When Could Mercedes Win the F1 Championship in 2026?

The 2026 Formula 1 season has witnessed Mercedes make a comeback to its previous dominant form, positioning itself to achieve its first double championship win since the disrupted 2020 season caused by COVID.

Kimi Antonelli and George Russell currently lead the drivers’ championship, with Antonelli enjoying a 102-point lead, and Mercedes ahead of second-placed Ferrari by 134 points in the constructors’ standings.

This strong position comes as a result of the Silver Arrows securing 11 wins out of 17 races, most of which occurred early in the season before competitors began to close the performance gap.

Nonetheless, Mercedes is on track to secure its first drivers’ championship title since 2020, following a period dominated by Max Verstappen and a championship win for Lando Norris, with a parallel situation unfolding in the constructors’ category.

The last time the Silver Arrows clinched that championship was in 2021, during which time Red Bull and McLaren have gained an edge during the ground-effect era; however, with six races still to take place in 2026, glory seems imminent for Mercedes.

Antonelli might seize his inaugural world title in Austin next race, although it’s more likely to occur a week later in Mexico. Meanwhile, Mercedes may need to wait slightly longer for its team title.

What are the chances for teams aiming for the F1 2026 world title?

Andrea Kimi Antonelli, Mercedes, Lewis Hamilton, Ferrari

Photo by: James Sutton / LAT Images

In the 2026 F1 world constructors’ championship, there are still 258 points available, contingent upon the races in Qatar and Abu Dhabi proceeding as planned amid ongoing conflicts in the Middle East.

This leaves four teams mathematically capable of contending for the championship: Mercedes leads Ferrari by 134 points, McLaren by 239 points, and Red Bull by 246 points, while Racing Bulls in fifth place trails by 478 points.

Can Mercedes secure the F1 2026 title at the US GP?

As F1 approaches the checkered flag in Austin next week, there will be 215 points still available in the 2026 constructors’ championship.

This indicates that the United States Grand Prix could see both McLaren and Red Bull eliminated from the title race, since they would need to be within 214 points after the Austin race.

Mercedes holds nine more wins than either team, meaning that even if McLaren and Red Bull reduce the gap to 215 points in Texas, they would still be ruled out due to the victories’ countback.

Achieving this would require the reigning champions and Red Bull to score at least 25 and 32 points more than Mercedes, respectively, thus Ferrari remains the only legitimate competitor to the German team.

Since the Scuderia will still be within 214 points of Mercedes after the United States, it’s evident that the constructors’ title won’t be declared next weekend.

When could Mercedes clinch the F1 2026 title?

Andrea Kimi Antonelli, Mercedes

Photo by: Sam Bagnall / Sutton Images

The most unfavorable outcome for Ferrari in Austin would be experiencing a complete non-scoring event while Mercedes finishes first and second, resulting in a 177-point separation.

If such an improbable scenario unfolds, the German team would head to Mexico City with a shot at claiming its ninth constructors’ title, tying it with Williams in the all-time rankings, trailing behind Ferrari (16) and McLaren (10).

Provided the races in Qatar and Abu Dhabi proceed, there would be a total of 172 points still available across the four races following Mexico. Therefore, under the aforementioned scenario in Austin, Mercedes must ensure that Ferrari does not outscore it by six points at the Mexican race.

Furthermore, throughout this season, Mercedes has not achieved a clean sweep of points from a race where Ferrari received none, as shown in the table below—excluding sprint races since there are no remaining in 2026.

Taking into consideration these figures, Mercedes has averaged a lead of 7.6 points over Ferrari throughout the 17 races, meaning if this trend continues in the next two races, it would result in a 149-point advantage.

Thus, for Mercedes to secure the title in Mexico becomes increasingly difficult. The grand prix following that, in Brazil, appears to be the more likely opportunity for the Silver Arrows to be crowned world champions.