On occasion, the NFL struggles with scheduling choices for its primetime broadcasts. At other times, however, the league simply falls victim to bad luck.
Back when the official schedule was released in May, selecting this Week 5 Thursday matchup seemed quite logical. The Dallas Cowboys consistently draw attention and generated significant hype over the spring. Meanwhile, despite a late-season slump last year, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers retained a star-studded lineup and entered the year as the projected NFC South champions. At minimum, a battle between Tampa Bay and Dallas promised to be highly engaging.
Virtually no one anticipated that the Buccaneers would experience such a steep decline by the fifth week of the season.
Tampa Bay was sitting at 0-3 when starting quarterback Baker Mayfield suffered a dislocated right thumb. Their backup plan at the position raised some eyebrows, as they opted for undrafted rookie Jalon Daniels. Following Mayfield’s injury, Daniels made history as the first undrafted rookie signal-caller since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger to start a matchup in Week 4 or sooner. The outcome went largely as expected; although Daniels performed respectably under pressure, the Buccaneers fell 17-14 to the Green Bay Packers, slipping to 0-4. Tampa Bay has managed just two victories in their previous 13 outings, placing head coach Todd Bowles in a precarious position.
Even though unpredictable outcomes are the norm in professional football, matching up against a winless Tampa Bay squad helmed by an undrafted rookie under center is undeniably a stroke of good fortune for Dallas. The Cowboys are coming off a comeback 34-30 victory over the Houston Texans. This win brought Dallas back to a 2-2 record, a respectable position given the struggles currently plaguing the NFC East. However, the Cowboys are not without their flaws. Their defensive unit currently ranks 31st in expected points added (EPA) allowed per play, outpacing only the Detroit Lions. While their offensive production has remained strong as anticipated, the defense has shown little progress since last year, when it set a franchise record for the most points conceded.
Fortunately for Dallas, the depleted Buccaneers are currently one of the few opponents that may struggle to capitalize on those defensive vulnerabilities.
Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott prepares to guide his squad into a primetime Thursday matchup against the Buccaneers. (AP Photo/Chris O’Meara)
(ASSOCIATED PRESS)
Which team is more desperate?
The answer hinges on whether you believe a 0-4 record has already doomed Tampa Bay’s season. It very well might have. If Baker Mayfield is able to return by Week 6, a 1-4 record would still keep them alive in a weak NFC South. That said, no franchise in league history has ever recovered from an 0-5 start to reach the postseason. Because the Buccaneers have looked so thoroughly listless, this matchup carries far higher stakes for Dallas. Sitting at 2-2, they trail only the New York Giants—who recently lost quarterback Jaxson Dart for the year—in their division. Dropping a game to Jalon Daniels and a struggling Tampa Bay team would not only damage their divisional standing but trigger a massive media storm during Dallas’ 10-day break before their next contest.
Player to watch: Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb
As a premier wideout in this league for several seasons, Lamb is currently on track to completely eclipse his personal bests. He is currently pacing the NFL with an impressive 124.5 receiving yards per contest, easily surpassing his previous high of 102.9 yards. Furthermore, he is pulling in 9.3 receptions per game, a mark he has never previously reached. His spectacular performance last week—racking up 17 receptions for 189 yards and securing the decisive touchdown—prolonged a dominant stretch that marked his third consecutive game exceeding 100 yards. While Tampa Bay’s secondary has performed respectably, limiting opponents to under 245 passing yards per game this year, containing the league’s most dangerous pass-catcher will be a massive undertaking.
Insights from the betting market, by Ben Fawkes
Initially set at Cowboys -3.5, this line surged to -9.5 on lookahead boards, fueled by Tampa Bay’s persistent struggles, Baker Mayfield’s sideline status, and Dallas’ dynamic offensive attack. The Buccaneers have failed to win or cover the spread in any of their four games, and their offense managed a mere 134 passing yards and 14 points against Green Bay under Daniels’ guidance. Even if Daniels finds some success against a vulnerable Dallas secondary, keeping pace with the Cowboys’ scoring output remains highly unlikely. Additionally, performing in a hostile, primetime environment at AT&T Stadium is a far cry from an early afternoon home kickoff. Although the spread has dipped slightly, it currently sits between Dallas -7.5 and -8.5 across sportsbooks. I anticipate the Cowboys will cover, a sentiment shared by the majority of public bettors backing them heavily.
Discover further analysis from Ben at the Yahoo Sports betting hub.
Dallas is heavily favored to dominate Tampa Bay to kick off Week 5, but the NFL is famous for unexpected outcomes, even on Thursday nights. Below are three key fantasy storylines to keep an eye on during the broadcast.
1. Can Jalon Daniels take a step forward in start number two? The undrafted rookie faced a daunting task last week, forced into a starting role just a month into his professional career. It was no surprise that he threw for only 148 yards, with no Tampa Bay receiver eclipsing the 40-yard mark. Fantasy managers are rooting for Daniels to succeed, if only to help revitalize the value of the Buccaneers’ pass-catchers.
2. How will targets be shared in the Dallas aerial attack? CeeDee Lamb put on an absolute clinic in last week’s victory over Houston, turning 21 targets into a massive 17-catch, 189-yard, one-touchdown performance. On the other hand, George Pickens received only three targets, though he made the most of them with 75 yards and two defensive pass interference calls. While Lamb is once again the undisputed focal point of the offense, Dallas recognizes the necessity of keeping Pickens involved in the game plan.
3. How heavily will Bucky Irving be featured? Irving logged a respectable 16 carries for 61 yards last week, but other players cut into his scoring opportunities, with Sean Tucker punching in a goal-line score and Kenneth Gainwell catching a touchdown pass. Of greater concern to fantasy managers is Irving’s complete lack of involvement in the passing game last week. He recorded seven receptions back in Week 1 against Cincinnati, a performance that now feels like a distant memory.
Find additional fantasy insights from Scott at the Yahoo Sports fantasy hub.
