An outstanding group of competitors has been assembled for Saturday’s 157th edition of the $1.25 million DraftKings Travers Stakes at Saratoga Race Course.
This ten-horse lineup for the renowned “Mid-Summer Derby” features the premier three-year-old colts in the nation, highlighted by Golden Tempo, Renegade, and Ocelli, who claimed the first three positions in the Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve.
Pinpointing the logical victor is a challenging task. However, examining the modern historical trends of this race uncovers repeating patterns that allow us to evaluate the field and find the runner who matches the profile of previous champions.
To assist with your handicapping, consider these seven historical trends:
Steer clear of late-running closers
Notably, 75% of the previous 16 winners (12 total) raced within 3.5 lengths of the frontrunner following the initial half-mile. Runners coming from the back of the pack rarely find success in this event.
|
Season |
Champion |
Position at the half-mile mark |
4-furlong & 6-furlong splits |
|
2025 |
Sovereignty |
4th, trailing by 2 lengths (5 runners) |
:47.43, 1:11.23 (fast) |
|
2024 |
Fierceness |
4th, trailing by 1.5 lengths (8 runners) |
:48.10, 1:11.62 (fast) |
|
2023 |
Arcangelo |
4th, trailing by 2.5 lengths (7 runners) |
:48.10, 1:11.73 (muddy) |
|
2022 |
Epicenter |
4th, trailing by 2 lengths (8 runners) |
:47.63, 1:11.43 (fast) |
|
2021 |
Essential Quality |
2nd, trailing by 3.5 lengths (7 runners) |
:48.96, 1:14.49 (fast) |
|
2020 |
Tiz the Law |
3rd, trailing by 0.5 lengths (7 runners) |
:48.36, 1:11.95 (fast) |
|
2019 |
Code of Honor |
9th, trailing by 4.75 lengths (12 runners) |
:47.26, 1:11.21 (fast) |
|
2018 |
Catholic Boy |
2nd, trailing by 0.5 lengths (10 runners) |
:47.81, 1:11.97 (fast) |
|
2017 |
West Coast |
1st, leading by 1 length (12 runners) |
:48.12, 1:12.23 (fast) |
|
2016 |
Arrogate |
1st, leading by 1 length (13 runners) |
:46.84, 1:10.85 (fast) |
|
2015 |
Keen Ice |
5th, trailing by 5 lengths (10 runners) |
:48.30, 1:11.48 (fast) |
|
2014 |
V. E. Day |
7th, trailing by 14.5 lengths (10 runners) |
:47.31, 1:11.27 (fast) |
|
2013 |
Will Take Charge |
5th, trailing by 4.25 lengths (9 runners) |
:48.88, 1:13.43 (fast) |
|
2012 |
Golden Ticket (dead heat) |
4th, trailing by 3 lengths (11 runners) |
:48.06, 1:12.62 (fast) |
|
2012 |
Alpha (dead heat) |
3rd, trailing by 2 lengths (11 runners) |
:48.06, 1:12.62 (fast) |
|
2011 |
Stay Thirsty |
2nd, trailing by 1 length (10 runners) |
:47.63, 1:11.91 (fast) |
Give preference to Triple Crown participants
Entrants with experience in at least one leg of the Triple Crown series (the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, or Belmont Stakes) have captured 11 of the previous 16 running’s (69%), capturing the last seven consecutive renewals.
Haskell Stakes runners seldom win
Although the Grade 1 Haskell Stakes serves as a premier summer target for three-year-olds, it infrequently yields the winner of the Travers. Keen Ice in 2015 remains the most recent Haskell participant to capture this race, while Point Given was the last to achieve victories in both events back in 2001.
The Empire State offers the top prep races
Contenders coming off a performance in New York have accounted for 12 of the previous 16 winners (75%). Of those, seven prep ran in Saratoga’s Jim Dandy Stakes, with six individuals (Stay Thirsty, Alpha, Essential Quality, Epicenter, Fierceness, and Sovereignty) securing consecutive victories in both stakes.
Recent winners possess a strong edge
An impressive 13 of the past 16 victors (with the last ten consecutively) entered the starting gate coming off a victory in their previous race.
Look for progeny of stallions with Grade 1 route wins
Progeny of sires who recorded Grade 1 victories at distances of nine furlongs or greater hold the advantage here, accounting for 11 of the past 16 winners (69%).
Disadvantage for the rail post position
Going back to 1995, the number one gate has only yielded a single winner: Arrogate during his record-breaking 2016 performance.
Final Analysis
Multiple contenders in this field, such as Jim Dandy Stakes Presented by Mohegan Sun champion #5 Renegade (3-1) and Preakness Stakes victor #3 Napoleon Solo (8-1), satisfy five of our seven established parameters. However, only #9 Golden Tempo (5-2) checks six of those boxes:
- He performed superbly throughout the Triple Crown, securing victories in both the Kentucky Derby and the Belmont Stakes
- He bypassed the Haskell Stakes
- His most recent prep took place within New York
- He enters off a victory in his previous start
- He is sired by Curlin, a multiple Grade 1 winner over distances of 1 1/8 miles and beyond
- He will start from a stall outside of the rail post position
The sole concern regarding Golden Tempo lies in his running style, as he is a dedicated deep closer lacking early tactical speed. It is highly probable he will sit further back than 3.5 lengths from the pace at the half-mile mark. Nonetheless, his late surge proved effective even against a slow tempo in the Belmont Stakes, and historical trends indicate Golden Tempo is well-positioned to take home the Travers title.
Have a great time watching the race!
