The NFL is fresh off one of its most chaotic weeks in recent history, as the third slate of games matched an all-time record for matchups decided by a single score. Going by the Cleveland Browns’ unexpected victory against the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday, the fourth week of action looks to sustain that wild energy as we transition into October and wrap up the opening month of the regular season.
Of course, balancing professional duties, household chores, and the general hecticness of everyday life makes it challenging to keep up with every development across the league. For example, you might have missed the major trade that shook up the midweek, with the Cowboys landing talented cornerback Joey Porter Jr. in a deal with the Steelers. Furthermore, the schedule brings us an early morning matchup on Sunday, featuring the Commanders and the Colts squaring off across the pond in London.
As you prepare for another full slate of Sunday games, we want to ensure you are fully briefed before placing any of your weekly wagers. With this goal in mind, here is a breakdown of late-breaking Week 4 selections, featuring our five strongest plays.
Betting lines provided by DraftKings Sportsbook.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Philadelphia Eagles
- Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (Fox, Streaming on: Fubo, free trial available)
Both teams head into this Week 4 matchup recovering from highly disappointing away losses. Case Keenum picked apart the Philadelphia defense during “Monday Night Football,” forcing them to quickly regroup on a short week to face a Matthew Stafford-guided Rams squad. On the other hand, Los Angeles suffered a painful defeat in Denver, pushing the highly touted preseason favorite to a 1-2 record over their initial three games. While both franchises have fallen short of their high projections early on, the Rams seem better positioned to secure a victory in this spot, particularly with receiver Puka Nacua returning to the lineup.
Initially, backing the Eagles as home underdogs might look appealing, but historical trends suggest they are a risky bet in this scenario. Dating back to 2021—coinciding with Nick Sirianni taking over as head coach—Philadelphia has gone 0-5 on the moneyline and 1-4 against the spread when cast as home underdogs.
Observing their play this year, it is obvious that Philadelphia’s offensive attack remains a work in progress. The Eagles are the sole team in the league that has failed to put up points in the opening quarter this season, while also posting the worst three-and-out percentage (29%) recorded since 2025. Combine those offensive struggles with a defensive unit that has failed to force a single takeaway and has only logged three sacks, and the Rams have an ideal setup to build an early advantage and maintain control. As Monday’s performance demonstrated, forcing the Eagles into a heavy passing game plan yields underwhelming results, and they must navigate this Week 4 contest without the services of injured star receiver DeVonta Smith (hamstring).
Predicted Score: Rams 26, Eagles 20
Our Selection: Rams -3.5
Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (Fox, Streaming on: Fubo, free trial available)
This matchup carries high stakes for both NFC competitors, though the pressure is arguably greater on the Packers. Although Tampa Bay is floundering at 0-3 and recently lost Baker Mayfield to a thumb injury for several weeks, dropping this game would be highly embarrassing for Green Bay. Regardless of how porous their front line might be, failing to defeat a Mayfield-less Buccaneers squad led by undrafted rookie signal-caller Jalon Daniels would call the franchise’s entire trajectory into question. Jordan Love has had an uphill battle this year, recording the league’s second-highest off-target passing rate (19.4%) and the second-worst completion percentage (52.4%). That said, he has constantly played under fire, enduring the third-highest rate of defensive pressure (44.7%) in the NFL. While protection remains a major issue for Green Bay, Love should benefit from a cleaner pocket against a Tampa Bay defense that ranks second-to-last in pressure rate (28.3%). Furthermore, the Buccaneers have failed to cover in 12 consecutive games, marking the longest against-the-spread drought the league has seen since 1970.
Predicted Score: Packers 27, Buccaneers 20
Our Selection: Packers -3.5
Dallas Cowboys vs. Houston Texans
- Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (Fox, Streaming on: Fubo, free trial available)
For the second consecutive season, Houston has stumbled to an 0-3 start, and a repeat of their 2025 turnaround seems unlikely. The Texans’ front line is a massive vulnerability that continues to derail their entire offensive system. During passing plays, they have surrendered 52 pressures (third-worst in the NFL) and are tied for the second-most sacks allowed with 10. Their ground game is equally stagnant, producing a mere 3.6 yards per rushing attempt, which ranks as the fifth-worst average in the league, while their 2.15 yards gained after contact per rush stands as the second-lowest mark.
Consequently, even though the Cowboys’ defensive unit has been terrible, they could find a way to succeed against this struggling Houston offense. This outcome is even more likely if Dallas’ own offense continues its efficient scoring. So far, the Cowboys lead the league by converting a whopping 61.5% of their possessions into points. If Dak Prescott and the rest of the unit can establish an early advantage, C.J. Stroud will be forced into a passing script, exposing him to newly traded-for cornerback Joey Porter Jr., who is on track to play his first game in Dallas colors.
At the same time, it is worth questioning the strength of Houston’s home-field advantage at Reliant Stadium, given the likelihood of a massive influx of visiting Dallas supporters who live in or travel to the region.
Predicted Score: Cowboys 27, Texans 23
Our Selection: Cowboys +3
Los Angeles Chargers vs. Seattle Seahawks
We are sticking to our strategy and giving up a full touchdown with the Seahawks against a weaker opponent. Although this approach backfired last week against Marcus Mariota and the Commanders, the underlying reasoning remains solid. Seattle holds a strong claim as the top team in the league, particularly now that their Super Bowl-winning signal-caller has returned to the field. Granted, his performance included a pair of interceptions (one of which was returned for a score), but Sam Darnold still finished the day completing 31 of his 45 passing attempts for 379 yards and four touchdowns. Back in front of the home crowd, we should see a much sharper and highly productive outing from him.
Even if he struggles with ball security once more, the Chargers have proven they can drop games even when they win the turnover margin. Despite being +4 in turnovers against the Bills, they still managed to lose that game. Los Angeles currently appears entirely directionless as a franchise, particularly on the offensive side where they put up a mere 14.7 points per contest (the fourth-lowest mark in football). There is little reason to expect this unit to find its footing against a Mike Macdonald-coached defense that surrenders the third-fewest points per game (16.7) and the absolute fewest total yards per game (228.7).
Predicted Score: Seahawks 33, Chargers 20
Our Selection: Seahawks -7
Miami Dolphins vs. Minnesota Vikings
- Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET (Fox, Streaming on: Fubo, free trial available)
To state it gently, the season has been incredibly difficult for the Dolphins. While low expectations were already set for their competitiveness this year, their performance across the opening three weeks suggests they might go completely winless in 2026. Compounding their issues, they just lost standout running back De’Von Achane, who has been their most dynamic offensive playmaker.
Consequently, a highly deficient offense must now perform without its top weapon against a defense commanded by Brian Flores. Currently the defensive coordinator in Minnesota, Flores previously spent three years (2019-2021) as Miami’s head coach before his dismissal. He will undoubtedly be motivated to perform well against his old employer, which likely means bringing relentless pressure. The Vikings currently boast the league’s most aggressive defense, blitzing on 71% of plays. This presents a massive problem for a Miami front line that is tied for the third-worst mark with 9 sacks allowed. Although Minnesota will miss top wideout Justin Jefferson due to an ankle injury, his absence may not hinder them much with Flores dictating terms defensively.
Furthermore, statistical patterns heavily point toward a Minnesota victory and cover. Miami has gone 0-3 against the spread this year, failing to cover even when getting double-digit points in each of those games. Conversely, the Vikings have racked up an 8-0 straight-up record while going 7-1 against the spread over their past eight matchups. This looks primed to end in a lopsided victory.
Predicted Score: Vikings 27, Dolphins 10
Our Selection: Vikings -10.5
Remaining Matchups
Colts vs. Commanders (in London)
Predicted Score: Colts 30, Commanders 24
Our Selection: Colts -4.5
Cardinals vs. Giants
Predicted Score: Cardinals 27, Giants 23
Our Selection: Cardinals -2.5
Jaguars vs. Bengals
Predicted Score: Bengals 24, Jaguars 21
Our Selection: Bengals -2.5
Patriots vs. Bills
Predicted Score: Bills 30, Patriots 20
Our Selection: Bills -7
Jets vs. Bears
Predicted Score: Bears 27, Jets 24
Our Selection: Jets +3.5
Titans vs. Ravens
Predicted Score: Ravens 33, Titans 16
Our Selection: Ravens -11.5
Broncos vs. 49ers
Predicted Score: Broncos 23, 49ers 21
Our Selection: Broncos +3
Chiefs vs. Raiders
Predicted Score: Chiefs 30, Raiders 24
Our Selection: Chiefs -4.5
Lions vs. Panthers
Predicted Score: Lions 30, Panthers 27
Our Selection: Panthers +3.5
Falcons vs. Saints (Monday Night)
Predicted Score: Falcons 26, Saints 24
Our Selection: Falcons +2.5
