NBA Mailbag: Celtics’ Contender Status and Under-the-Radar Teams

Following what has seemed like the most drawn-out offseason in recent memory, the 2026-27 NBA campaign is rapidly approaching. Within less than three weeks, every one of the league’s 30 franchises will begin addressing crucial questions regarding their offseason moves and upcoming aspirations.

However, there is no need to delay. Appreciating everyone who submitted their questions, let us dive right in.

Absolutely, and this topic deserves far more attention than it is currently receiving.

Do I believe the 56-win Boston squad can run back the exact same blueprint without one of the NBA’s top 15 talents after he departed for the rival Philadelphia 76ers? It is unlikely.

Would I buy into Joe Mazzulla’s system powered by an experienced Paul George (hitting 40% from deep on almost seven shots per game) offering efficient playmaking, floor spacing, and defensive flexibility, alongside Mitchell Robinson’s knack for securing extra possessions and Mike Conley’s seasoned leadership—all surrounding a healthy Jayson Tatum? Without a doubt.

MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN - APRIL 03: Boston Celtics head coach Joe Mazzulla converses with Jayson Tatum #0 in the third quarter of their matchup with the Milwaukee Bucks at Fiserv Forum on April 03, 2026, in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. USER NOTE: Downloader accepts Getty Images License Agreement terms upon use. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)

During the third quarter, head coach Joe Mazzulla chats with Jayson Tatum in their game against the Milwaukee Bucks at Fiserv Forum on April 3, 2026, in Milwaukee. (Photo by Patrick McDermott/Getty Images)

(Patrick McDermott via Getty Images)

Boston’s potential ceiling this year stands in contrast to the highly publicized dominance of the Knicks in the East, which prompted numerous rival teams to load up on talent during the summer. Still, there is no reason the Celtics should not be viewed as frontrunners. Outstanding coaching? Indeed. A healthy, elite centerpiece? Yes. A dependable secondary star capable of self-creation and distribution? Yes. Superior perimeter shooting? Absolutely. Interior defense and second-chance boards? Covered.

The Celtics are strong. Seriously formidable.

To keep things straightforward, ‘overlooked’ in my view means a franchise is stronger than public opinion suggests or is not receiving the same level of spotlight as similar squads. A couple of groups stand out:

Atlanta Hawks: CJ McCollum was forced into a primary playmaker position that did not suit his natural strengths, leading to major struggles during the playoffs. I respect how the front office addressed these distribution issues by signing overlooked ball-handlers like Ryan Nembhard and Devin Carter, in addition to selecting Kingston Flemings out of Houston. Furthermore, I have always advocated for poaching role players from successful franchises, and adding Lu Dort and Aaron Wiggins from the Oklahoma City Thunder is bound to offer instant support on both defense and offense.

Los Angeles Clippers: The aftermath of the Kawhi Leonard/Aspiration inquiry is massive, awkward, and regrettable, raising the question of whether a team can truly be considered overlooked when they dominate national headlines. However, looking strictly at their on-court outlook, I expect the Clippers to comfortably surpass their projected win line of 28.5. I recently analyzed their potential roster dynamics for the 2026-27 season and see a realistic avenue to success, even if expectations remain muted.

Utah Jazz: While parting ways with Walker Kessler and his elite shot-blocking hurts, pairing Jaren Jackson Jr.’s defensive range with Lauri Markkanen’s perimeter shooting provides a distinct advantage in a brutal Western Conference. While the dynamic tandem of Darryn Peterson and Keyonte George will capture most fan attention and highlight reels, experienced swingman Josh Okogie serves as the true X-factor. Rated as a top-50 defensive force by DARKO, he shoots and runs the floor well enough to contribute offensively, and his relentless work ethic is nearly unmatched.

Oddsmakers have set Miami’s win projection at 45.5, placing them right on the edge of the play-in tournament. Interestingly, I believe the Heat could reach the 50-win mark if they played in the Western Conference, but a finish between 46 and 48 victories seems like the most realistic outcome for this roster.

I strongly anticipate Miami ending the campaign with a top-five defense. It is hard to find a tougher, more adaptable frontcourt duo than Giannis Antetokounmpo and Bam Adebayo (and that is without even mentioning the highly energetic Bobby Portis). Meanwhile, the additions of Klay Thompson and Tim Hardaway Jr. are expected to address the team’s historical shooting struggles (ranking 20th in three-point attempts and 12th in accuracy) and improve court spacing.

Will this be sufficient to make a deep run in the Eastern Conference?

The Heat possess the traits of a dangerous lower seed that opponents would dread facing in a best-of-seven series, but lingering offensive doubts prevent me from projecting them beyond an upset in the opening round. Can Davion Mitchell handle an increased playmaking load and scoring pressure? Is Andrew Wiggins capable of transitioning smoothly to a smaller offensive role with fewer shot attempts while staying productive? This roster feels slightly rushed in its construction to chase immediate success, and they still seem to be a couple of players short of true contention.

The most obvious choice would be Philadelphia, wouldn’t it? It is tough to identify any front office that elevated its championship aspirations more dramatically than the 76ers, who secured Jaylen Brown and LeBron James alongside high-quality depth pieces such as Dean Wade, Anfernee Simons, and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope.

However, you likely want a more nuanced take. Therefore, I will highlight the Hornets. Allow me to break it down.

In my view, the franchises that took the largest steps forward are those that built a clear foundation last year, kept their financial flexibility intact, and managed to upgrade their execution on at least one end of the floor.

For Charlotte, parting with LaMelo Ball was the defining moment, but his exit stripped the team of essential paint penetration, outside playmaking, court gravity, and perimeter efficiency. (While Miles Bridges also let loose from deep frequently, his declining percentages mean his absence from the perimeter will hurt less.)

Head coach Charles Lee has implemented a system centered on quick ball rotation, off-ball movement, and aggressive long-range shooting, which helped Charlotte rank second in three-point frequency and third in efficiency.

Lee favors a balanced offense over a single star-heavy approach—signaling a shift toward Coby White over Ball—having seen enough during White’s 21-game stretch to justify the transition. Although White shared heavy ball-handling duties like Ball, his scoring efficiency is superior, his assist metrics sit in the 85th percentile pointing to expanded distribution potential, and his overall production metrics indicate a highly promising trajectory.

The offseason acquisitions of Grayson Allen, Royce O’Neale, and Naz Reid make it clear that Lee intends to sustain Charlotte’s identity as a high-volume perimeter threat, despite ranking 20th in passing and 15th in total assists previously. By surrounding White with floor-spacers, he can counter the star-power difference between White and Ball, preventing opponents from collapsing the paint.

Below is a breakdown of the spacing assets now available to him, evaluated by NBA RAPM’s true shooting spacing data, which measures spot-up plays, handoffs, and screen actions:

  • Allen: 92nd percentile in true shooting volume, 80th percentile in true shooting accuracy

  • O’Neale: 75th percentile in true shooting volume, 91st percentile in true shooting accuracy

  • Reid: 97th percentile in true shooting volume, 68th percentile in true shooting accuracy

And looking at the returning players:

Charlotte established a clear identity and aggressively sought to optimize it. (Furthermore, O’Neale along with a fully healthy Dorian Finney-Smith will bolster their defensive schemes.) When you couple this with the massive haul of draft capital secured—including two future first-round picks, three pick swaps, and six second-rounders—it is difficult to find fault with their offseason execution.