CLEVELAND — A crucial ALCS Game 5 that appeared to promise an exciting pitchers’ duel transformed into something entirely different on Sunday, as the Tampa Bay Rays defeated the Cleveland Guardians 3-1 at Progressive Field, placing them just one win away from a World Series appearance. Although the final score implies a tightly fought contest, the narratives surrounding the two starting pitchers reveal a different story.
When the AL Cy Young Award is declared next month, it’s highly anticipated that New York Yankees ace Cam Schlittler will be the recipient. Toronto’s Dylan Cease is poised to claim the runner-up position. Additionally, both Rays right-hander Drew Rasmussen and Guardians rookie lefty Parker Messick have compelling arguments to be the third finalist due to their remarkable regular seasons. Rasmussen stood third in fWAR (5.0) and fourth in ERA (2.67), right behind Schlittler and Cease; Messick finished fourth in fWAR (4.9) and third in ERA (2.56).
The starting pitchers for Game 5 on Sunday were as follows. Rasmussen had previously pitched six innings of two-run baseball in Game 1 — however, that ended in a Rays loss. Messick handled five innings, allowing three runs in Game 2 — which also resulted in a Guardians defeat. With the series tied at two games each, Sunday’s match offered each top pitcher the enticing opportunity to push his team closer to the American League championship.
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For neutral fans eager for maximum October intrigue, a blueprint for an ideal face-off could be traced back to July, when Rasmussen and Messick battled in a tight 1-0 victory for the Rays at Tropicana Field. In that contest, Messick limited the Rays to just one run over 7 ⅔ innings, while Rasmussen only permitted a single hit across seven shutout innings. If a similarly gripping matchup were expected on Sunday — this time with stakes raised extraordinarily high — that would necessitate some timely hitting to secure a narrow win. However, the hopes of a repeat nail-biter orchestrated by these elite starters were dashed rapidly.
On Sunday, the Rays overwhelmed Messick right from the outset, swiftly extinguishing any possibility of a traditional postseason pitching contest. While the exceptional rookie southpaw’s velocity has remained solid throughout the season, even as his workload has far surpassed his prior career highs, his command has suffered considerably in recent weeks. Messick struck out Junior Caminero twice with changeups in the first two innings, but that was the extent of his success. Despite allowing just one extra-base hit (Yandy Díaz’s double to start the game) and two runs, the persistent Rays lineup compelled him to throw 31 pitches in the first inning and 26 in the second, prompting Cleveland manager Stephen Vogt to resort to his bullpen much earlier than intended.
A Chandler Simpson leadoff double followed by a Liam Hicks RBI single pushed the score to 3-0 in favor of Tampa Bay during the third inning against Tim Herrin, the second of six Cleveland pitchers who took the mound in a losing effort on Sunday. This gave Rasmussen a comfortable buffer as he upheld his part for those wishing to witness elite starting pitching.
Rasmussen’s brilliance was evident in his initial October start, where he carried a no-hitter into the eighth inning against the Yankees in the ALDS. However, he wasn’t as sharp just six days prior in the series opener against Cleveland. The pivotal moment in Game 1 arose when Rays manager Kevin Cash delegated to Rasmussen, at 90 pitches, the task of confronting the bottom of Cleveland’s lineup in the seventh inning, with a 2-1 lead. Guardians catcher Patrick Bailey then ambushed a first-pitch cutter, launching it for a game-tying solo home run, which spoiled Rasmussen’s commendable performance. The Guardians built on this momentum against the Rays’ bullpen, culminating in a 7-3 victory.
A comparable situation occurred late in Rasmussen’s Game 5 showing. The right-hander had dominated through five scoreless innings, but he allowed a run in the sixth that brought the score to 3-1. The bottom segment of Cleveland’s lineup was set to bat in the seventh, and Rasmussen had already thrown 83 pitches. Cash’s decision to stick with his ace paid off this time.
After Nathaniel Lowe began with a single, Rasmussen engaged in a seven-pitch duel with Guardians rookie Travis Bazzana, culminating in a harmless popout. He then got back at Bailey for his Game 1 homer, inducing an inning-ending double play to cap his outing, completing seven innings of one-run baseball. It was a quintessential Rasmussen display, with his three fastballs (four-seam, sinker, cutter) keeping hitters off-kilter and a significant reliance on changeups yielding swings and poor contact throughout the evening.
“It is really fun because there’s so much more setting guys up,” Hicks shared, reflecting on working with Rasmussen behind the plate. “You’re thinking along a lot more — it’s not just power, where you’re just trying to beat the guy with the stuff. I think just with how good our defense is, you really have the trust [that] we don’t always need a strikeout.”
Tampa Bay’s outstanding Game 5 pitching did not conclude with Rasmussen. Lefty Cam Booser secured the first two outs of the eighth before Steven Kwan slapped a single to center, bringing José Ramírez to the plate as the potential tying run. Cash called upon Tyler Wells to face Ramírez, and Wells delivered, getting Ramírez to swing through a cutter elevated and outside for an inning-ending strikeout. He celebrated energetically as he left the mound, knowing he had completed the task for closer Bryan Baker.
“It’s probably the biggest at-bat of my career so far,” Wells contemplated afterward. “You don’t take that stuff for granted. You step out there, wanting to compete and deliver, but you can’t force it. You have to go out and execute pitches. I was just thankful to be in the game at that moment and to soak it all in and enjoy it.”
Baker’s chance for a save began with a leadoff walk to DeLauter, yet the All-Star right-hander retired the subsequent three batters to secure a 3-1 victory, putting Tampa Bay within striking distance of the World Series. Cleveland concluded the game without an extra-base hit for the first time in the postseason.
The ALCS now returns to Tropicana Field for Game 6 on Monday, an unusually quick turnaround following Friday’s rainout that removed the scheduled travel day on Sunday. The Rays will hand the ball to Freddy Peralta, who impressed in Game 2 and made a successful (though brief) relief appearance in Game 4.
Cleveland is still finalizing its pitching strategies, with Vogt stating postgame Sunday that Gavin Williams will not start on Monday with short rest, after he threw 70 pitches over five innings on Thursday (and saw a noticeable drop in his velocity during his final inning). The Guardians need to find a way to force Game 7 if they wish to allow Williams another opportunity to build on his impressive October performance up to this point.
Díaz, the sole player on the Rays’ ALCS roster who participated in the Fall Classic with Tampa Bay in 2020, sat at the podium Sunday following a three-hit game and articulated what is forthcoming with clear resolve.
“It’s a great opportunity,” Díaz said, through interpreter Kevin Vera, about being one win away from the World Series. “All of us are thinking of it.
“But it all concludes tomorrow. We’re going to win tomorrow.”
