some really good things. I felt like I made a couple mistakes that I shouldn’t have, but overall I did some really good stuff out there. Anything under par on this golf course is a decent score.”
2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational updated odds, picks
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
- Daniel Berger: 5-1
- Scottie Scheffler: 6-1
- Collin Morikawa: 7-1
- Ludvig Åberg: 15/2
- Cameron Young: 11-1
- Xander Schauffele: 13-1
- Adam Scott: 25-1
Åberg is the sole player listed above who competed in the afternoon wave, which was nearly two strokes tougher. He is expected to encounter calmer conditions Friday morning, as will Fowler at 35-1, who was among my pre-tournament selections. Fowler is currently driving the ball with exceptional skill, putting confidently, and successfully avoiding errors on his scorecard on Thursday. A continuation of this performance should set him up for a strong weekend showing.
