The baseball season has begun with an unusual trend. Experienced batters are underperforming, while newcomers and unforeseen talents such as Zack Gelof and JJ Bleday are capturing attention. This analysis focuses on four seasoned players with established careers who haven’t reached anticipated levels of performance during the initial two months of play. We will scrutinize their abilities and elements of chance to determine if their underlying capabilities suggest improved results in the future.
Manny Machado, Padres (97% Rostered)
Is now the right moment to invest in Manny Machado at a lower valuation? Nearing the conclusion of May, it’s improbable that anyone would have predicted Machado to have accumulated nine home runs alongside a .169 batting average. Machado has experienced poor luck, evidenced by a .173 Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) in 2026, a notable contrast to his career BABIP of .296. Regarding his plate discipline, most of Machado’s statistical indicators mirror his career averages. This is demonstrated by his 76.7% contact percentage, a 28.8% swing-at-pitches-outside-the-zone rate, and an 11% whiff rate.
Machado continues to pull batted balls and launch them into the air approximately 41% of the time in 2026, a figure that remains within 1-2 percentage points of his recent seasons and career norms. Given this consistency, Machado’s BABIP is expected to normalize, as there have been no dramatic alterations to his batted ball tendencies. For instance, if Machado were hitting a significantly higher proportion of flyballs than usual, the substantial decrease in BABIP would be more comprehensible.
Machado still exhibits robust power statistics. This is evident in his 74.1 mph bat speed, although his barrel rate per plate appearance has halved in 2026 (4.6%) compared to 2025 (9.3%). Machado still makes hard contact, registering a 101.1 mph Exit Velocity 50 (EV50) (ranking 87th), which signifies the average speed of the hardest 50% of a player’s batted balls. For context, Machado’s EV50 declined from 103.4 mph (ranking 28th), aligning with the reduced barrel rate.
Should Machado’s power metrics fail to rebound to levels closer to his 2025 performance and prior seasons, it will necessitate an adjustment to our expectations for his role as a key fantasy contributor at his position. Consider acquiring Machado at his current diminished value.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Blue Jays (99% Rostered)
If you were posed a trivia question asking which batter had accumulated more stolen bases than home runs by late May, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. would likely not be your first guess. Guerrero has recorded three home runs and five stolen bases as the month of May draws to a close. Despite his performance not being particularly standout, projections indicate he could replicate his 2025 season. Historically, Guerrero has displayed exceptional plate discipline, characterized by a higher walk rate (12.8%) than his strikeout rate (10.6%). Interestingly, in 2026, Guerrero has been more aggressive at the plate, with a 48.3% swing rate and a 31.2% chase rate. However, his career swing rate (47.5%) is comparable, while his current chase rate exceeds his career average (27.1%) by four percentage points.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s 15-game rolling FB, chase rate and HR/F. (Photo by Corbin Young/FanGraphs)
A persistent issue for Guerrero is hitting too many ground balls, maintaining a groundball rate between 46-47%. This directly influences his home run efficiency, with a 5.4% home run per flyball (HR/F) rate in 2026, significantly lower than his 17.1% career average. It is anticipated that Guerrero’s home run rate will improve, aligning with his top-tier power capabilities. He continues to exhibit high bat speed (76.2 mph), but his barrel rate per plate appearance has decreased to 5.6% in 2026, compared to 9% in 2025, which was closer to his career average.
Guerrero consistently strikes the ball with force, but his launch angles have presented a challenge. Furthermore, the consistency of Guerrero’s launch angle remains a concern because he frequently drives potential power hits into the ground, despite typically boasting a high barrel rate. For batters who often hit ground balls, the ideal scenario is for them to maximize the power on their flyballs and line drives. As an illustration, Guerrero recorded an average exit velocity of 95.7 mph on flyballs and line drives (ranking 44th) in 2025, following 97.1 mph in 2024. Regrettably, Guerrero’s average exit velocity on flyballs and line drives has plummeted to 91.3 mph (ranking 204th) in 2026.
Guerrero’s 2026 performance appears to be an anomaly from an exit velocity perspective, potentially positioning him as an attractive “buy-low” prospect given his failure to generate significant power output thus far.
Gunnar Henderson, Orioles (99% Rostered)
Gunnar Henderson has demonstrated both power and speed, boasting 13 home runs and six stolen bases. Nevertheless, his .222 batting average and a career-low On-Base Percentage (OBP) of .274 are the primary areas of concern. Historically, Henderson has been a valuable asset in terms of batting average (.265), on-base percentage (.339), and in points-based leagues throughout his career. So, what underlying factors are contributing to this shift?
Henderson has adopted a more aggressive approach, swinging more frequently (49.9% swing rate) and chasing pitches outside the strike zone more often (35.6%). In comparison, his career swing rate was four percentage points lower (46.2%), accompanied by a significantly reduced chase rate (26.2%). His swinging-strike rate has risen to 11.7% in 2026, which is only slightly higher than his career average of 10.7%.
Given Henderson’s increased aggression and tendency to chase pitches, it is logical that his walk rate has fallen to a career low of 6%. The hope is that Henderson will revert to his career averages by adopting a more patient approach to improve his OBP. The Automated Ball-Strike (ABS) System categorizes strike zones into shadow and chase regions. The shadow area encompasses the perimeter of the strike zone, both inside and outside, while the chase area extends beyond this shadow. Henderson’s statistical breakdown is presented here:
Gunnar Henderson’s Statcast strike zone breakdown. (Photo by Corbin Young/Yahoo Sports)
Henderson has been swinging more frequently in both the shadow area (58.4%) and the chase zones (31.5%) during 2026. This trend aligns with his elevated overall chase rate, yet a zone-by-zone analysis provides greater insight into his swing tendencies. For comparison, Henderson’s career swing rates in the shadow area (50.8%) and chase sections (20.1%) have been considerably lower. This is a factor to observe if Henderson continues to chase pitches and maintain a reduced OBP.
Henderson has subtly altered his hitting approach, pulling the ball more often (47.9% pull rate) and increasing his launch angle (39.4%). An elevated flyball rate can influence a player’s BABIP, which is what we observe with Henderson, although his flyball rate has not yet reached an extreme of 50%. Both Henderson’s pull and flyball rates are 6-7 percentage points higher than his career norms. This is typically an advantageous approach for power hitters, especially considering his historical tendency to hit groundballs, with a career average of 47.2%.
Henderson consistently exhibits high-end bat speed (74.5 mph) and maintains a steady 6% barrel rate per plate appearance. Both of these metrics are within one percentage point of his career averages. Theoretically, pulling airborne balls with strong exit velocities should yield optimal outcomes, but his batted ball results have been less favorable in 2026. The visualization below illustrates the outcomes and exit velocities of Henderson’s pulled flyballs.
Results of Gunnar Henderson’s pulled flyballs. (Photo by Corbin Young/Yahoo Sports)
Henderson consistently maintained a weighted On-Base Average (wOBA) above 1.000 on pulled flyballs throughout his career, but this figure has decreased to .921 wOBA in 2026. Notably, his expected wOBA of .580 has been lower than in recent seasons, although it has shown a gradual increase over the course of the current season. His average exit velocity on pulled flyballs in 2026 (96.2 mph) is comparable to his 2025 performance. However, Henderson’s barrel rate per plate appearance on pulled flyballs in 2026 (28%) has nearly halved. The data from 2026 may represent an anomaly, suggesting that Henderson’s barrel rate and subsequent outcomes on pulled flyballs could see a positive correction.
Projections indicate that Henderson could approach 30 home runs and exceed 20 stolen bases. His primary challenge will remain his batting average and OBP, impacting his value across various league formats. While a clear opportunity to acquire Henderson at a low price may not exist due to his current power and speed production, I would still rely on his established performance and strong underlying skills, anticipating that his batting average and OBP will ascend closer to his career averages.
Geraldo Perdomo, Diamondbacks (92% Rostered)
Following an outstanding 2025 season—where he achieved 20 home runs, 27 stolen bases, nearly 200 combined runs and RBIs, and a .290 batting average—Geraldo Perdomo has experienced a sluggish beginning to the current year. He has tallied two home runs and eight steals, yet his batting average stands at a mere .223. Similar to other batters, Perdomo’s BABIP has declined in 2026 to .248, representing his lowest figure since 2022. He has, however, continued to hit a high volume of line drives (24.7%), a potential career best. There is a strong likelihood that Perdomo’s BABIP will normalize closer to his career average, as batters who frequently hit line drives typically exhibit higher BABIPs.
Perdomo still demonstrates almost elite plate discipline, evidenced by an 89.8% contact rate and a 21.1% chase rate. This aligns with his higher walk rate (14.5%) compared to his strikeout rate (13.2%), which underpins his robust OBP. He is expected to maintain his value in points and OBP-focused leagues, with the potential for an improved batting average in those formats.
Power was not his defining characteristic, as he accumulated 20 home runs over 720 plate appearances in 2025. Perdomo’s barrel rate per plate appearance stood at 4.6% in 2025, but this has fallen to 2.8% in 2026. He has been hitting more ground balls in 2026, which negatively affects his ability to lift the ball. Perdomo’s groundball rate in 2026 is 45.3%, an increase from 37.5% in 2025. This change coincided with his career-high 9.9% home run per flyball rate (HR/F) in 2025, which has now decreased to 4.4% in 2026.
Fortunately, Perdomo has maintained his frequent running, with an 18% stolen base opportunity rate in 2026, slightly surpassing his 2025 rate of 15%. He is projected to steal approximately 25 bases again, but his home run total may revert to around 10, as indicated by current projections.
If Perdomo’s batting average does not improve, it will signify a disappointing season from a fantasy baseball perspective. A player achieving 10 home runs, 25 stolen bases, and a reduced batting average would fall short of fantasy managers’ expectations, especially if they drafted him. Given that there appear to be no fundamental declines in his skills, we anticipate Perdomo’s batting average will rise closer to the .270 or .280 range.
Perdomo likely holds greater utility in season-long rotisserie and points-based leagues rather than head-to-head formats, as he relies on accumulated statistics for fantasy value. Overall, the 2026 season appears to be a regression for Perdomo.
