The 2026 Major League Baseball regular season is wrapping up, with tonight marking one of the final three Fridays before postseason baseball gets underway. It continues to blow my mind that Toronto’s standout star Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has failed to hit a single home run at Rogers Centre this year across 241 at-bats. In fact, setting aside the playoffs, his last home run in Toronto occurred on August 17 of last year. While Guerrero isn’t typically expected to hit 40 home runs, he usually records somewhere between 25 and 30.
Unfortunately, I cannot recommend backing him tonight at +640 odds with Baltimore in town. For starters, Guerrero has managed just one home run this month over the course of 35 at-bats. Furthermore, he has hit only a single home run in 24 lifetime at-bats against the Orioles’ projected starter, Kyle Bradish. Nevertheless, this series is highly significant, carrying heavy implications for the American League Wild Card standings. As for tonight’s MLB prop betting market, the most hitter-friendly venues (like Colorado, Sacramento, and Cincinnati) are not on tonight’s schedule, forcing us to search elsewhere.
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Anyone looking to get involved in MLB betting, especially regarding home run props, should check out my selected plays for Friday’s slate. Over the past four MLB campaigns, I have generated a profit of $1,681 on baseball selections. You can access more of my daily recommendations on SportsLine, as well as in the private SportsLine Discord channel, which hosts a vibrant group of betting fans and analysts.
On the previous Friday, my home run selections focused on Atlanta’s Matt Olson at +520 and New York’s Jazz Chisholm at identical odds. Earlier in the year, Olson seemed like a strong contender for the season home run title, but he is currently in a severe power drought and finished 0-for-4 during last week’s matchup in Philadelphia. Chisholm, a highly regarded pending free agent who is unfortunately sidelined on the injured list, also went hitless in San Diego. It is quite uncommon for me to miss out on at least one player exceeding 1.5 total bases. Keep in mind that for all my home run recommendations, I favor the Over 1.5 total bases market even more when wagering on the best sports betting apps.
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Top Home Run Selections for MLB Action on Friday, September 11
Austin Riley, Braves (+490, FanDuel)
An important NL East series gets underway tonight as Philadelphia travels to Atlanta for a 7:15 PM ET matchup, and if the Phillies have any hope of overtaking the Braves for the division crown, they likely need a clean sweep. I anticipate they will fall short tonight against Chris Sale, so we can dismiss that possibility. Wind conditions at Truist Park are projected to blow outward at roughly 7 mph.
My obsession with sports data occasionally gets the best of me; I was recently driving myself crazy trying to recall if I had featured a player from the same franchise as my primary pick in this article all season, and the answer is no. I bring this up because, as I just mentioned, I backed Atlanta’s Matt Olson last week, which proved unsuccessful—though we will revisit him shortly. Tonight, however, the Braves and particularly Austin Riley are too tempting to pass up, given how well many of Atlanta’s bats have historically performed against Phillies righty Aaron Nola, who gets the start.
Nola (6-10, 4.76 ERA) has represented the most vulnerable spot in Philadelphia’s starting rotation for much of the campaign, but a pitcher of his caliber was bound to bounce back, and the 33-year-old has indeed corrected his course. Over his past six starts, Nola has limited opponents to two or fewer earned runs, dropping his season ERA from a high of 5.55. Although he has still surrendered some long balls during this stretch, they have mostly been solo shots. Home runs have undeniably been his primary issue this year, as his 32 allowed rank third-highest across the major leagues.
Having spent his entire career in Philadelphia, it is no surprise that Nola has faced the Braves more than any other opponent, compiling 40 career starts and giving up 37 home runs to them. Riley endured a challenging first half of the year, posting a .329 slugging percentage and only nine home runs over 95 games. Since the All-Star break, however, Riley has bounced back with a .434 slugging percentage and seven home runs in 50 matchups. Crucially, he has dominated Nola historically, slashing six home runs and five doubles to go along with a .676 slugging percentage.
Atlanta offers a few other intriguing options tonight, such as Olson (who has four home runs and three doubles over 48 career at-bats against Nola) and Ronald Acuna Jr. (with four home runs and seven doubles in 62 at-bats).
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Jackson Chourio, Brewers (+398, DraftKings)
The Reds visit Milwaukee to open an NL Central series at 7:40 PM ET, which will air exclusively on Apple TV. While I would prefer this matchup to take place at Great American Ball Park, American Family Field still ranks among the top venues for home run rates in 2026. Plus, the retractable roof eliminates any weather concerns, though the team plans to leave it open if the pleasant evening conditions hold up.
The Brewers could potentially lock up the NL Central division by Sunday—something that pains me to say as a Cubs supporter—but they still need to keep winning to secure the top seed in the National League, which now looks like a two-team race between them and the Dodgers. Despite my dislike for Milwaukee, I would prefer to see them hold home-field advantage in a potential NLCS against anyone other than Chicago. That fan base has waited a long time for a World Series title.
The Brewers’ future looks incredibly bright, largely due to one of the National League’s premier young talents, 22-year-old outfielder Jackson Chourio. He has already established career highs with 23 home runs and a .491 slugging percentage, even after missing a significant portion of the early season due to injury. He heads into tonight’s game having homered in consecutive contests, and it promises to be highly entertaining to watch Chourio and Cubs young star Pete Crow-Armstrong battle it out in the division for years to come.
Cincinnati sends struggling left-hander Andrew Abbott (6-10, 4.43 ERA) to the mound, who has already given up 22 home runs this year, including four over his last two appearances. Abbott has struggled more on the road, where 13 of those home runs have occurred. Chourio has only faced him 10 times but is hitting .300 with two home runs and three walks in those matchups. Although the right-handed hitter actually has more home runs against righties this season (16), that is merely a function of volume; nearly all of his underlying hitting metrics are superior when facing left-handed pitching.
Another strong option is catcher/designated hitter William Contreras at +510, who has gone 7-for-22 with two home runs and a double in his career against Abbott.
