Friday turned out to be a disappointing day for the New York Yankees, despite starting their final regular-season road trip with a dominant 9-2 victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks. Captain Aaron Judge is set to return to the injured list due to a right calf strain, coming less than two weeks after he came back from a fractured rib that had kept him out of action for over three months. Judge’s availability for the remainder of the year is now highly uncertain.
“I can’t provide a specific return date for him. I won’t make any predictions. We are going to focus on his treatment and see how things progress,” manager Aaron Boone stated (according to MLB.com). “…The reality is, we have had to compete without him for a significant portion of this season. There is no simple way to replace a talent as exceptional as Aaron Judge, but our high standards remain. They do not change because of this setback.”
The Yankees are typically very guarded regarding details of Judge’s physical setbacks. They chose not to disclose the exact grade of the calf strain or establish a clear recovery window. Generally, a Grade 1 calf strain—the mildest version—demands a two-to-three-week stay on the injured list, though calf muscles are notoriously sensitive and prone to re-injury. Complete recovery is essential, otherwise you risk a much more severe injury.
For all practical purposes, New York has locked down the primary wild-card position. They hold a comfortable six-game advantage in the loss column over the Boston Red Sox, who are currently in possession of the second wild-card spot. Because the Yankees secured the tiebreaker by winning the season series, their cushion is effectively seven games. The Bronx Bombers could mathematically secure the top wild-card position as early as Sunday.
While capturing the AL East division crown remains technically possible, the odds are incredibly slim. The Yankees trail the Tampa Bay Rays by four games in the loss column, with a crucial four-game series between the teams scheduled for next week in the Bronx. Tampa Bay needs only a single victory in those four matches to lock up the season series and the tiebreaker, making New York’s path exceptionally challenging.
To outline the scenario, here is what must happen for the Yankees to capture the AL East title, assuming they sweep the upcoming four games against the Rays to secure the tiebreaker for themselves, which is a major assumption:
- Rays finish 6-3 or better: Rays claim the AL East
- Rays finish 5-4: Yankees must run the table at 9-0
- Rays finish 4-5: Yankees must finish 8-1
- Rays finish 3-6: Yankees must finish 7-2
- Rays finish 2-7: Yankees must finish 6-3
- Rays finish 1-8: Yankees must finish 5-4
- Rays finish 0-9: Yankees must finish 4-5
With a postseason berth already secured, winning the division was always a long shot, even when Judge was active. Consequently, these final nine games of the regular season carry little significance. Should the division race unexpectedly tighten up in a few days, the Yankees can adjust, but their main focus over the coming week must be the postseason picture. This means giving key bullpen arms a break, organizing the starting rotation for the Wild Card Series, and taking other strategic steps.
“Playing without Judge is a tough blow; we all recognize that he is the premier hitter in baseball,” Cody Bellinger noted (via MLB.com). “But our group’s mentality is that we have to find a way to get it done. The sheer amount of skill in this clubhouse is undeniable. I have complete faith that we possess the talent needed to go out there, perform, and defeat any opponent.”
With the playoffs starting in less than a fortnight, Judge’s calf issue raises several pressing concerns for both the player and the franchise. Here are three critical questions facing Judge, followed by three for the team.
Three questions for Judge
1. Can he make it back for the playoffs? Ultimately, this is the most critical question. The Yankees’ roster is constructed around Judge operating as the game’s most dominant batter, and when he is sidelined, the offense struggles heavily. New York featured one of the least productive offenses in the league during his previous absence due to a rib fracture. To borrow a classic New York baseball expression, Judge is the true driving force behind this lineup.
Judge is eligible to return from the injured list on the final day of the regular season next Sunday. From a roster standpoint, he can be activated in time for October. However, his physical readiness remains a complete mystery. Calf issues typically take longer than 10 days to heal, though the Yankees are hoping for a quick recovery in this instance. There is a strong possibility that New York will have to navigate at least the Wild Card Series—and potentially more—without their star slugger.
2. Will he perform at his usual level upon returning? Judge did not participate in a minor-league rehab stint before coming back from his rib injury, and the lack of preparation was evident. He managed just four hits in 23 at-bats (.174) with a single walk and 13 strikeouts over his seven-game return before hurting his calf. His timing at the plate was completely off. His solitary home run came off a mistake-prone breaking ball; otherwise, opposing pitchers easily blew fastballs past him.
To put that in perspective, Judge swung and missed at 41% of the fastballs he faced during those seven games, which is more than double the league average of 19%. This visual demonstrates what it looks like when a hitter misses on more than two out of every five swings against heaters:
TruMedia
It is hardly shocking that a hitter who skipped a rehab assignment after being out for over three months looked rusty. Both Judge and the organization anticipated that finding his rhythm would take some time, a compromise they were willing to accept. The priority was always having him fully prepared for the postseason, rather than the end of the regular season.
While these last nine matchups do not mean much in the standings, they were incredibly valuable for Judge’s preparation. He desperately needed live plate appearances to recover his timing and re-establish himself as the elite hitter he has always been. The calf strain puts an abrupt stop to that process, leaving Judge with far fewer opportunities to find his form before the stakes are raised.
3. Will he be healthy enough to play defense? There is a potential scenario where Judge plays through the calf strain purely as a designated hitter, running at less than full speed. How the team would structure its defense in such a case remains unclear. Ben Rice currently occupies the DH spot and has been New York’s top hitter outside of Judge. Meanwhile, platoon options Luis Gárcia Jr. and Paul Goldschmidt are locked into first base.
Unless the Yankees make an unorthodox adjustment, such as moving Gárcia back to second base (where he struggled significantly on defense) or putting Rice back behind the plate (where his defense was also a major liability), using Judge as a DH would require benching one of their most productive bats. The front office will cross that bridge when they get to it, and not a moment before.
Three questions for the Yankees
1. Who will provide the right-handed power? The Yankees’ lineup leans very heavily to the left side, making Judge’s right-handed presence crucial for balance. Only the Cleveland Guardians have logged fewer plate appearances from right-handed hitters this year. Friday’s lineup against Diamondbacks left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez might mirror what New York deploys against southpaws in October:
- 1B Paul Goldschmidt, RHB
- LF Cody Bellinger, LHB
- RF Heliot Ramos, RHB
- DH Ben Rice, LHB
- 3B Amed Rosario, RHB
- CF Spencer Jones, LHB
- SS George Lombard Jr., RHB
- C Austin Wells, LHB
- 2B Anthony Volpe, RHB
Goldschmidt and Ramos excel against left-handed pitchers. Bellinger and Rice have also been highly effective in left-on-left matchups. Jones has shown promise against lefties in the majors, despite some struggles against southpaws in the minor leagues. Rosario, however, is enduring his worst season against left-handed pitching. The bottom third of the order is unlikely to offer much offensive production, regardless of who is on the mound.
That batting order would look significantly more dangerous with Judge occupying the third spot. However, perhaps this issue is not as severe as it appears. Since the trade deadline, the Yankees have registered the league’s highest batting average (.289) and on-base percentage (.362) against lefties, along with the third-best slugging percentage (.456)—all while Judge was mostly absent or non-impactful when active.
It is highly probable that the Yankees will face the Red Sox in the Wild Card Series, a team that features three solid left-handed starters (Jake Bennett, Ranger Suárez, Payton Tolle) along with a dominant lefty relief duo (Aroldis Chapman, Erik Miller). To get past Boston, New York will need their right-handed hitters to step up, and now the availability of their most dangerous right-handed bat is in doubt.
2. Can the pitching staff carry the load? Even with Judge sidelined for over three months, the Yankees have maintained the American League’s best run differential (+143) and the second-best record overall (89-64). Much of that success is due to their pitching staff. New York has surrendered just 3.68 runs per game this season, leading the majors. Since the trade deadline, that mark has dropped to an exceptional 3.37 runs allowed per contest.
However, some warning signs are starting to emerge. Gerrit Cole has given up eight home runs over his previous three starts, with five coming on a four-seam fastball that lacks the elite profile it once had. Max Fried’s velocity has dropped slightly since coming back from an elbow bone bruise late last month—an injury that has landed him on the IL twice this season.
Cam Schlittler, a front-runner for the AL Cy Young, has reached a career-high 184 ⅔ innings with two regular-season outings left before the playoffs. High-leverage relievers Paul Blackburn, David Bednar, and Brent Headrick have logged a tremendous amount of work this year and have recently shown signs of decreased velocity, suggesting that their heavy usage may be catching up to them.
In Judge’s absence, the Yankees rely heavily on run prevention. Their biggest strength is an incredibly effective pitching staff that excels at limiting hard contact, particularly in preventing fly balls from leaving the park. Without Judge in the lineup, the pitching staff’s performance and overall run-prevention capabilities will be vital. Losing Judge significantly reduces their room for error.
3. What is the status of their other injured players? Judge is not the sole Yankee working through an injury. Center fielder Trent Grisham has been sidelined since September 4 with a Grade 2 hamstring strain. On Friday, Boone indicated that Grisham is well along in his running program and could potentially return before the regular season concludes. His return would provide valuable outfield depth if Judge remains out for a while.
Infielder Jazz Chisholm Jr. has been out since injuring his thumb on a slide into second base on September 8. Boone mentioned that Chisholm is expected to be activated when the Yankees return for their homestand next week. Although he has had an up-and-down season, Chisholm was playing some of his best baseball right before his injury, offering a vital blend of speed and defensive capability.
Left-handed pitcher Ryan Weathers is recovering from a flexor strain, having last pitched on August 22. Weathers is currently throwing bullpen sessions, though Boone confirmed he will not be activated before the regular season ends. Once Weathers is ready, he will transition to a relief role. He has previous bullpen experience, and while the Yankees could benefit from middle-relief depth, he must first complete his rehab.
At the very least, having Chisholm and Grisham back would provide the Yankees with more lineup versatility in Judge’s absence, even if used in platoon roles. Integrating Weathers would also be straightforward, considering he allowed one run or fewer in six of his last seven starts prior to the injury. Ultimately, though, the Yankees’ postseason hopes rest on Judge’s health and performance; everything else is secondary.
